by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Dec 04, 2022
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Where to watch: NBATV, BSSW-DAL, BSAZ
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Mavs -3.5
FanDuel: Mavs -3
BetMGM: Mavs -3.5
Caesars: Mavs -3
Season record
Suns: 16-7
Mavs: 11-11
Well, if you’ve never seen a balanced NBA season to this point, you’re in for some craziness along the way. A lot of new faces in new places already making an impact, and our champion handicappers are already starting to take notice. The last 30 days have seen our champion handicappers cashing in a great deal. Look at Brian Bitler going 80-55-0 in the last 30 days, a run of $18,800 net profit. How about ASA, Inc.? He’s on a 55-41-2 run the last 30 days. You know where to go for your best analysis. As the season progresses, you know we're going to be in a position to deliver you the best analysis and picks that one can have in this market. Make sure you check out our Best Bets page at bigal.com to find all of our handicappers' selections, comprehensive previews, and more!
Suns - Mavs preview, prediction and analysis
Recent form
Suns: lost 122-121 vs. Rockets on Friday
Mavs: won 121-100 at Knicks on Saturday
Suns analysis
The Phoenix Suns were buzzing the last six games during that winning streak. Not all were flashy, but they got wins over the Lakers, Jazz and Kings – three wins that would seem insufficient this year but have suddenly not been. But then you lose a 1-point game to the Houston Rockets over the weekend and you’re wondering what in the world is actually happening here.
No matter how good you are, Devin Booker should not be dropping 41 points in a loss. Especially against the Houston Rockets, in a one-point loss, no less. Especially to the point where you’re giving up 122 points in which your defense should not be questioned so much to this point.
The problem for Phoenix, surprisingly, is the depth. Cam Payne has continued to play well in place of the injured Chris Paul, and he scored 20 point. Mikal Bridges had 22 points and eight rebounds, which is great. But Deandre Ayton had eight points on just 4 of 7 shooting in 30 minutes. If you’re not going to value Ayton for the player that he is, then just move him to a team that can use him. Let him go to Indiana like he wanted to. Trade him to Dallas. I really don’t care.
But Ayton needs to be utilized more, no matter what the case is. That’s the biggest reason why they lost that game, other than not playing defense. And if you can just find a way to get past that, maybe the Suns can be taken seriously this year.
Mavs analysis
What more can the Dallas Mavericks do to make me bash my head through a wall? Do they win and I look like a fool for picking against them, or do they lose and I look like an idiot for even picking them? I guess we’re going to keep this trend rolling after they dominated the New York Knicks in the second half, en route to a 121-100 win on Saturday.
The Mavericks outscored the Knicks 69-41 in the second half, including 41-15 in the third quarter. Keep in mind that Dallas trailed by seven at halftime. But Luka Doncic did what Luka Doncic does after going off for 30 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists in 29 minutes. Tim Hardaway Jr. got a revenge game in with 28 points, while Spencer Dinwiddie on one arm finished with 17 points.
This was a game without Christian Wood, so a good sign for Dallas to dominate the way that it did. Maxi Kleber, Reggie Bullock and Josh Green each had great games in their own right that made things a lot easier as the game went on.
While it was good to see the Mavs win, I want to see more Jaden Hardy. He’s coming off a strong stint in the G-League where he averaged close to 28 points per game in the time he was with Texas, but his best development is going to come with him playing more games and seeing who you have as a depth guard going forward. Sure, he was a minus-8, but the Mavs shouldn’t be a .500 team, nor scraping toward below .500.
You need to give Luka as much help as you can going forward and you can’t expect Hardaway to play like this every night. So says my fantasy team, but I guess we’ll find out.
Prediction
I’m sticking with the trend knowing that the Mavs might win so consider taking them on the money line or even laying the points. The Suns “will find a way to get back on track and win this game.” Suns by 6
Betting trends
Suns are 22-9 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 the last 2 seasons.
Suns are 119-89 ATS in all games the last 3 seasons.
Mavs are 4-13 ATS as a favorite this season.
Mavs are 21-9 ATS revenging a regular season loss the last two seasons.
Mavs are 58-38 ATS after a road game the last three seasons.
Projected starting lineup
Suns:
PG: Cam Payne
SG: Devin Booker
SF: Mikal Bridges
PF: Dario Saric
C: Deandre Ayton
Mavs:
PG: Luka Doncic
SG: Spencer Dinwiddie
SF: Tim Hardaway Jr.
PF: Dorian Finney-Smith
C: Dwight Powell
Key injuries
Suns: Chris Paul (heel, out)
Mavs: Kemba Walker (knee, out), Christian Wood (illness, questionable_
Statistical leaders
Suns:
Points: Devin Booker – 29.5
Rebounds: Deandre Ayton – 9.6
Assists: Chris Paul – 9.4
Mavs:
Points: Luka Doncic – 33.4
Rebounds: Luka Doncic – 8.6
Assists: Luka Doncic – 8.6
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
