Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/29/2023

Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Saturday, April 29, 2023

Venue:  Ball Arena, Denver, CO

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Suns +2.5, Nuggets -2.5; Over/Under:  225 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Suns +2.5, Nuggets -2.5; Over/Under:  225 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Suns +2.5, Nuggets -2.5; Over/Under:  225 points

Phoenix Suns:  45-37 (2nd place, Pacific Division)

Denver Nuggets:  53-29 (1st place, Northwest Division)

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Phoenix Suns:  7-3 last 10

Denver Nuggets:  6-4 last 10

The Suns finished the regular season with a 45-37 record overall and they were 17-24 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 4 game winning streak with all 4 of those wins coming against the LA Clippers in their last 4 games. In game 5 of that series, which was the final game, Devin Booker led the team in points in that game with 47 while Kevin Durant was next on the team with 31 points. Devin Booker led the team in assists in that game with 10 while Deandre Ayton led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 54.3% from the field, 50% from 3-point range, and 87.5% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 113.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 111.6 PPG against them. The Suns have an ATS record of 44-41-2 this season and their O/U record is 45-39-3.

The Nuggets finished the regular season with a 53-29 record overall and they were 34-7 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a win against the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last game. Jamal Murray led the team in points in that game with 35 while Nikola Jokić was next on the team with 28 points. Nikola Jokić led the team in assists in that game with 12 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 17. They were 40% from the field, 35.3% from 3-point range, and 88.9% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 115.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.5 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 47-39-1 this season and their O/U record is 41-45-1.

The current betting odds have the Nuggets listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 1 of a 7-game series between the 1st seeded Nuggets and the 4th seeded Suns for the 2nd round of the playoffs in the NBA Western Conference. Both of these teams ended their series in the 1st round in 5 games but the Suns were very fortunate to face a Clippers team that was missing their 2 best players by the end of the series. The Suns were able to breeze by the Clippers after that but they are going to have a much tougher challenge in this series against the healthy Nuggets who were the number 1 seed in the West. The Nuggets took out the Timberwolves in the 1st round and they looked really good in all of those games. The Suns have been getting a lot better in their games as Kevin Durant plays more in the lineup but this is still a Suns team that was only 17-24 in road games this season while the Nuggets were 34-7 in their home games. The Nuggets were not only great in home games, but they have the added advantage of playing in altitude so it is really tough to beat this team on their home court. The Nuggets will use this 1st game to make a statement against the Suns as they take a series lead and try to sweep their first 2 home games of the series. The best way to place a bet here is on the Nuggets to cover the spread in this game.

Suns Nuggets Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Saturday, April 29, 2023 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Nuggets 124 Suns 118.

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Phoenix Suns: 7-14 ATS in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5. 1-5 ATS off a home win against a division rival. 30-19 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5. 18-7 OVER after scoring 130 points or more.

Denver Nuggets: 26-17 ATS in home games. 23-15 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread. 15-4 OVER off a home win against a division rival. 41-21 OVER in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5.

Phoenix Suns:  None.

Denver Nuggets:  C. Gillespie (PG) Early May - Leg.

“It was spiritual. I don't scream too much in games as I get older, but when he hit that 3 at the top of the key, I felt that energy and I know everyone in the crowd felt it. We feed off his aggression.” - Kevin Durant after their win against the Clippers in their game on Tuesday which closed out the series, game 5 of that series.

“I looked up, there’s a lot of empty seats and coaches said, well, the weather’s really bad. But the way we played that first quarter was like a regular-season game. And then slowly but surely, I felt Jamal made a couple of shots. And Jamal plays with so much emotion. And I think he got our team going. ... Jamal just wouldn't quit, you know? And he made big shot after big shot.” - Michael Malone after his team’s win against the Timberwolves in their game on Tuesday which closed out the series, game 5 of that series.

PG Chris Paul

SG Devin Booker

SF Kevin Durant

PF Torrey Craig

C Deandre Ayton

PG Jamal Murray

SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PPG: K. Durant (29.1)

APG: C. Paul (8.9)

Reb/G: D. Ayton (10)

PPG: N. Jokic (24.5)

APG: N. Jokic (9.8)

Reb/G: N. Jokic (11.8)

Coaches:

Phoenix Suns: Monty Williams (4th season)

Denver Nuggets: Michael Malone (8th season)