Game Time: 9:30 PM ET, Thursday, May 12th, 2022 

Venue:   American Airlines Center, Dallas, Mavericks

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Suns -2; O/U 212.5

Fanduel:  Suns -2; O/U 211

BetMGM: Suns -1.5; O/U 212.5

Suns: 64-18, 1st place Western Conference… and the league

Mavs: 52-30. 4th place Western Conference.

An NBA Western Conference Playoff round 2 Game Game 6.  The Western Conference was sneakily loaded this season.  There were more winning teams in the Eastern Conference… but if right now I told you Phoenix, Golden State or even Memphis had already won the NBA Championship… It would not and should not be surprising.  I would never include the Dallas Mavericks in that statement… because Dallas is a one star team… though… maybe to have that opinion means we have discounted the largest collection of quality NBA role player anywhere?!  The Suns will move on from this series.  The only question left is Can they do it on Dalas’s floor… or will they have to take it back home?  The series is 3-2 in favor of Phoenix.  ATS is 3-2 in favor of Phoenix… among the two losses Phoenix had to Dallas is a 1-point loss during a bad shooting game for Phoenix… clearly Phoenix will win the series.  The great betting opportunity lies in this game and whatever the point spread tells us to do.

The Phoenix Suns have won 6 of their last 10 games.. They went 6-4 ATS.  When they win they win big.  The series has so far been each team winning on their own home court.  In the case of the fantastic 1-point finish just .02 away from being a win on a tip in by C Al Horford…. The home court officiating was nauseating.  Dallas got 100% of the close calls. And 75% of the no-calls.  In the last game, a win 110-80 for Phoenix… C Deandre Ayton had 20 points and 9 rebounds, SG Devin Booker had 28 points and 7 rebounds, Point GOD Chris Paul had a frail 7 points… CP3 won’t get that little again against the Mavs ever.  But Deandre and Devin could easily get what they got.  The hidden gem of this series has been iron man Mikal Bridges.  Mikal is a SF who plays fantastic defense and can give you 10-22 points on any given night… also he never misses a game.  Mikal was drafted by but traded by the Philadelphia 76ers!  So you can add Mikal to the list that includes Boston Celtic Jayson Tatum for big whiffs by Sixers management.  The deeper cut is that Mikal Bridges' mom works for the 76ers as an executive and was excited to have her son in the fold.  The trade was a family disappointment.  Sometimes people REALLY overthink things.

The Dallas Mavericks took a hard big loss in the last game.  They have won 6 of their last 10 games.  They went 7-3 ATS during that stretch.  The Mavs go as far as PG Luka Doncic takes them.  The message desperately needed to give to Luka is that he should include his teammates more in the offensive attack.  If one guy tries to do it all it never works… but if one great player (and Luka is!) occasionally gets lifted by their teammates… that team is nearly undefeated.  In the loss, PG Luka Doncic had 28 points, SG Jalen Brunson had 21 points and everyone else may well have been on a Greyhound bus out of town.  C Dwight Powell had 0 points in 7 minutes and clearly something is wrong with him.  Sf Reggie Bullock had 0 points on 0-5 shooting and 34 minutes of play!!  That is a problem.  PF/C Maxi Kleber had 4 points after spending most of Game 4 being the hero.  PF Davis Bertans doesn’t play much because he has two left feet on defense… Davis still got 10 points in 19 minutes… so what to do?  The Mavs DO NOT have a well rounded team and it is being fully exposed in front of our eyes.  Now at home they shoot better and play better… but WTF?  Even the spread is ridiculously close in a game that you know Phoenix will win big.

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Phoenix is 71-22 on the season, but 51-42 ATS during that span.  They logged 46 Overs, 46 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 34-12 on the road.

The Mavericks are 58-35 on the season, but 53-39-1 ATS.  They have notched 35 Overs, 57 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 33-13 in home games.

The Suns are 5th in scoring with 114.8 ppg, 10th in rebounds with 45.3 per game, and 3rd in AST/TO ratio with 2.1.  On defense they rank 9th with 107.3 ppg from opponents.

The Mavericks are 24th in scoring with 108.0 ppg, 24th in rebounds with 43 per game, and 9th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9.  On defense they rank 2nd while holding opponents to 104.7 ppg.

 

Our prediction for Thursday, May 12th is….. Suns 120 - Mavs 100 

Phoenix and the Over.  The Mavs have been getting progressively tired as the season has dragged on.  Dorian Finney Smith has had to stretch on defense for the Mavs as C Dwight Powell has played less and less minutes.  They are tapped out.  If Luka Plays hero ball… they will lose by an even bigger score.

Phoenix is 4-2 ATS against Dallas at Dallas the last 3 seasons.

Phoenix is 16-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

Dallas is 41-22 ATS when the total is 210-219.5 this season.

Dallas is 35-13 ATS after a road loss the last 3 seasons.

Suns: SF Jae Crowder (shoulder) Quest… He should sit.  Personally I would play Ayton with McGee side by side for the first 5-8 minutes… Dallas has no size and the offensive output would be unmatched by Dallas.

Mavericks: SG Reggie Bullock (knee) Prob ** SG Tim Hardaway Jr (foot) Out 

Suns: SF Mikal Bridges, PF Torrey Craig, C Deandre Ayton, SG Devin Booker, PG Chris Paul

Mavericks: SF Dorian Finney Smith, PF Reggie Bullock, C Dwight Powell, SG Jalen Brunson, PG Luka Doncic

Mavericks: Jason “Supervillian” Kidd

Suns: Monty “Superhero” Kidd