Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Odds Preview Picks - 09/30/2021

by James Q

Wednesday, Sep 29, 2021

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Odds Preview Picks - 09/30/2021

Game Time: 7:20 pm ET, Tuesday, September 28th, 2021 
Venue: Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia
Where to Watch: NBCSP, Bally Sports South, FS1

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Moneyline: Philly +130 Atlanta -150; Over/Under: 8 runs
 BetMGM: Moneyline: Philly +130 Atlanta -150; Over/Under: 8.5 runs 
VegasInsider: Moneyline: Philly +130 Atlanta -150; Over/Under: 8.5 runs

Season Record

Phillies:  81-76  (2nd place, NL East) 
Braves:  84-72 (1st place, NL East) 

There is a battle brewing in Thursday night’s game.  The Phillies will get their last chance to jump a full game up in the standings.  It’s a game they absolutely need if they want to get lucky and catch Atlanta in first place.  They are 3 games back with six to play… so maybe they can’t… but stranger things have happened than a 2nd place team winning out and hoping the 1st place team gets some losses.  

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Phillies vs Braves Preview and Analysis

Philly is 6-4 over their last ten games.  Logging 2 Overs, 7 Unders, and 1 Push.  They went 1-1 against the New York Mets, 2-1 against the Baltimore Orioles, 3-1 against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and opened 0-1 in this series with the Braves.

The Braves are 8-2 over their last ten games.  Notching 4 Overs and 6 Unders.  They went 1-1 against the San Francisco Giants, 3-1 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, 3-0 against the San Diego Padres, and 1-0 to start this series against the Phillies.

Offensive Analysis 
The Phillies are 17th in team batting average .241, 11th in runs scored 719, and 14th in home runs 192.  They are headed toward a postseason wild card, do they have enough on offense?

The Braves are 12th in team batting average .243, 9th in runs scored 764, 3rd in home runs 232. The Braves are in control of the National League East.  If they handle this Phillies three-game series, of which they are the host, they will clinch 1st.


Defensive Analysis

The Phillies are 20th in team ERA 4.40, 9th in strikeouts 1435, 16th in WHIP 1.29.  Pitching isn’t the strength in Philadelphia… and neither is the offense.  They dig out wins from grinding and doing better recently than they did all season long.

The Braves are 10th in team ERA 3.92, 14th in strikeouts 1380, 12th in WHIP 1.25.  The Braves have been a rock all season long.  They haven’t been elite, but they have been enough for the NL Central crown.


Phillies vs Braves Prediction

Our prediction for Thursday, September 30th is… Phillies 5 - Braves 2


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MLB Betting Trends

The Phillies are 40-31 against NL East opponents +7.1 Units
The Phillies are 32-32 as underdogs  +9.0 Units
The Braves are 38-37 in home games -15.5 Units
The Braves are 25-30 following 1 run games -13.7 Units


Key Injuries

Phillies: Matt Moore SP Out 60 Day IL  *  Connor Brogdon RP Out 10 Day IL
Braves:  Ronald Acuna Jr RF Out  *  Mike Soroka SP Out



Players to Watch

The Phillies will start righty Kyle Gibson on the mound 10-8, 3.60 ERA, 147 SO 177.2 IP, WHIP 1.22.  “Gibby” as his teammates call him is a reliable, proven vet. He’s probably better served as a middle reliever but he is a starter for the Phillies.

The Braves will start right-handed pitcher Ian Anderson 8-5, 3.60 ERA, 122 SO in 122 IP, 1.24 Whip.  Ian debuted in August of 2020 and this season is making a case for fulfilling that #3 of the first round pick status Atlanta conveyed on him in 2016.  Future Ace.


Notable Quotes 

“You’ve got to keep grinding,” -Phillies Manager Joe Girardi

“We have five games to play and they’re all huge,” - Braves Manager Brian Snitker


Starting Lineups 

O. Herrera, CF
J. Segura, 2B
B. Harper, RF
J. Realmuto, C
B. Miller, 1B
A. McCutchen, LF
D. Gregorius, SS
F. Galvis, 3B

J. Soler, RF
F. Freeman, 1B
O. Albies, 2B
A. Riley, 3B
E. Rosario, LF
T. d'Arnaud, C
J. Pederson, RF
D. Swanson, SS

Statistical Leaders

Batting Average:  Bryce Harper .313
Hits:  Jean Segura 148
Wins: Zach Wheeler 14
Saves:  Hector Neris  12
Holds:  Jose Alvarado  16

Batting Average: Austin Riley .303
RBI:  Ozzie Albies  103
Hits:  Freddie Freeman 175
Wins:  Charlie Morton 13
ERA:  Max Fried  3.12
Saves:  Will Smith 35
Holds:  Luke Jackson  29


Weather Forecast 

Mostly Cloudy.  86* for the high.  Humidity 56%



James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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