Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/12/2025

Game Time: 7:35 pm ET, Saturday, July 12, 2025

Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -150, Padres +123; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -150, Padres +125; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -150, Padres +125; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Philadelphia Phillies:  54-39 (1st place, NL East)

San Diego Padres:  50-43 (3rd place, NL West)

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Philadelphia Phillies:  6-4 last 10

San Diego Padres:  5-5 last 10

The Phillies are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the San Francisco Giants 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 54-39 record overall and have a road record of 24-23. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 8th in the MLB with a .737 OPS. Ranger Suárez is their starting pitcher on Friday while Zack Wheeler is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 9-3 with a 2.17 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 0 BB with 12 SO on 1 hit through 9 IP against the Cincinnati Reds.

The Padres are entering this series off a win and split their 4-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 50-43 record overall and have a home record of 29-17. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .689 OPS. Rookie pitcher Ryan Bergert is their starting pitcher on Friday while Yu Darvish is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA this season. His team lost their only game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 0 homers, and 3 walks with 5 strikeouts on 3 hits through 3.2 innings pitched against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies have looked great in their games this season with their 54-39 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL East with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have also been a decent road team this year with their 24-23 road record. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 50-43 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL West. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 29-17 home record. The Padres have been a completely different team at home this season, but the Phillies have been the hotter team lately and they do have the better pitching matchup here along with the stronger offense. Wheeler is on the mound for the Phillies in this one and he has been one of their best starters this year. He is 9-3 with a 2.17 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs all season. He is coming off another great start in which he gave up 1 earned run and the team has won 2 games in a row now with him starting too. The Padres are going with Darvish in this one and he is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA. He only had the 1 start in which he gave up 2 earned runs in a little under 4 innings, but his team still lost that game and he is also still coming back from an injury that has kept him out all season. The Phillies can take advantage of that with their hot offense so look for the Phillies to take this game. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game. 

Phillies Padres Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 12, 2025 (7:35 pm ET start time) is Phillies 3 Padres 0.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 60-37 (+13.3 units) on the moneyline against NL West opponents. 249-186 (+8.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 176-128 (+21.1 units) on the moneyline vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 errors/game or less. 13-6 UNDER on the road vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season.

San Diego Padres: 230-195 (-4.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 119-91 (-9.5 units) on the moneyline in home games. 58-67 (-9.2 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). 31-14 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better.

Philadelphia Phillies:  M. Kepler (LF) Day To Day - Shin. A. Nola (SP) Sixty Day IL - Ankle.

San Diego Padres:  M. King (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. R. Bergert (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“I mean, I’m really good. I really am. I don’t want to put that out there and everybody goes, ‘What’s he talking about?’ But I know when I’m going well, I’m one of the best in baseball. Like I said, I’m healthy, I’m strong, I feel great. It’s just putting myself into plus counts. I haven’t done that. You guys have seen that. I haven’t done that. I feel stronger than ever. I feel like today being able to go oppo and do those things … anywhere else I might have three homers. Right? Those are the things you think about.” - Bryce Harper after their win against the Giants in their game on Wednesday.

“It starts with being pain-free, which Michael is, then continuing to maintain and increase his strength, continuing to be able to go out and throw and increase the intensity.” - Mike Shildt after his team’s win against the Diamondbacks in their game on Thursday.

Trea Turner (R) SS

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Max Kepler (L) LF

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

Brandon Marsh (L) CF

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Luis Arraez (L) 1B

Manny Machado (R) DH

Gavin Sheets (L) LF

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Jackson Merrill (L) CF

Jose Iglesias (R) 3B

Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B

Martín Maldonado (R) C

Batting Average:  Trea Turner (.294)

Hits:  Trea Turner (111)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (29)

RBI:  Kyle Schwarber (68)

Stolen Bases:  Trea Turner (24)

Wins:  Zack Wheeler (9)

Saves:  Jordan Romano (8)

ERA:  Seth Johnson (1.80)

Batting Average:  Bryce Johnson (.316)

Hits:  Manny Machado (104)

Home Runs:  Manny Machado (16)

RBI:  Manny Machado (54)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (19)

Wins:  Nick Pivetta (9)

Saves:  Robert Suarez (27)

ERA:  Bradgley Rodriguez (0.00)

Managers:

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (4th season)

San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (2nd season)