Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 05/10/2022

by James Q

Monday, May 09, 2022

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 05/10/2022

Game Time: 7:30 PM ET, Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 
Venue:   FTX Arena, Miami, Florida
Where to Watch:  TNT

Opening NBA Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Heat -3; O/U 209.5
Fanduel:  Heat -3; O/U 210
BetMGM: Heat -3.5; O/U 209.5

NBA Standings

76ers: 51-31, 4th place Eastern Conference; 2-2 Series
Heat: 53-29, 1st place Eastern Conference; 2-2 Series

An NBA second round Playoff series Game 5.  This series is Fire! The Philadelphia 76ers lost two games in Miami to open the series. They were missing MVP candidate (but not winner) C Joel Embiid.  The Series returned to Philly where the Miami Heat lost 2 games to a 76ers team that all of a sudden had C Joel Embiid back.  So far so good… each team won on their home court!  Now the series returns to Miami where Miami is a 3 point favorite… only this time they have C Joel Embiid.  Holy Moly!  What wins?... The team with the suddenly returning Center or the team that is back at home and surely going to shoot better than the lousy 22% from 3-point range they logged in the last couple games?.  Also why is the point spread begging us to put our money on the 76ers after two consecutive blowout wins?.  The NBA playoffs are the most fun great betting opportunities in sports… Let’s check the numbers.  Then let’s lay some coins! 

The Philadelphia 76ers have won 6 of their last ten games, all ten Playoff games.  They went 6-4 ATS during that stretch.  They are 2-2 in the series having l;ost the first two and won the second two.  The TV “Talking Head” have been very critical of SG James Harden… they have mentioned that he has gotten older (as if we all aren’t doing that)... that maybe Harden has gotten too old to be the Harden he was 18 months ago.  Maybe?... But they are pointing their torchlights in the wrong direction.  If anyone else on any other team had 22 points and 12 assists we would be calling for their bust in the Hall of Fame.  Head Coach of the Brooklyn Nets got back to back MVP’s on less than that ppg… he was rewarded for the assists.  Prognosticators in the NBA coverage space refuse to let James Harden tale credit for the assists!  When James has 31 points and 9 assist they say “Yay! Finally some points!”... They are all morons… The James Harden stopry is not finished being told… It is certainly not the Charles Barkley or Patrick Ewing story where no rings happened and eventually they were spent.  I submit to you that no player getting 9-12 assists per game will ever be spent until that is no longer the case.  James Harden hit 6-10 3-pointers, C Joel Embiid added 24 points with 11 rebounds and some soul-crushing blocks, Pg Tyrese Maxey got 18 points… and all was right in Philly.  We are looking for it to stay right in Miami…. If James Harden gets 17 points 12 assists and 6 rebounds… try to remember that that is GREAT!  If he registers 30, 6, 3 try to remember that statistically that is not as good.  Also 3 cheers for C Joel Embiid for being the best snubbed MVP candidate in recent years.

The Miami Heat have won 65 of their last ten games, including 1 regular season game.  They went 5-5 ATS during that stretch.  The Miami Heat manhandled the Sixers in the first two games, on their home floor, without having to face C Joel Embiid.  People were rushing to give them a crown… then they had to face Philly in Philly with Joel Embiid.  They promptly lost two games and 2 ATS.  The Heat are a deep squad that isn’t using all their offensive firepower (SG Duncan Robinson, PF Markieff Morris) because they simply can't take the defensive liability. The Heat’s shortened rotation is better at defense but misses shots like I miss water when I fall out of a boat (I do not like water so I never get on boats, unless it is firmly on land). People will tell you that Miami had a rough shooting weekend and that is it.  And yes teams shoot better at home for the most part.  In the last loss SF Jimmy Butler had 40 points and C Bam Adebayo had 21 points… so the fault of the loss is firmly on ALL the SHOOTERS.  Will they hit more at home?... Let’s look at the numbers.

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Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

Philadelphia is 57-35 on the season, but 43-47-2 ATS.  They have logged 42 Overs, 47 Unders, and 3 Push.  They are 29-17 in road games.

Miami is 59-32 on the season, but 51-39-1 ATS.  They have notched 51-39-1 ATS.  They have notched 51-40 O/U.  They are 34-12 in home games.

Offensive Analysis 

Philly is 18th in scoring with 109.9 ppg, 29th in rebounds with 42.3 per game, and 8th in AST/To ratio with 1.9.  On defense they rank 8th while holding opponents to 107.3 ppg.

Miami is 17th in scoring with 110.0 ppg, 22nd in rebounds with 43.7 per game, and 19th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 4th while holding opponents to 105.6 ppg.
 

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat Game Prediction 


Our prediction for Tuesday, May 10th is….. Heat 111 - Philly 110

This is the safest bet. Philly to win against the spread while knowing that the Heat could hit a game winner at home.  Take just into account the last 2 games… because those were the first two games where the Sixers played at full strength… Give Miami 10 more points for returning home.. You still have a Sixers win ATS… So take it.

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NBA Betting Trends

Philly is 63-47 ATS versus Miami since 1996.
Philly is 33-23 ATS versus Miami at Miami since 1996.
Miami is 5-2 ATS versus Philly over the last 3 seasons.

Injury List

Philly: No injuries reported
Heat: No injuries reported.  The Heat continuously put PG Kyle Lowry on the list then ended up playing him.  Stop falling for it.  The Heat will play whoever is among the best 9 players… healthy or not.

Starting Lineups

76ers: SF Tobias Harris, PF Danny Green, C Joel Embiid, PG Tyrese Maxey, SG James Harden

Heat: PF P.J. Tucker, Sf Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo, PG Kyle Lowry, SG Max Strus

Coaches

76ers: Doc Rivers
Heat: Erik Spoelstra


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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