by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, May 26, 2022Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
Venue: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Where to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Bally Sports Southeast
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Braves -120, Phillies +100
BetMGM: Braves -120, Phillies +100
Caesars: Braves -120, Phillies +100
Season record
Phillies: 20-24
Braves: 21-23
This has been a weird season to this point as we get through the second month of baseball season. The last 30 days, we've seen Jim Feist rack up plenty of good wins going 48-42-4 over the last 30 days. It's been an unpredictable season so far, but our champion handicappers have been doing well all season. Get on board and join the ride. Catch Jim's plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Phillies - Braves preview and analysis
Phillies analysis
I'd like to take this time to thank the Philadelphia Phillies for returning to form, which is completely underwhelming and falling well short of expectations. Forget that first win of the series back on Monday. The last two games have been downright awful, with errors and lackluster offense galore. Why does this surprise anyone? It really doesn't with me, and I have no problem throwing this slander around to that entire organization with how bad they've been as of late.
And if you need any proof in how bad they are, this error in the fifth inning just propels it all. Dansby Swanson tries to steal second base, Phillies catcher JT Realmuto tries to throw to second base. The ball goes through two Phillies players, the ball trickled to center field and it rolls past the center fielder, and Swanson scored all the way from first with no slide.
If there was ever a microcosm moment that best describes what in the world is going on with the Phillies right now, that's it. That's the moment. And it involves a lot of laughter and everything else. Because what other moment would you have to waste a 4-for-5 day from Bryce Harper and being one of four guys to have a multi-hit game?
Of course, the reigning NL MVP doesn't have any RBI to his credit because no one else is willing to get on base to help the man out, and I'm just patiently waiting for him to snap and request a trade to the Texas Rangers or something.
But seriously, the Phillies having fallen to four games below .500 is not the ideal situation this team is in. They're getting no consistency from the pitching, as Ranger Suarez went only 4.1 innings and gave up five runs. They need a starter to help them down the stretch. But what on earth would they give up to make that happen? Time will tell.
And if you need any proof in how bad they are, this error in the fifth inning just propels it all. Dansby Swanson tries to steal second base, Phillies catcher JT Realmuto tries to throw to second base. The ball goes through two Phillies players, the ball trickled to center field and it rolls past the center fielder, and Swanson scored all the way from first with no slide.
If there was ever a microcosm moment that best describes what in the world is going on with the Phillies right now, that's it. That's the moment. And it involves a lot of laughter and everything else. Because what other moment would you have to waste a 4-for-5 day from Bryce Harper and being one of four guys to have a multi-hit game?
Of course, the reigning NL MVP doesn't have any RBI to his credit because no one else is willing to get on base to help the man out, and I'm just patiently waiting for him to snap and request a trade to the Texas Rangers or something.
But seriously, the Phillies having fallen to four games below .500 is not the ideal situation this team is in. They're getting no consistency from the pitching, as Ranger Suarez went only 4.1 innings and gave up five runs. They need a starter to help them down the stretch. But what on earth would they give up to make that happen? Time will tell.
Braves analysis
The world champs are looking good in this series against the Phillies, and it absolutely feels like this is the year of Dansby Swanson. The star shortstop also had a 4-for-5 game — including that funny run scored in the fifth — but also went yard on Wednesday in the win over the Phillies, and the Braves closed the gap on a .500 record by taking the last two in this series.
The Braves had 13 hits, with Swanson and Ozzie Albies leading the way with two RBI each, and Atlanta shows they are classes above the Phillies. I know that might come off as personal bias in how I feel about the Phillies, but think of this group getting a healthy Ronald Acuna Jr. at some point. If that happens, you look at the Braves lineup and think to yourself, 'why wouldn't this be one of the more talented lineups in the National League?'
Atlanta has that kind of pop to be good. Remember that Matt Olson guy? He may be hitting just .244 right now, but if he gets it going again like the rest of the league, no one wants to face that lineup.
They may not catch the New York Mets any time soon, but at least they're still good in their own right and things aren't falling off the rails ... like it is for Philly right now.
The Braves had 13 hits, with Swanson and Ozzie Albies leading the way with two RBI each, and Atlanta shows they are classes above the Phillies. I know that might come off as personal bias in how I feel about the Phillies, but think of this group getting a healthy Ronald Acuna Jr. at some point. If that happens, you look at the Braves lineup and think to yourself, 'why wouldn't this be one of the more talented lineups in the National League?'
Atlanta has that kind of pop to be good. Remember that Matt Olson guy? He may be hitting just .244 right now, but if he gets it going again like the rest of the league, no one wants to face that lineup.
They may not catch the New York Mets any time soon, but at least they're still good in their own right and things aren't falling off the rails ... like it is for Philly right now.
Prediction
The Braves are sending their most unhitable pitcher to the mound for Thursday, with ERA leader Kyle Wright taking the mound. If Philadelphia can't make things easy on themselves with a horrible performance like that, you really think the Phillies are the smart play here? Stick with the home team. Braves win 7-2
Betting trends
Phillies are 7-10 when the line is between +125 and -125 this season.
Phillies are 29-39 as a road underdog the past three seasons.
Braves are 7-8 against division opponents this season.
Projected lineup
Phillies:
Rhys Hoskins (R) 1B
Alec Bohm (R) 3B
Bryce Harper (L) DH
Nick Castellanos (R) RF
Jean Segura (R) 2B
Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
J.T. Realmuto (R) C
Johan Camargo (S) SS
Roman Quinn (S) CF
SP - Aaron Nola
Braves:
Ronald Acuna Jr. (R) RF
William Contreras (R) LF
Marcell Ozuna (R) DH
Travis d'Arnaud (R) C
Matt Olson (L) 1B
Ozzie Albies (S) 2B
Austin Riley (R) 3B
Adam Duvall (R) CF
Dansby Swanson (R) SS
SP - Kyle Wright
Statistical leaders
Phillies:
Batting average: Two tied -- .292
Hits: Bryce Harper -- 42
Home runs: Kyle Schwarber -- 10
RBI: Bryce Harper -- 27
Wins: Ranger Suarez -- 4
Saves: Corey Knebel -- 8
ERA: Zack Wheeler -- 3.38
Braves:
Batting average: Matt Olson -- .244
Hits: Ozzie Albies -- 39
Home runs: Two tied -- 8
RBI: Two tied -- 20
Wins: Two tied -- 4
Saves: Kenley Jansen -- 10
ERA: Kyle Wright -- 2.49
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
