Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/07/2023

Game Time: 6:07 pm ET, Saturday, October 7, 2023

Venue:  Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

Where to Watch:  TBS

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +170, Braves -205; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +170, Braves -200; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +165, Braves -200; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Philadelphia Phillies:  90-72 (2nd place, NL East)

Atlanta Braves:  104-58 (1st place, NL East)

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Philadelphia Phillies:  7-3 last 10

Atlanta Braves:  7-3 last 10

The Phillies are entering this series on a 3 game winning streak and won their best 2 out of 3-game series against the Miami Marlins 2-0 in the NL Wild Card Round. They finished the regular season with a 90-72 record overall and had a road record of 41-40. This is the series opener of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Braves on Saturday for the NL Division Series. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .765 OPS. Aaron Nola was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Ranger Suárez is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 6 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 4 Ks on 9 hits through 4.2 IP against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Braves are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 2-1 in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 104-58 record overall and had a home record of 52-29. This is the 1st game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Phillies on Saturday for the NL Division Series. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .845 OPS. Dylan Dodd was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Spencer Strider is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA this season. His team won their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 0 homers, and 3 BB with 7 strikeouts on 6 hits through 5 innings played against the Washington Nationals.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a big underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies have been rolling in their games lately as they finished the season hot and swept their 2 games in the Wild Card Round. Their offense showed up in those 2 games and they have the momentum on their side since they also beat the Braves last season in this series. The Braves have been really good all season with one of the best records in the entire MLB and they also had the best offense too. The Braves are a very tough team to beat with their offense and pitching staff but the Phillies have given them plenty of trouble this year and this line is just disrespectful considering that the Phillies went to the World Series last year and kicked out the Braves. The Phillies definitely have the offense to go toe-to-toe with the Braves in this series and they know how important it is to take game 1 on the road and put the pressure on the Braves. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game and on the runline to keep it close.

Phillies Braves Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, October 7, 2023 (6:07 pm ET start time) is Phillies 6 Braves 5.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 0-6 (-6 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +150 or more. 27-27 (-7.7 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 21-14 OVER as an underdog of +150 or more. 5-2 OVER after allowing 2 runs or less 3 straight games. 

Atlanta Braves: 97-49 (+10.8 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 37-15 (+11.8 units) on the moneyline when the total is 7 to 8.5. 34-18 OVER when the total is 7 to 8.5. 52-30 OVER as a home favorite of -175 to -250. 

Philadelphia Phillies:  E. Uelmen (RP) out for season - Elbow. D. Covey (RP) Out indefinitely - Back. R. Hoskins (1B) out for season - Knee.

Atlanta Braves:  C. McHugh (RP) Ques Mon - Shoulder. M. Fried (SP) Prob Mon - Finger. N. Anderson (SP) Mid Oct - Shoulder. J. Stephens (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. C. Morton (SP) Out indefinitely - Finger. D. Lee (SP) out for season - Shoulder. D. Hernandez (SP) out for season - Forearm. M. Soroka (SP) out for season - Forearm. Y. Chirinos (SP) out for season - Elbow. S. Hilliard (LF) Out indefinitely - Heel. K. Allard (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Matzek (RP) out for season - Elbow. H. Ynoa (SP) out for season - Elbow.

“He went through a lot this year because he struggled at times and there were the home runs and the big innings and things like that, but he just kept grinding and he kept fighting, kept working. Finally, he found some stuff at the end of the year, and he’s been lights out.” - Rob Thomson after his team’s win against the Marlins in their game on Wednesday.

“Those are big numbers for the guys.” - Brian Snitker after his team’s loss against the Nationals in their last game of the regular season. 

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Trea Turner (R) SS

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

Cristian Pache (R) LF

Johan Rojas (R) CF

Ronald Acuna Jr. (R) RF

Ozzie Albies (S) 2B

Austin Riley (R) 3B

Matt Olson (L) 1B

Marcell Ozuna (R) DH

Michael Harris II (L) CF

Travis d'Arnaud (R) C

Eddie Rosario (L) LF

Orlando Arcia (R) SS

Batting Average:  Weston Wilson (.313)

Hits:  Nick Castellanos (170)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (47)

RBI:  Nick Castellanos (106)

Stolen Bases:  Bryson Stott (31)

Wins:  Taijuan Walker (15)

Saves:  Craig Kimbrel (23)

ERA:  Orion Kerkering (0.00)

Batting Average:  Charlie Culberson (1.000)

Hits:  Ronald Acuna (217)

Home Runs:  Matt Olson (54)

RBI:  Matt Olson (139)

Stolen Bases:  Ronald Acuna (73)

Wins:  Spencer Strider (20)

Saves:  Raisel Iglesias (33)

ERA:  Pierce Johnson (0.76)

Managers:

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (2nd season)

Atlanta Braves: Brian Snitker (8th season)