by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Sep 18, 2022
Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
Venue: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Where to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Bally Sports South
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Braves -255, Phillies +215
FanDuel: Braves -250, Phillies +205
BetMGM: Braves -238, Phillies +195
Caesars: Braves -267, Phillies +215
Season record
Phillies: 80-65
Braves: 90-55
We're coming down to the wire in the MLB season. Playoff races are heating up, pennant races are still to be decided, and MVP cases are still to be made. Are you in the right headspace to finish strong entering the postseason? Look no further than what Al McMordie has done as of late, going 53-37 in his last 90 in MLB plays! You know you want that type of winning in your life. Make sure you check out Al's and our other champion handicappers to see who they have down the stretch this season.
Phillies - Braves preview and analysis
There’s no room for error remaining with the Philadelphia Phillies. Everything and anything that could happen with the Phillies making or missing the playoffs is making these last few weeks all so enticing. The Phillies can only get into the wild card game and have just a half-game lead over the San Diego Padres with a few weeks to go.
And of course with this matchup against the defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves, and losing Saturday 4-3, the margin for error is razor thin. Like, so thin that you could gash your finger with the slightest of cuts. It could be the difference between facing the Braves in the best-of-3 wild-card round, or maybe the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Phillies could not stop Ronald Acuna, who accounted for all four runs of the Braves’ one-run victory as they continue to look to overcome the New York Mets in the final weeks for the NL East. The Braves are a game back of the Mets and getting that bye could make all the difference, to be quite honest.
"Obviously it's great that we got the win — that's the most important thing — but it's really sad that Ozzie hurt himself again," Acuña via a translator. "We need him. Like I said, it's really sad."
Yes, Ozzie Albies has a broken finger and will miss the remainder of the regular season. There’s the potential he could miss more, and just the fact the Braves were just starting to turn the corner when it came to injuries is really the most unfortunate thing.
"I hate it for him because my heart breaks for him," manager Brian Snitker said. "After everything he went through to get back here and then have that happen, God it's horrible for him. He was having so much fun, being the old Oz, playing ball. What he loves to do."
Acuna went 2 for 4 at the plate, as did catcher Travis d’Arnaud to pace the offense for the Braves. Jake Odorizzi went 4.1 innings and allowing just two hits. Amazingly, he didn’t get the win despite the stellar start because he didn’t get out of the fifth inning. Hard to do when you’re only allowing two hits.
The Phillies had eight hits themselves with Bryson Stott being the only one to have a multi-hit game. Matt Vierling drove in two runs from the No. 9 spot, but couldn’t do enough to give Aaron Nola some help. He went seven innings and struck out eight.
"I had guys on base in the third and fourth inning and Ronald hit a fastball away opposite-field," Nola said. "He put a good swing on it. Those two innings there, I hurt myself letting the leadoff guy get on. Other than that, I felt pretty good."
The Phillies are 40-52 the past three years as a road underdog this year. Bailey Falter is expected to take the mound, and Philadelphia is 10-2 when Bailey Falter starts. I still need a larger sample size for things to happen.
Prediction
The Braves are on a mission to get that first-round bye, and I think they they will eventually. Braves win and dominate. Atlanta wins 5-3
Betting trends
Phillies are 36-30 against NL East opponents this season.
Phillies are 17-19 as a road underdog this season.
Braves are 45-19 as a favorite at home this season.
Braves are 30-6 as a favorite at -200 or higher this season.
Projected lineup
Phillies:
Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
Alec Bohm (R) 1B
Bryce Harper (L) DH
J.T. Realmuto (R) C
Brandon Marsh (L) CF
Jean Segura (R) 2B
Bryson Stott (L) SS
Nick Maton (L) 3B
Matt Vierling (R) RF
Alec Bohm (R) 1B
Bryce Harper (L) DH
J.T. Realmuto (R) C
Brandon Marsh (L) CF
Jean Segura (R) 2B
Bryson Stott (L) SS
Nick Maton (L) 3B
Matt Vierling (R) RF
Braves:
Ronald Acuna Jr. (R) RF
Dansby Swanson (R) SS
Austin Riley (R) 3B
Matt Olson (L) 1B
Travis d'Arnaud (R) C
Michael Harris II (L) CF
William Contreras (R) DH
Ozzie Albies (S) 2B
Eddie Rosario (L) LF
Ronald Acuna Jr. (R) RF
Dansby Swanson (R) SS
Austin Riley (R) 3B
Matt Olson (L) 1B
Travis d'Arnaud (R) C
Michael Harris II (L) CF
William Contreras (R) DH
Ozzie Albies (S) 2B
Eddie Rosario (L) LF
Statistical leaders
Phillies:
Batting average: Alec Bohm -- .287
Home runs: Kyle Schwarber -- 39
RBI: Kyle Schwarber -- 81
Wins: Zack Wheeler -- 11
ERA: Aaron Nola -- 3.38
Braves:
Batting average: Dansby Swanson -- .280
Home runs: Austin Riley -- 36
RBI: Matt Olson -- 91
Wins: Kyle Wright -- 18
ERA: Max Fried -- 2.52
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert MLB picks today. And if you enjoyed this Philadelphia Phillies - Atlanta Braves preview, be sure to drop by every day for our daily MLB projections and predictions.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
