Game Time: 7:30 PM ET, Monday, May 2nd, 2022 

Venue:    FTX Arena, Miami, Florida

Where to Watch: TNT

DraftKings:  Heat -7.5; O/U 208.5

Fanduel:  Heat -7.5; O/U 208.5

BetMGM: Heat -7.5; O/U 208.5

76ers: 51-34, 4th place Eastern Conference

Heat: 53-29, 1st place Eastern Conference

NBA Playoffs!  Second Round Game 1.  A battle of #Seed vs #1 Seed.  In a year where the standings don’t always meet the enthusiasm or expectations.  The Philadelphia 76ers have two… sometimes three big dogs that slay on the offensive end.  The Miami Heat have a single leader in SF Jimmy Butler that leads a very deep team that excels at defense and hitting 3-pointers.  The 76ers are top heavy with talent… the Heat are deep with quality players on both ends…. Which is the better way to go in the modern NBA?  Who will you put your money on.

The Philadelphia 76ers struggled against the #5 Seed Toronto Raptors.  After going up 3-0 in the series the Raptors responded with grinding tough play and took the next two games!  The whispers about Sixers’ Head Coach Doc Rivers became shouts!  “This guy loses big leads in the Playoffs like we have never seen before!”  “Doc drops playoff leads like James Harden drops cash at “the club”.  Then came Game 6… and the Sixers blew the Raptors out to finish the series 132-97. They got huge games out of Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and James Harden.  People clown James Harden for not getting the scoring nights we are used to the former MVP having…. Yet when a guy pours in 22 points with 15 ASSISTS?!  Those assists count toward  wins! Every coach in the league would love any of their guards to come out of a game with 15 assists… no matter what they scored.  The Sixers' other starters PF Danny Green and SF Tobias Harris will need a few quality games in the Heat series or the matchups will overwhelm them.  It’s a good thing that Tobias Harris is better than anyone gives him credit for.

The Miami Heat rolled through the Atlanta Hawks in their first round NBA Playoff series. They were the number 1 Seed taking on the #8 seed and an easy ride is what is expected and what history says will happen.  The Heat lost just one game, Game 3, and they lost that game by a single point.  In that loss the Hawks managed to have 6 players in double figures with PG Trae Young having 24 points on 6 of 14 shooters with a boost of 10 of 12 from the foul line.  That coincided with a poor shooting night from the Miami Heat.  Duncan Ronbinson went 1 for 4 from 3, Gabe Vincent went 0-5 from 3, Jimmy Butler going 1 for 5 from 3, Tyler Herro going 4 for 11 from 3… It all piled up… and could not be rescued by PG Max Strus, going 5-10 from 3.  They did not and do not get too many nights like that.  Plus the Heat were on the road facing a loud and harsh Georgia crowd.  

The Philadelphia 76ers have won 7 of their last ten games including the 6 playoff games and the 4 last regular season games.  They went 5-5 ATS during that stretch.  The Sixers were able to finally put the Raptors down because the Raptors had no real viable Center to match up with Sixers Star Center Joel Embiid.  The Heat have Center Bam Adebayo… who, though undersized, is simply better than any of the Raptor PFs (not Siakam) that were in constant rotation versus Embiid.  

The Miami Heat have won 8 of their last ten games… 5 playoff, 5 regular season.  They went 8-2 ATS during that stretch. 4 Overs and 6 Unders.  The Heat are a defensive juggernaut.  They aren’t the league’s best but they are 4th best and while they do not block shots at a high level… They contest both FG shooting and 3-point shooting at an excellent level.  SF Jimmy Butler is the no contest leader of this crew.  Butler gets it done on both ends of the floor and comes up with hustle plays all the time… because he always hustles.

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The Sixers are 18th in scoring with 109.9 ppg, 29th in rebounds with 42.3 per game, and 8th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9.  On defense they rank 8th while holding opponents to 107.3 ppg.

The Heat are 17th in scoring with 110.0 ppg, 22nd in rebounds with 43.7, 19th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 4th while holding opponents to 105.6 ppg.

Our prediction for Monday, May 2nd is….. Heat 118 - Sixers 105

Heat Center Joel Embiid is slated to miss at least Game 1 of the series while recovering from a concussion and mild orbital fracture.  The Sixers missing Embiid is too much to overcome… especially since Miami will be at home.  The spread is 7.5 points… the Heat will be able to stop the Sixers without Embiid significantly more than that.  Bet the Heat… and skip the Over/Under… It’s set (208) too low to bet the Under… and the Sixers without Embiid might severely struggle to score… It could go either way too easily.

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Philly is 61-45 ATS versus Miami since 1996.

Philly is 13-4 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days

Miami is 19-8 ATS revenging a loss against an opponent this season.

Miami is 15 Over and 5 Under in a game where the total is set at 200 to 209.5 

Sixers: C Charles Bassey (shoulder) Out ** C Joel Embiid (upper body) Out

Heat: PG Kyle Lowry (hammy) Out ** 

Sixers: SF Tobias Harris, PF Dany Green, C Joel Embiid, PG Tyrese Maxey, SG James Harden

Heat:  PF PJ Tucker, SF Max Strus, C Bam Adebayo, PG Gabe Vincent, SG Victor Oladipo

76ers: Doc “I’ve got a title” Rivers

Heat: Erik “that’s cute” Spoelstra