Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/26/2026

Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA 

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +102, Padres -122; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +100, Padres -120; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +100, Padres -120; Over/Under:  8 runs

Philadelphia Phillies:  26-27 (3rd place, NL East)

San Diego Padres:  31-21 (2nd place, NL West)

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Philadelphia Phillies:  6-4 last 10

San Diego Padres:  6-4 last 10

The Phillies are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Cleveland Guardians 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 26-27 record overall and have a road record of 12-11. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Tuesday with the series opener still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 24th in the MLB with a .683 OPS. Jesús Luzardo is their starting pitcher on Monday while Aaron Nola is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 2-4 with a 6.04 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 4 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 5 SO on 8 hits through 5 IP against the Cincinnati Reds.

The Padres are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the Athletics 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 31-21 record overall and have a home record of 16-13. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Tuesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 29th in the MLB with a .661 OPS. Griffin Canning is their starting pitcher on Monday while Randy Vásquez is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 5-2 with a 2.96 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 1 homer, and 3 walks with 0 strikeouts on 6 hits through 4.1 innings pitched against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The current betting odds have the Padres listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres have looked really good in their games this season with their 31-21 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They have looked good in their own ballpark too with their 16-13 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Phillies haven't looked great in their games this season with their 26-27 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL East. They have been a better road team though with their 12-11 road record this year. The Phillies are 6-4 in their last 10 games and they have looked a lot better lately after a terrible start to the season, but the Padres are also 6-4 in their last 10 games and have been pretty steady all year. Neither offense has been great this season with both teams being near the bottom of the league, but the Padres have a much better pitching staff and they are going to have a big edge in this game. The Padres are going with Vasquez in this one and he has looked great this year. He is 5-2 with a 2.96 ERA and the team has been having a lot of success with him. They have won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting and he did give up 3 earned runs in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this year and he has a great bullpen to back him up too. The Phillies are going with Nola in this one and he hasn't looked good this year. He is 2-4 with a 6.04 ERA and has been giving up quite a few runs. The team has been having success lately as they have won 3 of their last 4 games with him starting, but he did give up 4 earned runs in his last start and that has been a common theme for him. The Padres have been getting hot again lately and they should be able to edge out the Phillies at home with the much better starter and pitching staff in this one. The best way to place a bet here is on the Padres to win this game. 

Phillies Padres Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, May 26, 2026 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Padres 6 Phillies 2.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 95-94 (-15.5 units) on the moneyline in road games. 65-70 (-7.2 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 98-98 (-17.5 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 8-3 UNDER as an underdog of +100 to +150.

San Diego Padres: 40-27 (+12.8 units) on the moneyline against NL East opponents. 220-167 (+31 units) on the moneyline in all games. 116-79 (+9.7 units) on the moneyline in home games. 13-7 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5.

Philadelphia Phillies:  K. Backhus (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. M. Lazar (RP) Sixty Day IL - Oblique. Z. Pop (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Calf.

San Diego Padres:  L. Campusano (C) Ten Day IL - Toe. M. Waldron (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Arm. J. Cronenworth (2B) Seven Day IL - Concussion. G. Marquez (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. B. Hoeing (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. N. Pivetta (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“Neither team went out and knocked the ball all over the park. It was a really well-pitched series on both sides. They’re playoff-type games when you get pitching like that. Little things, scratching for a run here and there, that will make a difference. In general, we played well. We just didn’t score. The series could have gone either way. We could have won all three with the way we threw the ball or lost all three with the way we scored. It’s not like anybody out there is not trying to get hits. The old saying ‘Good pitching stops good hitting’ was pretty evident in this series.” - Don Mattingly after his team’s series loss against the Guardians over the weekend. 

"These guys are working their tails off. We can't judge them on one game. We've got to see this thing through a full season -- give these guys a full season to, you know, see where they end up." - Craig Stammen on Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado.

Trea Turner (R) SS

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

Adolis García (R) RF

Edmundo Sosa (R) LF

Brandon Marsh (L) CF

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 2B

Miguel Andujar (R) DH

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Jackson Merrill (L) CF

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Ty France (R) 1B

Ramón Laureano (R) LF

Rodolfo Durán (R) C

Batting Average:  Brandon Marsh (.320)

Hits:  Brandon Marsh (56)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (20)

RBI:  Kyle Schwarber (36)

Stolen Bases:  Bryson Stott (10)

Wins:  Cristopher Sánchez (5)

Saves:  Jhoan Duran (9)

ERA:  Chase Shugart (1.53)

Batting Average:  Luis Campusano (.288)

Hits:  Fernando Tatis (47)

Home Runs:  Gavin Sheets (9)

RBI:  Manny Machado (25)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (12)

Wins:  Randy Vásquez (5)

Saves:  Mason Miller (16)

ERA:  Yuki Matsui (0.00)

Managers:

Philadelphia Phillies: Don Mattingly (Interim)

San Diego Padres: Craig Stammen (1st season)