Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: National League Wild Card Game 2 Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 10/8/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Friday, Oct 07, 2022
National League Wild Card, Game 2 -- Phillies lead best-of-3 series 1-0

Time: 8:37 p.m. ET
Venue: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Where to watch: ESPN2

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Phillies -115, Cardinals +105
FanDuel: Phillies -122, Cardinals +104
BetMGM: Phillies -120, Cardinals +100
Caesars: Phillies -120, Cardinals +100

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Phillies - Cardinals preview and analysis


The Philadelphia Phillies have decided they want to spoil Albert Pujols’ last hurrah for a championship. Strike that, not the Phillies, but the Cardinals’ own bullpen has decided to ruin Pujols’ chance at a title. Because that collapse from the Cardinals on Friday afternoon should not have happened under any circumstance, but alas, we might be at the tail end of things going south for the Cardinals.
 
The Phillies scored six runs in the ninth inning to fend off a 2-0 lead for the Cardinals, and a dominant pitching effort from Jose Quintana, to win 6-3 on Friday and take the first game of the best-of-3 that could end tomorrow if the Phillies get another shocking win. Because it’s not the fact that the Cardinals were supposed to be favored and are now one loss away from staying home and not advancing any further in the playoffs.
 
But perhaps we shouldn’t be too surprised from the Phillies and their ability to win big games considering how far back they fought to even get to this point. Zack Wheeler was very good by throwing 6.1 innings and allowing just two hits while striking out four. But it was Jose Alvarado who wave up the pinch-hit, two-run homer from rookie Juan Yepez to give the Cardinals the lead. It didn’t go downhill until the Cardinals screwed things up in the ninth.
 
In order: Alec Bohm hit by pitch, Jean Segura two-run single, Bryson Stott fielder’s choice to tie the game, Brandon Marsh RBI single, and Kyle Schwarber sacrifice fly. All of that equaled six runs somehow and the Cardinals found a way to blow it.
 
“I said it in the cage before the game,” Bryce Harper said. “We're not losing this game. That was the mentality. I swear. I was saying it all morning, 'We're not losing today.' It's just not going to happen. We're not going to lose this series, we're not going to lose this game. That's the mentality that we have in there. We want to go out there and win. Whatever that takes, we're going to play 27 outs. It doesn't matter how long you lead in a game, as long as you have the lead at the end.
 
“We were all talking about it. You have to speak it into existence, right?”
 
I really need to actually sit and give the Phillies some props for not folding and getting this win. Yeah, they’re not the favorites, but there’s a reason why they were able to finally put all that talent together late in the year and put something together. The Phillies, when operating at full capacity, can absolutely be one of the best teams in baseball. If it takes a long route to get there, it might just be that.
 
But the Cardinals should’ve won this game and everyone in the baseball world knows it. Three outs away, a historic home run from the rookie on the very first pitch he’d seen, and somehow the Cardinals found a way to mess all of that up. 
 
“I was just trying to see the ball and hit it,” said Yepez, who is the first player since Evan Longoria (2008) to homer on the first postseason pitch he’d ever seen. “It was a good pitch to hit and [I] was able to hit it out of the ballpark.”
Both teams had just five hits, which shows how solid of a pitching matchup this was. The Cardinals should have the edge going into Game 2 with Miles Mikolas taking the bump. The Phillies will send veteran right-hander Aaron Nola in response. Both are carrying an ERA in the range of 3.25 and 3.30, both with at least 11 wins. It should be a fun matchup.

 

Prediction

 
The Cardinals are too good to let the last 24 hours dictate their mood. They have the home crowd, they have the NL MVP on their lineup in Paul Goldschmidt, and Pujols is not ready to go into the night. Cardinals win 6-3

Betting trends


Phillies are 22-18 as a favorite this season.

Phillies are 20-13 against NL Central teams this season.

Cardinals are 94-69 the last three years when the line is between +125 and -125.

Cardinals are 3-8 in their last 11 October games.

Projected lineup


Phillies:
Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
Rhys Hoskins (R) 1B
J.T. Realmuto (R) C
Bryce Harper (L) DH
Nick Castellanos (R) RF
Alec Bohm (R) 3B
Jean Segura (R) 2B
Bryson Stott (L) SS
Matt Vierling (R) CF

Cardinals:
Lars Nootbaar (L) RF
Albert Pujols (R) DH
Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B
Nolan Arenado (R) 3B
Brendan Donovan (L) 2B
Dylan Carlson (S) CF
Corey Dickerson (L) LF
Yadier Molina (R) C
Tommy Edman (S) SS

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert MLB picks today. And if you enjoyed this Philadelphia Phillies - St. Louis Cardinals preview, be sure to drop by every day for our daily MLB projections and predictions.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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