Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/11/2025

Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Friday, July 11, 2025

Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA

Where to Watch:  MLBN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -164, Padres +134; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -165, Padres +135; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -165, Padres +135; Over/Under:  8 runs

Philadelphia Phillies:  54-39 (1st place, NL East)

San Diego Padres:  49-43 (3rd place, NL West)

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Philadelphia Phillies:  6-4 last 10

San Diego Padres:  4-6 last 10

The Phillies are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the San Francisco Giants 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 54-39 record overall and have a road record of 24-23. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Padres on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 8th in the MLB with a .737 OPS. Jesús Luzardo was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Ranger Suárez is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-2 with a 1.99 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 6 SO on 5 hits through 5 IP against the Cincinnati Reds.

The Padres won their 3-game series against the Texas Rangers 2-1. They enter this game with a 49-43 record overall and have a home record of 28-17. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Friday with the series finale of their series against the Arizona Diamondbacks still to be played on Thursday. The Padres lost the series opener of that series on Monday, won the 2nd game on Tuesday, and lost the 3rd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .684 OPS. Randy Vásquez is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Ryan Bergert is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 1-0 with a 2.67 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 0 homers, and 3 walks with 4 strikeouts on 5 hits through 3 innings pitched against the Washington Nationals.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies have looked great in their games this season with their 54-39 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL East with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have also been a decent road team this year with their 24-23 road record. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 49-43 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL West. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 28-17 home record. As good as the Padres have looked at home this year, they haven't been great lately as they are 4-6 in their last 10 games. They have also been really up and down all season and this is a Phillies team that is 6-4 in their last 10 games and starting to get hot again. The Phillies have one of the best offenses in the MLB to lean on in this game, but they also have the better pitching matchup too. Suarez is on the mound for the Phillies in this one and he has looked great all season. He is 7-2 with a 1.99 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs all year. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start too and the team has won 2 games in a row with him starting too. The Padres don't have the offense to match this Phillies offense, especially with the way they have been hitting lately, and they aren't going to have their best option on the mound here either. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game. 

Phillies Padres Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 11, 2025 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Phillies 4 Padres 1.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 60-37 (+13.3 units) on the moneyline against NL West opponents. 249-186 (+8.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 176-128 (+21.1 units) on the moneyline vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 errors/game or less. 17-8 UNDER after a win by 8 runs or more.

San Diego Padres: 229-195 (-5.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 118-91 (-10.6 units) on the moneyline in home games. 58-67 (-9.2 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). 31-14 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better.

Philadelphia Phillies:  M. Kepler (LF) Day To Day - Shin. A. Nola (SP) Sixty Day IL - Ankle.

San Diego Padres:  M. King (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. R. Bergert (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“I mean, I’m really good. I really am. I don’t want to put that out there and everybody goes, ‘What’s he talking about?’ But I know when I’m going well, I’m one of the best in baseball. Like I said, I’m healthy, I’m strong, I feel great. It’s just putting myself into plus counts. I haven’t done that. You guys have seen that. I haven’t done that. I feel stronger than ever. I feel like today being able to go oppo and do those things … anywhere else I might have three homers. Right? Those are the things you think about.” - Bryce Harper after their win against the Giants in their game on Wednesday.

"As far as sustainable, listen, the parts are the parts, and you manage them to the best of your absolute ability.” - Mike Shildt after his team’s loss against the Diamondbacks in their game on Wednesday.

Trea Turner (R) SS

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Max Kepler (L) LF

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

Brandon Marsh (L) CF

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Luis Arraez (L) 1B

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Gavin Sheets (L) DH

Jackson Merrill (L) CF

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B

Bryce Johnson (S) LF

Martín Maldonado (R) C

Batting Average:  Trea Turner (.294)

Hits:  Trea Turner (111)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (29)

RBI:  Kyle Schwarber (68)

Stolen Bases:  Trea Turner (24)

Wins:  Zack Wheeler (9)

Saves:  Jordan Romano (8)

ERA:  Seth Johnson (1.80)

Batting Average:  Luis Arraez (.289)

Hits:  Manny Machado (101)

Home Runs:  Fernando Tatis (15)

RBI:  Manny Machado (53)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (19)

Wins:  Nick Pivetta (9)

Saves:  Robert Suarez (26)

ERA:  Bradgley Rodriguez (0.00)

Managers:

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (4th season)

San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (2nd season)