by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Apr 17, 2022
Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
Venue: loanDepot park, Miami, FL
Where to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Bally Sports Florida
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Phillies -145, Marlins +125
BetMGM: Phillies -155, Marlins +125
Caesars: Phillies -149, Marlins +130
Season record
Phillies: 4-5
Marlins: 3-5
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Phillies - Marlins preview and analysis
Alright, so I guess the Philadelphia Phillies remembered how to hit a baseball after all following Friday’s debacle against the Miami Marlins. It took two innings for Philly to remind us all that they are, in fact, good at the baseball.
The Phillies posted eight runs through two innings and chased Trevor Rogers before he could even get through the second, to win 10-3 against the Marlins and end their four-game losing streak to preserve the chance at a split.
If there was any concern the bats would stay quiet, including from this writer, they were eradicated fairly quickly. Probably as quickly as it took Bryce Harper to sprint from third to steak home in the top of the first inning and give the Phillies a 2-0 lead.
It wouldn’t stop there.
Harper and Alec Bohm contributed to a six-run second inning. Bohm, who added two sacrifice flies for a 3-RBI game, drove in Harper and Nick Castellanos with a two-run single in the second. Harper had driven in two on a double the prior at-bat.
"There are days where you're not going to look very well offensively no matter who you have in the lineup," Phillies manager Joe Girardi said. "There are just those days. Eventually, these guys are going to get going and when they do you can have outbursts like today. We're too good not to get going."
Leave it J.T. Realmuto to be the only starter to not get a hit on this night. Kyle Schwarber got the day off after going 0-for-5, but Castellanos and Bohm had two hits, as did Didi Gregorius in four plate appearances.
Philadelphia also got a very solid five innings from Ranger Suarez despite walking three and giving up six hits. The bullpen came in behind him to allow only two hits the rest of the way and get a much-needed win for the Phillies.
"That was my goal today, to get to five innings and give the team a chance to win the game," Suárez said through a translator. "My plan was to attack hitters and try to be sharp."
Indeed sharp he was, which was done to a Miami group that was feeling confident for two days only to falter in a big way and remind everyone that the Marlins are not ready for big time just yet. Rogers’ outing did not help, but the Marlins got eight hits and left 15 on base.
Jorge Soler had a two-run home run but the damage was already done well into the game. Third baseman Brian Anderson was the only player to record more than one hit for Miami, going 3-for-4 with a double.
"Obviously, they've got a good hitting club and we give them a lot of credit," Marlins manager Don Mattingly said of the Phillies' lineup. "They did a nice job laying off (Rogers') changeup today or split or whatever they call it. You know, we'll get back to work and be better next time out."
The good thing is the expectations are low on that side, so good on you, Donny Baseball.
Prediction
Now that the Phillies have figured out how to hit, the next step is trying to rake them in consistently. And with the Phillies, I feel with Zack Wheeler on the mound it’s going to be the kind of performance that has Harper going yard twice and another 10-spot brought in. Again, no disrespect to the Marlins, but that’s just the law of the jungle right now in the NL East. Phillies win 10-5
Betting trends
Phillies are 21-26 the past three seasons as a road favorite of -110 or higher.
Phillies are 72-58 the past three seasons as a favorite of -110 or higher.
Marlins are 31-53 the past three seasons as an underdog between +125 and +175.
Projected lineup
Phillies:
Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
Rhys Hoskins (R) 1B
Bryce Harper (L) RF
Nick Castellanos (R) DH
Didi Gregorius (L) SS
Johan Camargo (S) 3B
Bryson Stott (L) 2B
Garrett Stubbs (L) C
Simon Muzziotti (L) CF
Zack Wheeler (RHP) 0-1, 1.93 ERA
Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
Rhys Hoskins (R) 1B
Bryce Harper (L) RF
Nick Castellanos (R) DH
Didi Gregorius (L) SS
Johan Camargo (S) 3B
Bryson Stott (L) 2B
Garrett Stubbs (L) C
Simon Muzziotti (L) CF
Zack Wheeler (RHP) 0-1, 1.93 ERA
Marlins:
Jorge Soler (R) LF
Garrett Cooper (R) DH
Jesus Sanchez (L) CF
Jesus Aguilar (R) 1B
Avisail Garcia (R) RF
Joey Wendle (L) 3B
Jacob Stallings (R) C
Miguel Rojas (R) SS
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 2B
Elieser Hernandez (RHP) 0-1, 7.71 ERA
Jorge Soler (R) LF
Garrett Cooper (R) DH
Jesus Sanchez (L) CF
Jesus Aguilar (R) 1B
Avisail Garcia (R) RF
Joey Wendle (L) 3B
Jacob Stallings (R) C
Miguel Rojas (R) SS
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 2B
Elieser Hernandez (RHP) 0-1, 7.71 ERA
Statistical leaders
Phillies:
Batting average: Nick Castellanos -- .324
Hits: Nick Castellanos -- 11
Home runs: Two tied -- 2
RBI: Bryce Harper -- 7
Wins: Four tied -- 1
Saves: Two tied -- 1
ERA: Kyle Gibson -- 3.09
Marlins:
Batting average: Jesus Sanchez -- .310
Hits: Jesus Sanchez -- 9
Home runs: Two tied -- 2
RBI: Jazz Chisholm -- 7
Wins: Three tied -- 1
Saves: Anthony Bender -- 2
ERA: Pablo Lopez -- 0.87
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
