Game Time: 7:30 PM ET, Wednesday, May 4th, 2022 

Venue:   FTX Arena, Miami, Florida 

Where to Watch: TNT

DraftKings:  Heat -8.5; O/U 207.5

Fanduel:  Heat -8.5; O/U 207.5

BetMGM: Heat -8.5; O/U 206.5

76ers: 51-31, 4th place Eastern Conference

Heat: 53-29, 1st place Eastern Conference

An NBA Game 2 Eastern Conference Second Round matchup… that seems to have no intrigue at all.  The Philadelphia 76ers have a full complement of stars on the roster. Their biggest and best star however, C Joel Embiid, is out with a broken orbital bone in his eye… and he is recovering from a concussion. The remaining roster has no idea how to play without the legit MVP candidate and killer in the middle.  The Heat have their biggest star and leader in SF Jimmy Butler… but the roster is deep and reliant on each other.  They play a fine offense and a great defense.  Game 1 of the series was over early and finished with an easy Heat win.  The 76ers can not afford to keep dropping games… but they will as long as Embiid misses games.  They may even drop games when Embiid returns if Embiid is even the slightest hobbled. 

 

The Philadelphia 76ers are 0-1 in the series… and 0-1 ATS.  The Miami Heat ran circles around the 76ers in Game 1. The Final score Heat 106 - 76ers 92.  To not score at least 100 points in an NBA playoff game is almost statistically a guarantee of a loss. The 76ers only got 16 points from James Harden which is 16 points better than they would have gotten form PG Ben Simmons… but half as much as they expected form Harden when they traded for him.  The TV talking heads have weighed in on Harden and the consensus is that he is DONE.  SG James Harden is a shot fighter.  He can no longer blow past guys for easy lay-ups or fouls.  His body isn’t responding to the moment and James is so defensive that he refuses to address it when talking afterwards.  The Sixers' big game came from PF/SF Tobia Harris who netted 27 points but was an awful -25 in the +/- column.  PG Tyrese Maxey had 19 points… and that is pretty good… but without Embiid none of this appears to work.

The Miami Heat are 1-0 in the series and 1-0 ATS. The telling stats is that C Bam Adebayo had 24 points on 8 of 10 shooting from the field and 8 of 8 from the foul line.  Without Embiid in there, no one is able to tell that Bam is a bit undersized… Bam’s athleticism has no equal on the Sixers roster.  15 points from SF Jimmy Butler (who had a bad game) and 25 points from SG Tyler Herro (who had a good game)... and the Heat just kept running circles.  A strange part of the game is that great Heat shooter Duncan Robinson, who can play the 2 or the 3… ended up not playing again!  The Heat were able to feel the win so early that they skipped a big chunk of their bench to keep guys healthy for future games.  PF Markieff Morris started the season as a Starter, lost his job to injury, and ended up not playing at all.  The Heat will change nothing as long as Embiid is out and they shouldn’t. They will keep attacking the Sixers and especially James Harden who simply can not or will not play defense.

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Philly is 55-34 on the season, but 41-46-2 ATS. They have been a poor betting opportunity all season.  Winning but not covering.  They have logged 40 Overs, 46 Unders, and 3 Push.  They are 29-16 in road games.

The Heat are 58-30 on the season, but 50-37-1 ATS.  They have been a great betting opportunity all season.  If you had bet the Heat to win in every game at $1000 a pop…  you would be up (minus the vig) the price of a quality used car. Maybe you don’t bet that big?... If you had bet the Heat at home where they are 33-12… at just $100 a game… you would be up the price of a quality used motorcycle.  If you don’t want used cars or motorcycles… maybe you should just take the profit!

The Sixers are 18th in scoring with 109.9 ppg,. 29th in rebounds with 42.3 per game, and 8th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9.  On defense they rank 8th while holding opponents to 107.3 ppg.

The Heat are 17th in scoring with 110.0 ppg, 22nd in rebounds with 43.7 per game, and 19th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 4th while holding opponents to 105.6 ppg.

Our prediction for Wednesday, May 4th is….. Heat 118 - Sixers 101

It will get worse before it gets better. The Heat are still at home, the Sixers are still without C Joel Embiid… Forward Tobias Harris has not had back to back above 25 point games in two seasons.  So if the Sixers get more out of Harden they will get less out of Harris… If they get more out of Maxey they will get less out of Harris.  Don’t be scared by the big point spread… it would have lost ATS in Game 1… and that was not a great Heat game.  Bet the Heat!  And for Peaches sake… Bet the Over!  Parlay it and let me know how you do!  I will for $500.

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Philly is 61-46 ATS versus Miami since 1996.

Miami is 28-11 ATS after an UNDER this season.

Miami is 17-5 ATs after a combined score of 205 points or less.

Philly is a 2-11 ATs as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.

Sixers: C Joel Embiid (orbital bone) Out

Heat: OPG Kyle Lowry (hammy) Quest

Sixers: PF Tobais Harris, SF Danny Green, C Deandre Jordan, PG Tyrese Maxey, SG James Harden

Heat: PF P.J. Tucker, SF Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo, SG Max Strus, PG Gabe Vincent

76ers: Doc “ It was the right decision!” Rivers

Heat: Erik “Kiss My Rings!” Spoelstra