by Rod Pearson
Thursday, May 25, 2023
Game Time: 7:20 pm ET, Friday, May 26, 2023
Venue: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Where to Watch: MLB Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Phillies +115, Braves -135; Over/Under: 10 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Phillies +115, Braves -135; Over/Under: 10 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Phillies +115, Braves -135; Over/Under: 10 runs
Season Record
Philadelphia Phillies: 23-26 (4th place, NL East)
Atlanta Braves: 30-19 (1st place, NL East)
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Recent Form
Philadelphia Phillies: 3-7 last 10
Atlanta Braves: 5-5 last 10
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Preview and Analysis
The Phillies are entering this game off of a win in their last game but lost their 3-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 23-26 record overall and have a road record of 9-16. This is the 2nd game of a 4-game series with the Braves on Friday with the series opener of this series still to be played on Thursday. Their offense ranks 12th in the MLB with a .738 OPS. Aaron Nola is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Taijuan Walker is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 3-2 with a 5.79 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 3 BB with 3 Ks on 2 hits through 5.1 IP against the Chicago Cubs.
The Braves are entering this game off of a win in their last game but lost their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 30-19 record overall and have a home record of 13-12. This is the 2nd game of a 4-game series with the Braves on Friday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Thursday. Their offense ranks 3rd in the MLB with a .787 OPS. Rookie pitcher Dylan Dodd is their starting pitcher on Thursday while rookie pitcher Jared Shuster is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 1-2 with a 5.49 ERA this season. His team lost 3 of their 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 1 homer, and 1 BB with 7 strikeouts on 1 hit through 6 innings played against the Seattle Mariners.
Phillies vs Braves Prediction
The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies haven't been playing great this season while the Braves are off to a great start with the best record in the NL East right now, but the Braves haven't been at their best over the last week and are starting to struggle now with so many injuries to their pitching staff. The Phillies haven't been great but their pitching has been improving lately and they just won the last game of their series against the Diamondbacks so they can build on that win in this series. Walker has also been a lot better in his starts lately and will give the Phillies a good chance of winning here. The Braves are thin with their starters and their bullpen right now so the Phillies can take advantage of this pitching matchup since the Braves are going with yet another rookie starter here. Shuster hasn't been great in his starts either and the Phillies offense was starting to get hot again in their last series so they have lots of value to pull off an upset here with the Braves struggling lately. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game.
Phillies Braves Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Friday, May 26, 2023 (7:20 pm ET start time) is Phillies 5 Braves 3.
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MLB Betting Trends
Philadelphia Phillies: 23-26 (-9.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 2-11 (-9.3 units) on the moneyline on the road when the money line is +125 to -125. 7-3 OVER on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5. TAIJUAN WALKER is 6-2 OVER after giving up no earned runs last outing.
Atlanta Braves: 26-13 (+6.7 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 10-3 (+5.8 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 29-19 OVER in all games. 16-7 OVER as a home favorite of -110 or higher.
Key Injuries
Philadelphia Phillies: D. Hall (1B) Mid June - Thumb. J. Alvarado (RP) Early June - Elbow. C. Pache (LF) Mid June - Knee. N. Song (SP) Out indefinitely - Back. R. Marchan (C) Out indefinitely - Hand. R. Hoskins (1B) out for season - Knee.
Atlanta Braves: D. Lee (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. E. Adrianza (2B) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. K. Wright (SP) Mid July - Shoulder. M. Fried (SP) Early July - Forearm. T. Matzek (RP) out for season - Elbow. K. Allard (SP) Mid June - Oblique. H. Ynoa (SP) out for season - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“Maybe that's his signature moment that gets him going here. Sometimes it's tough for guys to come in, big contract, try to impress his teammates, fan base. He just keeps grinding, keeps working at it.” - Rob Thomson after his team’s win against the Diamondbacks in their game on Wednesday.
“It's probably the most experienced and talented lineup he's faced in his young career. The first three innings he faced no less than five guys. He didn't give in, either.” - Brian Snitker after his team’s win against the Dodgers in their game on Wednesday.
Starting Lineups
Philadelphia Phillies
Bryson Stott (L) 2B
Trea Turner (R) SS
Bryce Harper (L) DH
Nick Castellanos (R) RF
Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
Kody Clemens (L) 1B
Alec Bohm (R) 3B
Brandon Marsh (L) CF
Garrett Stubbs (L) C
Atlanta Braves
Ronald Acuna Jr. (R) RF
Matt Olson (L) 1B
Austin Riley (R) 3B
Travis d'Arnaud (R) C
Eddie Rosario (L) LF
Ozzie Albies (S) 2B
Marcell Ozuna (R) DH
Orlando Arcia (R) SS
Michael Harris II (L) CF
Statistical Leaders
Philadelphia Phillies
Batting Average: Cristian Pache (.360)
Hits: Bryson Stott (57)
Home Runs: Kyle Schwarber (12)
RBI: Alec Bohm (35)
Stolen Bases: J.T. Realmuto (7)
Wins: Aaron Nola (4)
Saves: Jose Alvarado (5)
ERA: Jose Alvarado (0.63)
Atlanta Braves
Batting Average: Ronald Acuna (.330)
Hits: Ronald Acuna (63)
Home Runs: Matt Olson (14)
RBI: Sean Murphy (36)
Stolen Bases: Ronald Acuna (20)
Wins: Charlie Morton (5)
Saves: A.J. Minter (7)
ERA: Danny Young (1.08)
Managers:
Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (2nd season)
Atlanta Braves: Brian Snitker (8th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
