Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview and Odds - 06/11/2024

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Tuesday, June 11, 2024

Venue:  Fenway Park, Boston, MA 

Where to Watch:  NBCS-PH

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -166, Red Sox +140; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -165, Red Sox +140; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -165, Red Sox +140; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Philadelphia Phillies:  45-20 (1st place, NL East)

Boston Red Sox:  33-33 (3rd place, AL East)

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Philadelphia Phillies:  7-3 last 10

Boston Red Sox:  5-5 last 10

The Phillies are entering this series off a loss and split their 2-game series against the New York Mets 1-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 45-20 record overall and have a road record of 18-10. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Red Sox on Tuesday and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .743 OPS. Taijuan Walker was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Zack Wheeler is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 7-3 with a 2.23 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 3 BB with 6 Ks on 5 hits through 7 IP against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Red Sox are entering this series off a win and split their 4-game series against the Chicago White Sox 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 33-33 record overall and have a home record of 14-18. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Tuesday and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .725 OPS. Zack Kelly was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Kutter Crawford is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 2-5 with a 3.51 ERA this season. His team lost their last 6 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 1 homer, and 2 BB with 5 strikeouts on 5 hits through 6 innings played against the Atlanta Braves.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies have looked great in their games this season with their 45-20 record overall which leads the NL East with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have looked good in their road games with their 18-10 road record too. Meanwhile, the Red Sox haven't looked great in their games this season with their 33-33 record overall which has them in 3rd place of the AL East and well out of the division race. They haven't even looked that good in their own ballpark, going 14-18 in their home games this season. They are going to have Crawford on the mound here and he has been one of their better starters this year, going 2-5 with a 3.51 ERA this season, but he still gave up 4 earned runs in his last start and the team has lost their last 6 games with him starting too. Wheeler is on the mound for the Phillies and he is 7-3 with a 2.23 ERA this season. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start and that has been a common theme for him this year as he has pretty much been their ace. The Phillies are traveling back from London for this game but they still have the better pitching matchup and a better offense that has been putting up a ton of runs lately. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game and on the runline.

Phillies Red Sox Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, June 11, 2024 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Phillies 8 Red Sox 3.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 45-20 (+16.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 40-16 (+14.7 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 27-8 (+15.2 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 16-6 UNDER as a favorite of -125 to -175. 9-1 UNDER after 5 or more consecutive unders. 14-4 UNDER after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better.

Boston Red Sox: 189-201 (-23.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 79-113 (-12.2 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 14-18 (-7.8 units) on the moneyline in home games. 6-1 UNDER against NL East opponents. 14-7 UNDER in an inter-league game. 9-3 UNDER after a win by 2 runs or less.

Philadelphia Phillies:  M. Rucker (RP) Out indefinitely - Finger. K. Clemens (2B) Out indefinitely - Back. B. Marsh (CF) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. D. Covey (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Turner (SS) Late June - Leg. Y. Marte (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. L. Ortiz (RP) Out indefinitely - Ankle.

Boston Red Sox:  R. Devers (3B) Prob Tues - Knee. L. Perales (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. T. O'Neill (RF) Ques Tue - Knee. L. Hendriks (RP) Early August - Elbow. M. Yoshida (LF) Out indefinitely - Hand. G. Whitlock (RP) Out indefinitely - Oblique. C. Murphy (RP) out for season - Elbow. B. Mata (SP) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. C. Martin (RP) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. V. Grissom (2B) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. R. Gonzalez (2B) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. L. Giolito (SP) out for season - Elbow. T. Casas (3B) Out indefinitely - Ribs. W. Abreu (CF) Out indefinitely - Ankle. T. Story (2B) out for season - Shoulder.

“His stuff was really good, I thought he was just missing. You have games like that. I still trust him a great deal.” - Rob Thomson after his team’s loss against the Mets in their game on Sunday.

“I told (manager Alex Cora) that I got the inning. I got the next inning. I don’t want to hear it.” - Kenley Jansen after their win against the White Sox in their game on Sunday.

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Edmundo Sosa (R) SS

Whit Merrifield (R) LF

Weston Wilson (R) 2B

Johan Rojas (R) CF

Jarren Duran (L) LF

Enmanuel Valdez (L) 2B

Rob Refsnyder (R) RF

Dominic Smith (L) 1B

Connor Wong (R) DH

David Hamilton (L) SS

Bobby Dalbec (R) 3B

Reese McGuire (L) C

Ceddanne Rafaela (R) CF

Batting Average:  David Dahl (.667)

Hits:  Alec Bohm (71)

Home Runs:  Bryce Harper (15)

RBI:  Alec Bohm (51)

Stolen Bases:  Bryson Stott (18)

Wins:  Ranger Suárez (10)

Saves:  José Alvarado (11)

ERA:  Matt Strahm (0.69)

Batting Average:  Rob Refsnyder (.336)

Hits:  Jarren Duran (71)

Home Runs:  Rafael Devers (13)

RBI:  Ceddanne Rafaela (37)

Stolen Bases:  Jarren Duran (15)

Wins:  Brayan Bello (6)

Saves:  Kenley Jansen (9)

ERA:  Pablo Reyes (0.00)

Managers:

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (3rd season)

Boston Red Sox: Álex Cora (4th season)