Phoenix Suns vs. Detroit Pistons Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 1/16/2022

Time: 1 p.m. ET

Venue: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI

Where to watch: BSDET, BSAZ

DraftKings: Suns -11.5

BetMGM: Suns -11.5

Caesars: Suns -11.5

Suns: 32-9 (1st place, Western Conference)

Pistons: 10-31 (14th place, Eastern Conference)

So, this is going to be a weird one to call. And it has more to do with the weird basketball that the Detroit Pistons have played as of late compared to the Phoenix Suns just being the better team.

I really like Detroit covering the 11.5 points they're getting over the defending Western Conference champions.

Normally with a talent gap this wide, I'd take the favorites in a rout. The Suns would normally cover in a game like this and establish dominance in a game like this where the talent is such a wide gap.

But it's hard to look at the Pistons over the last four games and not like what you've seen. Detroit has won three of the last four and while the Pistons are a lowly 10-31 this season, as expected, they're 19-21 against the spread and have somehow been a near .500 club when it comes to the spread. 

The Pistons have wins at home against the Orlando Magic, Utah Jazz and Toronto Raptors over the last week. The lone loss against the Chicago Bulls came on the second night of a back-to-back to the tune of 46 points. It's hard to even expect a win against the Bulls nowadays.

"We're finally getting into a rhythm and figuring out the best way to play together," Pistons forward Hamidou Diallo said. "We've got so many young guys in our locker room and they are learning that it is a long year. You can't get too high or low after one game."

The Pistons are still a ways away from actually being a competitive team once again, but they've shown flashes of staying competitive in games. Detroit is 11-9 against the spread at home this season and even 8-2 when a home dog between 6.5 and 12 points.

Coming off an upset win, however, the Pistons find themselves just 10-22 ATS the past three seasons and only 1-6 this season. Again, normally that would be cause for the Suns to just run away with this game considering Phoenix is off to the second-best start through 41 games in their franchise history at 32-9.

And with the Suns now getting back to full strength with Deandre Ayton back, the Suns are a well-oiled machine and proved it after he and Devin Booker dominated against the Indiana Pacers on Friday; Booker finished with 35 points while Ayton had 27 points and 12 rebounds.

"I'm a scoring guard and I get paid to make plays and put the ball in the bucket, that doesn't come without Deandre setting good screens, Chris [Paul] getting the ball there on time," Booker said. "Deandre having a dominant first half (21 points) made things open things up for all of us in the second half."

So why after all of that do I feel the Pistons cover? It’s an early Sunday game and the Suns are due for a couple of letdowns. Early games are always a crapshoot, and while the Suns are 4-0 against the spread on Sunday games this season, they’re 3-4 after allowing 95 points or less in the prior game. There’s a correlation there, and I can see the Pistons keeping this one as close as they can. Suns by 8

The Suns are 11-7 ATS on the road this season.

The Suns are 48-25 ATS the past three seasons after winning two of three.

The Suns are 38-17 straight up as a road favorite the past three seasons.

The Pistons are 7-8 ATS in non-conference games this season.

The Pistons are 8-20 ATS off a home win the past three seasons.

PG: Chris Paul

SG: Devin Booker
SF: Mikal Bridges
PF: Jae Crowder
C: Deandre Ayton

PG: Killian Hayes

SG: Cade Cunningham
SF: Hamidou Diallo
PF: Saddiq Bey
C: Isaiah Stewart