Game Time:  6:40 pm ET, Thursday, April 14th, 2022 

Venue: Marlins Park, Miami, Florida

Where to Watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, MLB Extra Innings, Bally Sports Florida 

DraftKings: Moneyline: Phillies -105 ** Marlins -115; O/U 8.5

 BetMGM: Moneyline:  Phillies -105 ** Marlins -115

PointsBet: Moneyline:  Phillies +100 ** Marlins -120; O/U 7.5

Phillies: 3-2, 2nd place NL East // finished in 2nd place NL East last season with 82-80

Marlins: 1-4, last place NL East // finished in 4th place NL East last season with 67-95

An MLB NL East Matchup between teams that have started as they finished last season… neither is good news.  The NL East last season could not hold a candle to the mighty NL West or the stringer NL Central.  The NL East at this moment in time feels like a dumping division for teams that no one is interested in.  I’m not watching Mets games or Nationals games this season… the Marlins are in the same boat.  When they are playing there usually is a better matchup somewhere else.  The Phillies have teased the league and baseball fans with a chance at greatness for several seasons so far… They have Kyle Scwarber.. They have Bryce Harper… They have Zack Wheeler!  Yet they consistently don’t win. 

The Philadelphia Phillies have won 3 of their first 5 games.  They logged 3 Unders, 1 Overs, and 1 Push.  Righty Zach Wheeler got a loss in their last game which was against the New York Mets 2-0… The Total was set at 8.5, so it was a big UNDER. SS Jean Segura leads the team in home runs with 2 in 17 at bats. 3B Alec Bohm technically leads the team in batting average and OBP… but he has only been to the p[late 5 times.  The Phillies have 3 wins with a slow start, so that is a good thing.  As they heat up they may be able to hang on to that above .500 records for awhile.

The Miami Marlins have only won 1 game in their first 5.  They logged 4 Unders and 1 Over. Of the full starting rotation (changes are coming) only Right hander Pablo Lopez has a win.  The Offense is stagnant.  Few hits, few RBI’s… nothing happening. RF Jesus Sanchez leads the team in home runs with 2 while having been to the plate 20 times.  Jesus is batting .250, he was a bit of a spark or team leader last season which was his breakout season.  He falls into that category of “Would he be good on a good team?”

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The Phillies are 16th in runs scored with  4.17, 12th in batting average with .237, and 11th in OBP with .321.  

The Miami Marlins are 26th in runs scored with 2.80, 26th in batting average with .199,  and 29th in OBP with .264.  They desperately need to find some bats.  It will be a long cold summer if they maintain this pace!

The Phillies are exactly a middle of the road team in ERA with a 15th ranking.  The WHIP is good at 5th with 1.02.  The Bugaboo for this team is all the fielding errors.  They have 6 for a ranking of 29th… If they could clean up the gloves.. They would begin to shine a bit brighter that is for sure.

The Marlins are 13th in team ERA with 3.77, 7th in WHIP with 1.09.  They have kept the errors to a low 3 for an 11th ranking… but without run support of any kind these are all useless marks.

Our prediction for Thursday April 14th is...  Phillies 4 - Marlins 2

The Phillies will beat the Marlins.  The talent disparity is just too severe. The Under is what you are looking for, as the Total of 8.5 is set 1.1 higher than the average matchup between these teams over the last 3 seasons… Plus it will rain periodically.

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Miami is 17-12 (+8.6 units) against Philadelphia over the last 3 seasons.

Miami is 11-6 (+5.5 units) vs Philly at Miami the last 3 seasons.

The average Total in this matchup has come in at 7.4 the last 3 seasons… That favors the UNDER

Phillies: Right hander Kyle Gibson will get the start.  The 34 year old has a win and nabbed 10 strikeouts in his first 7 innings of the season.

Marlins: Right hander Sandy Alcantara will get the start.  His nickname is “Sandman”... which may be why every Marlins game I have looked in on has put me to sleep.  He has pitched 5 innings so far this season and gave up 3 hits and 2 earned runs.  He didn’t register a win or loss, but you better believe the team lost that one.

Phillies: DH Kyle Schwarber, C J.T. Realmuto, RF Bryce Harper, LF Nick Castellanos, 2B Jean Segura, 1B Alex Bohm, SS Didi Gregarious, 3B Bryson Stott, 2B Johan Carmago, CF Matt Vierling, PH Rhys Hoskins

Marlins: DH Jorge Soler, SS Miguel Rojas, 1B Garrett Cooper, LF Bryan De La Cruz, 3B Joey Wendle, CF Jesus Sanchez, RF Brian Anderson, C Jacob Satllings, LF Jon Berti, 2B Jazz Chisholm

Phillies: Joe Girardi

Marlins: Don Mattingly

82*.  Scattered Showers.  Wind at 13mph.  Miami has great weather when it is not raining.  The field should also be soaked from the night before.