Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/18/2022

by James Q

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/18/2022

Game Time: 10:00 pm ET, Tuesday, October 18th, 2022
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, California
Where to Watch:  

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Moneyline:  Phillies +105, Padres -125; 6.5 O/U
BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Phillies +105, Padres -125; 6.5 O/U
PointsBet:  Moneyline: Phillies +105, Padres -120; 6.5 O/U

Season Record

Phillies: 87-75, 3rd place NL East
Padres: 89-73, 2nd place NL West

An absolut insanity has occurred in the National League.  It has been Upset City!  The Atlanta Braves, the New York Mets and the Los Angeles Dodgers have all been eliminated.  Those National League Teams represent the three best sets of stats over the course of the National League’s season.  Hell, the Dodgers were the #1 hitting team and the #1 pitching team.  All of that is gone.  We are left with an NLCS matchup of the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Diego Padres… and the Padres have home field advantage.  That is right!  All those 100+ win ball clubs are gone… and a team with 89 regular season wins will have home field advantage over a team with 87 regular season wins to decide who will reach the World Series for the National League.  Suddenly the Championship trophy is wide open and totally reachable for… well anyone!  

The Philadelphia Phillies knocked off the Atlanta Braves with an 8-3 win on Saturday night.  They had 13 big hits and cruised to the win.  3 runs in the second inning, 1 run in the third, 3 runs in the 6th inning, and an insurance run in the 8th inning.  It was high fives all around. The Phillies are very similar to the Padres in that they are a good hitting team with an average pitching staff that has found their bullpen is capable of getting out of innings without giving up many if any runs.  As long as they get those big hits… the confidence will stay high in that bullpen. PHillies pitcher Aaron Nola is brother to Padres Catcher Austinn Nola… We will see an awkward family with those terrible split team jerseys in this matchup.  Aaron Nola has won his last 3 starts. 2 in the postseason and 1 in the regular (against the Astros).

The San Diego Padres were built to try to knock off the Dragon of the North… the Los Angeles Dodgers… and that is just what they just did.  Their GM said as much.  Baseball history will note that the Dodgers could have avoided this fate had they paid the big contract to Manny Machado when they had him… and moved off Cody Bellinger when he messed up his shoulder during a high five after the World Series.  The result of those decisions from 2 seasons ago was a postseason matchups where the Dodgers Cody Bellinger barely played… and Padres’ Manny Machado was hitting the ball when not being walked on purpose.  The Padres lineup has found some postseason heroes in Jake Cronenworth, Ha-Seong Kim, and Trent Grisham… Those guys made the Padres lineup deadly from anywhere in the order.  Ha-Seong Kim has taken the place of Fernando Tatis Jr… The Padres biggest star who will miss a full year with a PED suspension.  Ha-Seong may be the better option since he hits for bases instead of swinging for the fences.  Moving runners around the bags is so important in the postseason!

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Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Review and Analysis

Recent Form  

PHI: 92-76, 581 ML, 84-77-7 O/U, 43-42 in road games.
SD 94-75, -357 ML, 79-84-6 O/U, 46-37 in home games.

Offensive Analysis

The Philadelphia Phillies finished the season 7th in scoring with 4.61 runs per game, 8th in batting average with .253, and 11th in OBP with .317.

The San Diego Padres finished the season 13th in runs scored with 4.35 per game, 16th in batting average with .241, and 8th in OBP with .318.

Defensive Analysis

The Phillies pitchers finished the season 18th in ERA, 14th in WHIP, and their fielders finished 3rd in errors with only 69 on the season.

The Padres pitchers finished the season 11th in ERA with 3.81, 9th in WHIP, and their fielders finished 8th in errors with 76 on the season.  

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Our prediction for Tuesday, October 18th is…   Padres 6 - Phillies 3

The Padres biggest problem to overcome is feeling as if they already won everything after beating the Los Angeles Dodgers.  However Machado and Soto are a better tandem than Schwarber and Harper.  I know that is not all either club has to offer… but they are the high priced team leaders.  The Padres bullpen looks unstoppable… If that keeps up?... The Padres should be near unbeatable in this series.  

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MLB Betting Trends

Philly is 5-1 ATS in playoff games this year.
The Padres are 63-48 (-15.3 UNITS) as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.
The Padres are 156-115 (-35 UNITS) as a favorite of -110 or higher the last 3 seasons.

Players to Watch 

Phillies: TBD
Padres: RHP Yu Darvish, 2-0 (in playoffs) 3.00 ERA, 11 strikeouts in 10 innings pitched.  Everyone likes Yu and he is having a great season and pretty good postseason.

Starting Lineups

Phillies: LF Kyle Schwarber, 1B Rhys Hoskins, C JT Realmuto, DH Bryce Harper, RF Nick Castellanos, 3B Alex Bohm, SS Bryson Stott, 2B Jean Segura, CF Brandon Marsh

Padres: LF Jurickson Profar, RF Juan Soto, 3B Manny Machado, DH Josh Bell, 2B Jake Cronenworth, 1B Will Myers, SS Ha-Seong Kim, CF Trent Grisham, C Austin Nola 


Phillies: Rob “how bout them ears” Thompson

Padres: Bob “um ma ma” Melvin

Weather Forecast 

Partly Cloudy, 82* During the day, it will dip a bit at night.  Humidity 57%, wind 10 mph.  San Diego Humidity has a tendency to hold homers in the park.  The Ocean air is thick.

James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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