Game Time: 7:30 PM ET, Wednesday, March 9th, 2022 

Venue:  FTX Arena, Miami, Florida

Where to Watch: ESPN

DraftKings:  Spread:  Heat -7.5

Fanduel:  Spread:  Heat -7

BetMGM:  Spread: Heat -7.5

Suns: 51-13, 1st place Western Conference

Heat: 44-22, 1st place Eastern Conference

We finally have it!  A battle of the NBA’s best of each conference.  Is this a Finals matchup?... No.  There are still a lot of games left for Miami to lose the top spot to the 76ers who are closing fast.  And while it is crazy to think the Memphis Grizzlies will overtake the Phoenix Suns… with the Sun’s pretty 8 game lead… stranger things have happened when a team loses a player as great as PG Chris Paul for the rest of the regular season.  The story lines are flying fast and furious.  Is there a great betting opportunity here?... Let’s check the Numbers.

The Phoenix Suns have won 7 of their last ten games.  And only went 4-6 ATS during that stretch.  The bigger story here is that the Suns are 2-3 over the five games since the all-star break.  The game before the All-star break Chris Paul once again injured his hand… he even joked that his hand surgeon had become part of his family.  It is soul-crushing to think that a Hall of Fame Career as great as CP3’s could have yet another chance at a ring taken away by a finish line injury.  All hope is not lost however… the Suns are deep and ready to play.  The current spat of losses isn’t because they are missing CP3, but also that they are missing SG Devin Booker who tested positive for Covid and must miss either ten days or reach a place where he has tested negative twice in 24 hours.  Once Devin returns to a lineup that has Mikal Bridges, Deandre Ayton, and Jae Crowder… plus a menagerie of quality bench shooters the Suns could go on yet another run in the last month of the season.  

The Good News in the desert is that the Suns will get the Orlando Magic tonight before they have to go toe to toe with the Miami Heat.  The Magic will be an easy win… the Magic have no one capable of stopping Deandre Ayton or scoring on Deandre Ayton with any consistency. Plus the backups on Phoenix have much more experience than the starter on Orlando.  The Suns get a one night cakewalk to pad the stats… and get to start testing Devin Booker TONIGHT to see if he can play tomorrow.  Sources tell me that Devin Booker has been completely asymptomatic… also that he likes honey jalapeno cornbread with his BBQ… it really is the best cornbread.  

The Miami Heat have won 8 of their last ten games!  They are on a 3 game winning streak. They went 6-3-1 ATS during that stretch.  The two losses were to the Milwaukee Bucks and the Dallas Mavericks. Both of those teams have an elite MVP type player.  Which may ultimately be Miami’s achilles heel.  Miami is strong everywhere but not All-NBA anywhere.  Their leading scorer SF Jimmy Butler is a great two-way player, but at 21.4 ppg is not among the game’s elite scorers.  Their leading rebounder Bam Adebayo pulls in 10.3 rebounds per game… but at 18 ppg is simply not among the NBA’s elite big men like Joklic, Embiid, Giannis.  Adebayo is about the same in production as Ayton for the Suns unless you look at FG% where Ayton is better by 10 percentage points. Still Miami is an elite defensive team that may replace the need for a totally dominant scorer.

AL McMordie cashed the Milwaukee Bucks yesterday, and is 10-3 his last 13 in the NBA. Big Al's also CASHED 21 of his last 30 Triple Packs, and he has another 3-Game Card for you to TRIPLE YOUR PLEASURE on Monday. Don't miss out on the EASY $$$$. Hop on board right now! Go get it!!  Get Big Al’s picks!   You can discover the best  picks right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers. NCAAF, NFL, MLB, college football… get positive value from all your bets! Expert picks!  Fun fact… winning a wager is much better than making a wager!

Phoenix is 51-13 on the season, but 34-30 ATS.  They have logged 32 Overs, 31 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 23-6 in road games.

The Heat are 44-22 on the season, but 39-26-1 ATS.  They have notched 39 Overs and 27 Unders.  They are 23-7 in home games… A home game mark that is only bettered by the Phoenix Suns.

The Suns are 5th in scoring with 113.9 ppg, 10th in rebounds with 45,3 per game, and 2nd in AST/TO ratio with 2.1.  They rank 7th on defense while allowing 106.2 ppg to opponents.  That ranking has fallen two spaces since CP3 went out with injury… so don’t put too much stock in the car without the engine.

The Heat are 16th in scoring with 109.7 ppg, 17th in rebounds with 44.4 per game, and 13th in AST/TO ratio with 1.7.  They rank 4th on defense while holding opponents to 104.6 ppg.  The Heat are finally all healthy except for Markieff Morris who has missed the entire season with a neck injury.  They will be firing on all cylinders against a team that is missing their 2 best players.

Our prediction for Wednesday, March 9th is…. Heat 123 - Suns 117

The Heat should take this one… and depending on the spread you get from your book… should cover.  The Suns have been playing SG Landry Shamet and SF Cameron Johnson a lot since CP3 and Devin Booker have been out… They were hoping the increase in shooting would pay off… it just hasn’t yet.  Those guys need a bench spot to cover the weaknesses on defense that they bring onto the floor. Conversely Tyler Herro and Duncan Robiinson can take the court together to match the shooting since the defense won’t be in their faces.

(Will update the trends as the numbers settle tonight)

Heat: Markieff Morris PF (neck) Out

Suns:  SG Devin Booker (covid) Out ** PG Chris Paul (thumb) Out ** PF Cameron Johnson (quad) Out ** SF Dario Saric (knee) Out Indefinitely ** PF Frank Kaminsky (knee) Out

Suns: SF Mikal Bridges, PF Jae Crowder, C Deandre Ayton, SG Landry Shamet, PG Cameron Payne

Heat: PF PJ Tucker, SF Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo, PG Kyle Lowry, SG Duncan Robinson

Suns

Points: Devin Booker 25.6

Assists: Chris Paul 10.7

Rebounds: Deandre Ayton 9.7

Steals: Chris Paul 1.9

Blocks: JaVale McGee 1.1

Heat

Points: Jimmy Butler 21.4

Assists: Kyle Lowry 7.8

Rebounds: Bam Adebayo 10.3

Steals: Jimmy Butler 1.8

Blocks: Bam Adebayo 0.8

Suns: Monty Williams

Heat: Erik Spoelstra