by Matt Fargo
Monday, May 11, 2026A birdie on No. 15 gave Kristoffer Reitan the lead at the Truist Championship and then parred the final two holes for a two-shot victory and his first win on the PGA Tour. There were 10 players within three shots on the back nine on Sunday and Reitan went bogey-free to get it done. The tour heads north for the second major of the season and the 108th PGA Championship taking place at Aronimink Golf Club from Newtown Square, Pennsylvania. This will be the fourth time Aronimink has hosted a PGA Tour event over the last 17 years as it hosted the 2010 and 2011 AT&T National tournaments hosted by Tiger Woods and then the 2018 BMW Championship. It did host another PGA Championship back in 1962.
Aronimink is a par 70 that is being stretched to 7,394 yards this week and it is a classic Donald Ross design that underwent an extensive Gil Hanse restoration in 2017. This is considered a very short layout compared to most PGA Championship stops but what it lacks in distance, it makes up for in other ways. 75 bunkers were added during the renovation to bring the total up to a massive 174 so strategic shooting is important which negates some of that short distance. With this being a Donald Ross design, the green complexes are demanding with the putting surfaces crowned and extremely fast with false fronts and tightly mowed chipping areas.
Trying to defend his 2025 win is Scottie Scheffler who won his first PGA Championship with a runaway five-shot win over Harris English, Bryson DeChambeau and Davis Riley. He went into Sunday with a three-shot lead over Alex Noren but Noren shot a Sunday 76 to fall back and Scheffler needed just a 71 on Sunday to win comfortably. The last back-to-back winner was Brooks Koepka in 2018-2019 and he was the first since Tiger Woods in 2006-2007 who also accomplished the back-to-back in 1999-2000 with these being the only three times it has happened. It has been a decade of American dominance with Jason Day in 2015 being the last non-US player to win.
While it is not target golf, positioning off the tee is vital which makes Strokes Gained: Approach the top key statistic this week. There is no specific range as there will be plenty of iron shots between 125 and 200 plus yards. Strokes Gained: Off The Tee is next in line as there are plenty of risk/reward holes for the longer hitters and because of the amount of bunkers on the property, avoiding the fairway sand is paramount. As mentioned, the green complexes will bring out the need of imagination in some places while the chipping areas that will be adjacent to some thick rough so Strokes Gained: Around The Green rankings is big as those top players will be more apt to get their up and downs.
Like most majors, there are several key trends that lead to being successful at the PGA Championship. Every winner since 2016 has had at least two previous PGA Tour wins while nine of the 10 had at least three victories. Nine of the last 10 winners have had at least one top 20 finish at a PGA Championship with eight of those having it happen the previous year. Other majors do come into play based on the strength of the field and what is at stake and of the last 11 winners, nine have at least one top ten finish in a major. This data is very similar to The Masters with tournament form and major history being vital even though the PGA Championship rotates their venues.
The PGA Championship field is always one of the best and this year is no different with 98 of the top 100 in the OWGR on the course. 12 of the last 14 and 14 of the last 18 PGA Championship winners have been at +4,500 or less with Jimmy Walker in 2016 (+15,000) and Phil Mickelson in 2021 (+25,000) being the two most recent and Keegan Bradley in 2011 (+17,500) and Y.E. Yang in 2009 (+15,000) being the other two. Of the last 14 winners, nine have been at +2,000 or shorter. There are 12 players in the field at that +4,500 number and below with Scheffer being the favorite at +380 with the other bookend being Justin Rose at +4,500 with all of the usual suspects in-between.
The weather could play an important role in how hard this course plays and it is not tournament weather. Rain is expected on Wednesday into Wednesday night and it could be significant and depending how much falls, the course could get softened up for Thursday making it a green light day. No rain is expected the rest of the week with temperatures increasing every day, starting off 65 on Thursday and culminating at 84 on Sunday. Winds will be moderate but enough to dry up Aronimink as the week goes on so it should play as intended, firm and fast.
