Game Time: 3:30 PM ET, Saturday, May 8th, 2022 

Venue:   American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas 

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Suns -1.5; O/U 215

Fanduel:  Suns -1.5; O/U 215

BetMGM: Suns -1.5; O/U 214.5

Suns:  64-18, 1st place Western Conference

Mavericks: 52-30, 4th place Western Conference

AN NBA Second Round Playoff series Game 4.  The first two games of this series was a predictable ride.  No ups, no downs, no loops… just the #1 team in the West beating the #4 team.  Of course the whole reason we bother even playing the games… is that sometimes the lower seed figures something out… or finds a next gear… or makes the perfect change in the starting unit… whatever it is?... Things do and can change and all of a sudden the #4 Seed pulls out a wire to wire win that was also a win ATS.  It was a home win… their first home game of the series.  The takeaway going into Game 4 is that the Suns had a momentary lapse of poor ball handling and stumbled in Game 3… The Mavs took advantage of a great shooting night and gave some life to the, so far, one-sided series.  Will Game four be more of the same?... Let’s check the numbers and figure out the great betting opportunity.

The Phoenix Suns have won 6 of their last ten games, including 1 regular season game.  They went 6-4 ATS during that stretch.  The Phoenix Suns were easily the runaway best team in basketball this season.  They have stars, depth, a quality bench, real teamwork, and of course the best regular season record of anybody.  Yet in round 1 it took them 6 games to put away the Western Conference 8th place New Orleans Pelicans. The Phoenix SAuns star and supermax contract player PG Chris Paul has alternately been called the “Point GOD '' and “unreliable in the playoffs”... It’s hard to see how they both could be true, but it is beginning to look that way. CP3 is easily the best true point guard of the last 15 seasons in the NBA… he has also led some loaded squads to shocking early playoff losses.  There is a litany of excuses for why those teams did not win a title (the most of which is freak injuries)... This season with the Suns is his best chance to dispel every whisper and get a ring… or to permanently scar his incredible career.  In Game 3 the Suns lost to Dallas 103-94… CP3 had only 12 points on 5 of 9 shooting AND may have caused the loss with 7 BIG turnovers… the first six of which came in the first half… allowing Dallas to get a comfortable lead. Yet the big story is probably that not a single Suns player reached 20 points… PF Jae Crowder led the way with 19 points, SG Devin Booker only had 18 and also chipped in 5 BIG turnovers, and C Deandre Ayton’s 16 points and 11 rebounds were not nearly as big as they sound as they came along with 0 assists and 0 blocks.  The Suns had a bad game across the board.  Cut and Final.  They had it all at once except for Jae Crowder… The math says that individually each could have a bad game against the Mavs again… but collectively they all will not have a bad game at the same time again.

The Dallas Mavericks have won 6 of their last ten games, including 1 regular season game.  They went 6-4 ATS during that stretch.  The Mavs also needed a full six games to get past the Utah Jazz in Round 1.  The Mavs took full advantage of the home crowd and soaked up the Cheers… the raucous Dallas faithful was so loud that they really did sway the refs on multiple possession calls… Seriously, the reffing was off and largely in favor of the Mavs. However even if the Suns had those 2-3 possessions back, the Mavs were still going to win this one!  PG Luka Doncic did his perfect 2009 LeBron James impression and pulled down 26 points, 13 rebounds and 9 assists.  He displayed a variety of moves from deep shooting, to floaters, to step back Js, to footwork in the post that shook Deandre Ayton out of his shoes.  Luka got plenty of help from SG Jalen Brunson who got 28 points with 5 rebounds and 4 assists.  That’s right the starting backcourt for the Mavericks combined for 54 points, 18 rebounds, and 13 assists.  The outplayed CP3 and Devin Booker all night.  The Mavs got a boost from bench big man extraordinaire PF/C Maxi Kleber who got 14 points… but most importantly 3 BIG BLOCKS.  The Mavs had great games from all sorts of guys and were able to overcome C Dwight Powell getting dinged up and only playing 10 minutes.  The Mavs looked good… hope you had a good look.. Because I can guarantee you that the turnover battle will not be Phoenix 17 - Dallas 8 again.  

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Phoenix is 68-20 on the season, but 49-40 ATS.  They logged 45 Overs, 43 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 34-10 in road games.

Dallas is 56-32 on the season, but 51-37-1 ATS.  They have notched 34 Overs, 54 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 31-13 in home games.

Phoenix is 5th in scoring with 114.8 ppg, 10th in rebounds with 45.3 per game, and 3rd in AST/TO with 2.1. On defense they rank 9th while holding opponents to 107.3 ppg.

Dallas is 24th in scoring with 108.8 ppg, 24th in rebounds with 43 per game, and 9th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9.  On defense they rank 2nd while holding opponents to 104.7 ppg.

 

Our prediction for Sunday, May 8th is….. Suns 118 - Mavericks 108

Phoenix will easily bounce back.  They will not have nearly as many turnovers and for Dallas Maxi Kleber, Jalen Brunson, and Regghie Bullock all scored well above their per game averages…. As both those numbers regress to the mean… Phoenix will blast Dallas again to take a 3-1 series lead. 

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Phoenix is 65-34 ATS revenging a loss the last 3 seasons.

Phoenix is 16-5 ATS when the line is set at +3 to -3 this season.

Dallas is 40-21 ATS when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season.

Dallas is 30 Overs and 12 Unders in the second round of the playoffs since 1996.

Suns: SF Torrey Craig (elbow) Quest ** SF Dario Saric (knee) Out

Mavs: SG Tim Hardaway (foot) Out

Phoenix: SF Mikal Bridges, PF Jae Crowder, C Deandre Ayton, SG Devin Booker, PG Chris Paul

Mavericks: SF Dorian Finney-Smith, SF Regie Bullock, C Dwight Powell, SG Jalen Brunson, PG Luka Doncic

Suns:  Monty “Superhero” Williams

Mavericks: Jason “Supervillian” Kidd