Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/31/2023

by Rod Pearson

Tuesday, May 30, 2023
Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Wednesday, May 31, 2023
Venue:  Citi Field, Queens, NY
Where to Watch:  MLB Network


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -130, Mets +110; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -130, Mets +110; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -130, Mets +110; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Season Record

Philadelphia Phillies:  25-28 (4th place, NL East)
New York Mets:  27-27 (3rd place, NL East)

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Sean Murphy is on a HOT STREAK in the MLB: 51-38 (+$8.2K) start this season! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.


Recent Form
Philadelphia Phillies:  5-5 last 10
New York Mets:  6-4 last 10



Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Preview and Analysis


The Phillies are entering this game off of a win in their last game after splitting their 4-game series against the Atlanta Braves 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 25-28 record overall and have a road record of 11-18. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Mets on Wednesday with the series opener of this series still to be played on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 13th in the MLB with a .739 OPS. Ranger Suárez is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Aaron Nola is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 4-3 with a 4.59 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 ER, 3 HR, and 2 BB with 7 Ks on 8 hits through 6 IP against the Atlanta Braves.

The Mets are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak after losing their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 27-27 record overall and have a home record of 12-9. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Wednesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 16th in the MLB with a .728 OPS. Rookie pitcher Kodai Senga is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Carlos Carrasco is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 1 homer, and 2 BB with 4 strikeouts on 5 hits through 6.2 innings played against the Chicago Cubs.


Phillies vs Mets Prediction

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies haven't been great this season as they are under .500 right now but they just split their series against another division rival, the Braves, and that will give themselves some confidence in this series as they look to get over .500. The Mets haven't been any better this year as they sit right around the .500 mark too and they have had a really inconsistent offense all season. Their offense was playing well in their last series but they could cool off at any moment as they have been doing all year and they don't have the best pitching matchup here either. The Mets have Carrasco starting in this game and he has been terrible all season, giving up a ton of runs in his starts. He was a lot better in his last start but that good start where he only allowed 1 run has been the exception this season, not the rule with him. Nola, on the other hand, has been a reliable starter for the Phillies going all the way back to last season and he will be looking to bounce back after a bad start in his last appearance. Nola has the skill and the experience to bounce back here and he will make sure he brings his best pitches for this series between division rivals. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game.

Phillies Mets Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, May 31, 2023 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Phillies 6 Mets 3.
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MLB Betting Trends


Philadelphia Phillies: 88-75 (+8.9 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 13-7 (+4.9 units) on the moneyline when the total is 8 to 8.5. AARON NOLA is 21-6 OVER when the total is 8.5 to 10 and 20-12 OVER when the money line is +125 to -125.

New York Mets: 27-27 (-11.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 15-16 (-9.5 units) on the moneyline when the total is 8.5 to 10. 17-8 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5. CARLOS CARRASCO is 12-4 OVER when the money line is +125 to -125.

Key Injuries


Philadelphia Phillies:  N. Song (SP) Out indefinitely - Back. D. Hall (1B) Mid June - Thumb. J. Alvarado (RP) Early June - Elbow. C. Pache (LF) Mid June - Knee. R. Marchan (C) Out indefinitely - Hand. R. Hoskins (1B) out for season - Knee.

New York Mets:  J. McNeil (2B) Prob Tues - Groin. S. Coonrod (RP) Mid July - Back. T. Locastro (CF) Out indefinitely - Thumb. J. Quintana (SP) Mid July - Ribs. E. Uceta (RP) Early June - Ankle. J. Yacabonis (RP) Early June - Quadricep. E. Hernandez (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. O. Narvaez (C) Mid June - Calf. S. Ridings (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. B. Montes de Oca (SP) out for season - Elbow. E. Diaz (RP) out for season - Knee.


Notable Quotes


"Every guy is going to have to look in the mirror and understand what their job is, what their role is. We need to have urgency every day that we play. It doesn't matter if we're in first place, last place or in the middle.” - Bryce Harper on their poor start to the season.


“He was playing over in right-center on the one and he just couldn't get to it. He's our best option out there." - Buck Showalter on Starling Marte after his team’s loss against the Rockies in their game on Sunday.


Starting Lineups


Philadelphia Phillies
Bryson Stott (L) 2B
Trea Turner (R) SS
Bryce Harper (L) DH
Nick Castellanos (R) RF
Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
J.T. Realmuto (R) C
Kody Clemens (L) 1B
Brandon Marsh (L) CF
Edmundo Sosa (R) 3B

New York Mets
Brandon Nimmo (L) DH
Francisco Alvarez (R) C
Francisco Lindor (S) SS
Pete Alonso (R) 1B
Mark Vientos (R) 3B
Starling Marte (R) CF
Tommy Pham (R) LF
Mark Canha (R) RF
Eduardo Escobar (S) 2B

Statistical Leaders


Philadelphia Phillies
Batting Average:  Cristian Pache (.360)
Hits:  Nick Castellanos (62)
Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (13)
RBI:  Alec Bohm (37)
Stolen Bases:  Bryson Stott (8)
Wins:  Aaron Nola (4)
Saves:  Craig Kimbrel (7)
ERA:  Jose Alvarado (0.63)

New York Mets
Batting Average:  Michael Perez (.571)
Hits:  Brandon Nimmo (63)
Home Runs:  Pete Alonso (20)
RBI:  Pete Alonso (46)
Stolen Bases:  Starling Marte (14)
Wins:  Tylor Megill (5)
Saves:  David Robertson (8)
ERA:  Edwin Uceta (0.00)

Managers:
Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (2nd season)
New York Mets: Buck Showalter (2nd season)



Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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