Top three key categories this week in order at the PGA Championship:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:
Brooks Koepka
Odds: Win 3,700 ~ Top Five 610 ~ Top Ten 305
Payout: Win 18,500.00 ~ Top Five 1,525.00 ~ Top Ten 762.50
Koepka is a three-time PGA Championship winner and also has three other top fives including a runner-up in 2021. He was one of the favorites to win in Myrtle Beach last week but had to settle for a T11. He has actually played very well since his return to the PGA Tour even though he has not been in contention as he has five T18 or better while missing only three cuts and one of those was the two-man event at the Zurich Classic. He leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and is No. 12 overall in the cumulative rankings in the three key statistics. Winning a fourth would tie Tiger Woods and he has the major championship acumen to do just that.
Collin Morikawa
Odds: Win 3,900 ~ Top Five 590 ~ Top Ten 285
Payout: Win 19,500.00 ~ Top Five 1,475.00 ~ Top Ten 712.50
We usually steer clear of Morikawa because of his short odds but there does not seem to be much confidence this week as he has a ton of value. He is a two-time major winner including the 2020 PGA Championship and people are likely concerned with his back. Well, he missed a month and came back with a T7 at The Masters and then a T4 the following week at the RBC Heritage so there is no concern. He is coming off a T62 at the Cadillac Championship as he lost 1.61 strokes on the greens which was surprising as his putting has improved quite a bit. He is ranked No. 2 in Strokes Gained: Approach and No. 26 in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee.
Si Woo Kim
Odds: Win 5,800 ~ Top Five 780 ~ Top Ten 360
Payout: Win 29,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,950.00 ~ Top Ten 900.00
Si Woo is having the best season of his career even though he does not have a win. He has yet to miss a cut in 14 starts while finishing in the top 20 nine times which includes seven top tens and five top fives, one of those being a runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open. He fits all of the trend categories with the majors part of coming in last year at the PGA Championship where he finished T8. Nine of the last 10 winners have at least three PGA Tour victories and Kim has that exactly. As far as the metrics are concerned, he is No. 5 in the cumulative rankings thanks to being No. 4 in Strokes Gained: Approach and No. 16 in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee.
Rickie Fowler
Odds: Win 7,200 ~ Top Five 950 ~ Top Ten 435
Payout: Win 36,000.00 ~ Top Five 2,375.00 ~ Top Ten 1,087.75
Fowler was in contention last week but a missed short birdie putt on 16 killed his momentum yet it was still another solid week. He has made 11 starts and has missed only two cuts which were back-to-back in Texas leading up to The Masters which he was trying to qualify for so he was pressing. In his other nine starts, he has seven top 20s including four top tens, three of which have come in his last three starts after the runner-up at the Truist Championship. He is No. 33 in the cumulative rankings as he has been in the plus in 10 of 11 starts in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Off The Tee. If he can find his way around the green, he is a live option this week.
Results through The Masters (9 Tournaments):
Win: -19,000.00
Top Five: -2,975.00
Top Ten: +1,975.00
Aronimink is a par 70 that is being stretched to 7,394 yards this week and it is a classic Donald Ross design that underwent an extensive Gil Hanse restoration in 2017. This is considered a very short layout compared to most PGA Championship stops but what it lacks in distance, it makes up for in other ways. 75 bunkers were added during the renovation to bring the total up to a massive 174 so strategic shooting is important which negates some of that short distance. With this being a Donald Ross design, the green complexes are demanding with the putting surfaces crowned and extremely fast with false fronts and tightly mowed chipping areas.
Trying to defend his 2025 win is Scottie Scheffler who won his first PGA Championship with a runaway five-shot win over Harris English, Bryson DeChambeau and Davis Riley. He went into Sunday with a three-shot lead over Alex Noren but Noren shot a Sunday 76 to fall back and Scheffler needed just a 71 on Sunday to win comfortably. The last back-to-back winner was Brooks Koepka in 2018-2019 and he was the first since Tiger Woods in 2006-2007 who also accomplished the back-to-back in 1999-2000 with these being the only three times it has happened. It has been a decade of American dominance with Jason Day in 2015 being the last non-US player to win.
While it is not target golf, positioning off the tee is vital which makes Strokes Gained: Approach the top key statistic this week. There is no specific range as there will be plenty of iron shots between 125 and 200 plus yards. Strokes Gained: Off The Tee is next in line as there are plenty of risk/reward holes for the longer hitters and because of the amount of bunkers on the property, avoiding the fairway sand is paramount. As mentioned, the green complexes will bring out the need of imagination in some places while the chipping areas that will be adjacent to some thick rough so Strokes Gained: Around The Green rankings is big as those top players will be more apt to get their up and downs.
