Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Odds, Preview and Picks - 10/03/2021

by James Q

Saturday, Oct 02, 2021

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Odds, Preview and Picks - 10/03/2021

Game Time: pm ET, Sunday October 3rd,, 2021 
Venue: Loan Depot Park, Miami, Florida
Where to Watch: Bally Sports Florida, NBCSP

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Moneyline: ***; Over/Under: 8 runs
 BetMGM: Moneyline:  ***;Over/Under: 8 runs 
PointsBet: Moneyline: ***; Over/Under: 8 runs

Season Record

Phillies:  82-78 (2nd place, NL East)
Marlins:  65-95 (tied for last, NL East)

This is the three-game series that ends the regular season for both teams.  After this game (Sunday Oct 3rd) it is done.  The Phillies will be winners of second place and the Marlins will be whiners until they turn things around next season… or the season after… At least Miami fans have NFL football and NBA basketball games for the average bettor to build their bankroll on… er, I mean for entertainment purposes.  

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Phillies vs Marlins Preview and Analysis

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The Phillies are 6-4 over their last ten games.  Logging 3 Overs and 7 Unders.  The National League East was the perfect place for the Phillies thi season.  Even with all their struggles they were given time against sincerely awful teams to work it out.  2nd place may not mean anything as they will be a quick out in any wild card matchup or contest… Make no mistake, this isn’t a World Series team hiding from view.  The Atlanta Braves comfortably have the NL East crown already.

The Marlins are 1-9 over their last ten games.  They notched 5 Overs and 5 Unders.  They lost to the Washington Nationals and the New York Mets and the Tampa Bay Rays in that stretch with a lone win against the Mets.  They were out of contention for the NL Pennant.  Thursday and Friday were back to back losses,  Saturday will likely be a loss, but Sunday is their last chance.  Do they want to end the season with yet another game packed with scoreless innings or will the whole roster try like it is their rookie season and they want to stay in the bigs. Pride is on the line… Vacation plans have already been made.

Offensive Analysis 

The Phillies are 18th in team batting average .240, 13th in runs scored 729, 14th in home runs 196.  14th in slugging, 17th in doubles, 19th in hits.  The Phillies are exactly why the NL East can be written off as a weak division at the moment.  They are average in everything offensively and landed second place. If they took these numbers to the NL West they would finish behind the Padres.. In the Al East they would finish behind the Blue Jays… far behind.

The Marlins are 28th in team batting average .233, 29th in runs scored 615, 28th in home runs 156… They are at the bottom or near the bottom of every category… even BB (the most important one because it is FREE baserunners, free RBI chances). 
Defensive Analysis

The Phillies are 20th in team ERA 4.39, 9th in strikeouts 1466, 16th in WHIP 1.29.

The Marlins are 13th in team ERA 3.97, 17th in strikeouts 1354, 15th in WHIP 1.28.  The pitchers are pulling their weight.  The starters and bullpen relief appearances combine for a middle of the road pitching team.  They simply need run support and they would be the Phillies.

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction

Our prediction for Sunday October 3rd is... Phillies 6 - Marlins 2

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MLB Betting Trends

The Phillies are 41-33 against the NL East , +6.1 units on the moneyline.
The Marlins are 65-95 in all games, -18.9 Units on the money-line.
The Marlins are 37-72 as the underdog, -18.5 Units on the moneyline.

Key Injuries

Philly:  1B Rhys Hoskins (groin) Out for season.
Miami:  3B Brian Anderson (shoulder) out for season,


Players to Watch 

Philly:  Bryce Harper.  He’s the only one doing anything when Zach Wheeler doesn’t pitch so he’s the one to watch.
Miami:  The probable starting pitcher is Pablo Lopez 5-5, 3.03 ERA, 111 SO in 101 IP.  The 25 year old throws with power and accuracy.  He needs to expand his pick package and get a little less green.  He seems like a keeper though, without run support we know very little about Miami’s pitchers.


Starting Lineups  

M. Vierling, CF
A. Bohm, 3B
B. Harper, RF
A. McCutchen, LF
J. Realmuto, 1B
F. Galvis, SS
R. Torreyes, 2B
A. Knapp, C

M. Rojas, SS
J. Chisholm Jr., 2B
B. De La Cruz, CF
J. Sanchez, RF
L. Brinson, LF
L. Diaz, 1B
J. Alfaro, C
E. Alvarez, 3B
E. Hernandez, P

Statistical Leaders 

Batting AVG:  Bryce Harper .308
Home Runs:  Bryce Harper  35
RBI:  Bryce Harper 84
Hits:  Bryce Harper  149
Wins:  Zach Wheeler  14
ERA: Zach Wheeler  2.78
Strikeouts:  Zach Wheeler  247

The Phillies are clearly a 2 person team.  Sure, other players play for the Phillies but they don’t excel.  

Batting Average:  Miguel Rojas  .262
Home Runs:   Jesus Aguilar   22
RBI:       Jesus Aguilar     93
Hits:   Miguel Rojas   118
Wins:   Sandy Alcantara  9
ERA:  Sandy Alcantara  3.19
Saves:  Yimi Garcia  15


Phillies: Joe Girardi
Marlins:  Don Mattingly

Weather Forecast 

Partly Cloudy.  86* for the high.  63% humidity.


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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