Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 3/24/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Thursday, Mar 24, 2022
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Where to watch: NBA TV

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Nuggets -3.5
BetMGM: Nuggets -3.5
Caesars: NL

Season record
Suns: 59-14
Nuggets: 43-30

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Suns - Nuggets preview and analysis


We have reached the point in the time-space continuum where the Phoenix Suns will win games no matter what in the world is the case. No Chris Paul? No problem. A depth piece like Cam Johnson gone? No worries, there's still Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton kicking the proverbial butt.

But I can understand why the Suns are coming into Thursday's matchup with the Denver Nuggets as the underdog in this matchup. When you win your sixth straight game and are approaching 60 wins on the second leg of a back-to-back, you're allowed at least some leeway when it comes to not being perfect.

It's absolutely remarkable that the Suns might be the quietest 60-win team we've seen in a long time, and yet might be the most dangerous we've seen in a bit. Phoenix won its sixth straight on Wednesday in a 125-116 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves and got the last laugh in the battle of the star big men.

Ayton scored a career-high 35 points to go along with 14 rebounds, outplaying Karl-Anthony Towns (15 points, 11 rebounds) as Phoenix took down one of the hottest teams in the league on its own home court. Booker finished with 28 points while going 13 of 16 from the free-throw line, and Landry Shamet even had 19 points off the bench to remind everyone that he's available whenever and can hit shots.

"We know where we want to go. You've got to win games like this on the road. So this is not just practice for us. We value these experiences, and you've got to have a level of mental fortitude and stamina," coach Monty Williams said.

Even when it came to the Suns playing a team that's fighting to avoid the play-in tournament, they still came out and took it to Minnesota in the second half, outscoring them 74-52. It was just another sign that the battle-tested Suns were ready for the challenge, while Minnesota still has some room to grow in order to get to that next level.

"That's a playoff environment," Ayton said.

And it'll likely be another one on Thursday, despite that back-to-back, when the Suns visit the Nuggets in what will be another playoff-like game for Denver. The Nuggets find themselves in deadlock with the Timberwolves for that sixth and final seed to avoid the play-in group.

But the Nuggets, despite the all-around greatness that is Nikola Jokic, have failed to capitalize on certain games to this point and have lost four of seven. Following losses to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics over the weekend, Denver rebounded with a 127-115 win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday led by 30 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists from the reigning MVP.

It was the 10th straight game that Jokic has led Denver in points, rebounds and assists. Sometimes we tend to forget that the man is 7-foot tall and is sometimes damn-near unguaradble. Seven players scored in double figures, with 16 points each from Jeff Green, Aaron Gordon and Bones Hyland.

"I'm extremely pleased," said Denver coach Mike Malone said, who agreed to a contract extension on Wednesday. "Yes, Nikola is an MVP, but this team with nine games to go, needs everybody to step their game up down the stretch and alleviate some of the pressure that's put on Nikola every night."

And with nine games remaining, there is likely not enough time to get Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray back for the playoffs, and I wouldn't bet on either being available at some point. But the Nuggets are still good enough to get in the playoffs, and if they've learned their lessons from getting outworked by the Suns in the second round last year, they might be a tough out. We'll see based on this game.

Prediction


I'm not one to take the team on the back-to-back, and as much as I want to take the Suns, I'll stay away from this one. That altitude in Denver, on a SEGABABA, is not a great combination for this group. I think Phoenix is allowed one bad night, and this will be it. Denver needs all the confidence after their opponents did them a solid on Wednesday. Denver, but in a close one, gets it done. Nuggets by 5

Betting trends


The Suns are 62-46 ATS on the road in their past three seasons.

The over is 28-6 on the road in Suns games this season.

The over is 67-34 when the Suns win five or six of their last seven games over the past three seasons.

The over is 50-28 when the Nuggets hit the over in consecutive games the past three seasons.

The Nuggets are 7-8 ATS against Pacific Division opponents this season.

Projected starting lineup


Suns:
PG: Cam Payne
SG: Landry Shamet
SF: Mikal Bridges
PF: Jae Crowder
C: Deandre Ayton

Nuggets:
PG: Monte Morris
SG: Will Barton
SF: Aaron Gordon
PF: Jeff Green
C: Nikola Jokic

Key injuries


Suns: Chris Paul (thumb, out), Cameron Johnson (quad, out)

Nuggets: Michael Porter Jr. (back, out), Jamal Murray (knee, out)

Statistical leaders


Suns:
Points: Devin Booker -- 25.9
Rebounds: Deandre Ayton -- 10.0
Assists: Chris Paul -- 10.7

Nuggets:
Points: Nikola Jokic -- 26.2
Rebounds: Nikola Jokic -- 13.6
Assists: Nikola Jokic -- 8.0

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Phoenix Suns - Denver Nuggets prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NBA projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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