Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/09/2023

Game Time: 6:07 pm ET, Monday, October 9, 2023

Venue:  Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

Where to Watch:  TBS

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +136, Braves -162; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +135, Braves -155; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +125, Braves -155; Over/Under:  8 runs

Philadelphia Phillies:  90-72 (2nd place, NL East)

Atlanta Braves:  104-58 (1st place, NL East)

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Philadelphia Phillies:  7-3 last 10

Atlanta Braves:  6-4 last 10

The Phillies are entering this series on a 3 game winning streak and won their best 2 out of 3-game series against the Miami Marlins 2-0 in the NL Wild Card Round. They finished the regular season with a 90-72 record overall and had a road record of 41-40. This is the 2nd game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Braves on Monday for the NL Division Series and they won game 1 of this series on Saturday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .765 OPS. Ranger Suárez was their starting pitcher on Saturday while Zack Wheeler is making his start in this game on Monday. He is 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB playoff start, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 8 Ks on 5 hits through 6.2 IP against the Miami Marlins.

The Braves are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 2-1 in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 104-58 record overall and had a home record of 52-29. This is the 2nd game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Phillies on Monday for the NL Division Series and they lost game 1 of this series on Saturday. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .845 OPS. Spencer Strider was their starting pitcher on Saturday while Max Fried is making his start in this game on Monday. He is 8-1 with a 2.55 ERA this season. His team won their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 1 homer, and 1 BB with 7 strikeouts on 3 hits through 6 innings played against the Washington Nationals.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies took the series opener here in Atlanta and now have a 1-0 series lead while also flipping the home advantage. The Phillies are looking to get back to the World Series as they were in it last year and they have experience kicking the Braves out of the playoffs from last year too. Their pitching was really good in game 1 and now they have Wheeler on the mound who has pretty much been their ace all season. He was great in his 1st playoff start against the Marlins and the Phillies have the momentum on their side from winning that series in a sweep too. Their offense has also been really good and they showed in game 1 that they can compete with this Braves offense that was the best in the MLB all year. There is too much value on the Phillies here for the way they have been playing lately. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game. 

Phillies Braves Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Monday, October 9, 2023 (6:07 pm ET start time) is Phillies 5 Braves 2.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 28-27 (-5.8 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 6-11 (-8.8 units) on the moneyline after allowing 4 runs or less in 4 straight games. 20-12 OVER off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. 11-6 OVER after allowing 2 runs or less 4 straight games. 

Atlanta Braves: 41-21 (+10.6 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -125 to -175. 37-20 (+7.4 units) on the moneyline after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. 35-22 OVER when the money line is -100 to -150. 30-17 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5.

Philadelphia Phillies:  E. Uelmen (RP) out for season - Elbow. D. Covey (RP) Out indefinitely - Back. R. Hoskins (1B) out for season - Knee.

Atlanta Braves:  K. Wright (SP) out for season - Shoulder. M. Fried (SP) Prob Mon - Finger. N. Anderson (SP) Mid Oct - Shoulder. J. Stephens (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. C. Morton (SP) Out indefinitely - Finger. D. Lee (SP) out for season - Shoulder. M. Soroka (SP) out for season - Forearm. Y. Chirinos (SP) out for season - Elbow. S. Hilliard (LF) Out indefinitely - Heel. K. Allard (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Matzek (RP) out for season - Elbow. H. Ynoa (SP) out for season - Elbow.

“This team, to a man, has this innate toughness to them. They're really resilient, and they just keep fighting. So it’s a great combination of talent and makeup that we have on this club.” - Rob Thomson after his team’s win against the Braves in game 1 of this series on Saturday.

“I think it was more their pitching than our hitting.” - Brian Snitker after his team’s loss against the Phillies in game 1 of this series on Saturday.

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Trea Turner (R) SS

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Brandon Marsh (L) LF

Johan Rojas (R) CF

Ronald Acuna Jr. (R) RF

Austin Riley (R) 3B

Matt Olson (L) 1B

Ozzie Albies (S) 2B

Marcell Ozuna (R) DH

Michael Harris II (L) CF

Orlando Arcia (R) SS

Sean Murphy (R) C

Kevin Pillar (R) LF

Batting Average:  Weston Wilson (.313)

Hits:  Nick Castellanos (170)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (47)

RBI:  Nick Castellanos (106)

Stolen Bases:  Bryson Stott (31)

Wins:  Taijuan Walker (15)

Saves:  Craig Kimbrel (23)

ERA:  Orion Kerkering (0.00)

Batting Average:  Charlie Culberson (1.000)

Hits:  Ronald Acuna (217)

Home Runs:  Matt Olson (54)

RBI:  Matt Olson (139)

Stolen Bases:  Ronald Acuna (73)

Wins:  Spencer Strider (20)

Saves:  Raisel Iglesias (33)

ERA:  Pierce Johnson (0.76)

Managers:

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (2nd season)

Atlanta Braves: Brian Snitker (8th season)