Like most majors, there are several key trends that lead to being successful at the PGA Championship. Every winner since 2016 has had at least two previous PGA Tour wins while nine of the 10 had at least three victories. Nine of the last 10 winners have had at least one top 20 finish at a PGA Championship with eight of those having it happen the previous year. Other majors do come into play based on the strength of the field and what is at stake and of the last 11 winners, nine have at least one top ten finish in a major. This data is very similar to The Masters with tournament form and major history being vital even though the PGA Championship rotates their venues.
The PGA Championship field is always one of the best and this year is no different with 98 of the top 100 in the OWGR on the course. 12 of the last 14 and 14 of the last 18 PGA Championship winners have been at +4,500 or less with Jimmy Walker in 2016 (+15,000) and Phil Mickelson in 2021 (+25,000) being the two most recent and Keegan Bradley in 2011 (+17,500) and Y.E. Yang in 2009 (+15,000) being the other two. Of the last 14 winners, nine have been at +2,000 or shorter. There are 12 players in the field at that +4,500 number and below with Scheffer being the favorite at +380 with the other bookend being Justin Rose at +4,500 with all of the usual suspects in-between.
The weather could play an important role in how hard this course plays and it is not tournament weather. Rain is expected on Wednesday into Wednesday night and it could be significant and depending how much falls, the course could get softened up for Thursday making it a green light day. No rain is expected the rest of the week with temperatures increasing every day, starting off 65 on Thursday and culminating at 84 on Sunday. Winds will be moderate but enough to dry up Aronimink as the week goes on so it should play as intended, firm and fast.
Top three key categories this week in order at the PGA Championship:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:
Brooks Koepka
Odds: Win 3,700 ~ Top Five 610 ~ Top Ten 305
Payout: Win 18,500.00 ~ Top Five 1,525.00 ~ Top Ten 762.50
Koepka is a three-time PGA Championship winner and also has three other top fives including a runner-up in 2021. He was one of the favorites to win in Myrtle Beach last week but had to settle for a T11. He has actually played very well since his return to the PGA Tour even though he has not been in contention as he has five T18 or better while missing only three cuts and one of those was the two-man event at the Zurich Classic. He leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and is No. 12 overall in the cumulative rankings in the three key statistics. Winning a fourth would tie Tiger Woods and he has the major championship acumen to do just that.
Collin Morikawa
Odds: Win 3,900 ~ Top Five 590 ~ Top Ten 285
Payout: Win 19,500.00 ~ Top Five 1,475.00 ~ Top Ten 712.50
We usually steer clear of Morikawa because of his short odds but there does not seem to be much confidence this week as he has a ton of value. He is a two-time major winner including the 2020 PGA Championship and people are likely concerned with his back. Well, he missed a month and came back with a T7 at The Masters and then a T4 the following week at the RBC Heritage so there is no concern. He is coming off a T62 at the Cadillac Championship as he lost 1.61 strokes on the greens which was surprising as his putting has improved quite a bit. He is ranked No. 2 in Strokes Gained: Approach and No. 26 in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee.
Si Woo Kim
Odds: Win 5,800 ~ Top Five 780 ~ Top Ten 360
Payout: Win 29,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,950.00 ~ Top Ten 900.00
Si Woo is having the best season of his career even though he does not have a win. He has yet to miss a cut in 14 starts while finishing in the top 20 nine times which includes seven top tens and five top fives, one of those being a runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open. He fits all of the trend categories with the majors part of coming in last year at the PGA Championship where he finished T8. Nine of the last 10 winners have at least three PGA Tour victories and Kim has that exactly. As far as the metrics are concerned, he is No. 5 in the cumulative rankings thanks to being No. 4 in Strokes Gained: Approach and No. 16 in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee.
Rickie Fowler
Odds: Win 7,200 ~ Top Five 950 ~ Top Ten 435
Payout: Win 36,000.00 ~ Top Five 2,375.00 ~ Top Ten 1,087.75
Fowler was in contention last week but a missed short birdie putt on 16 killed his momentum yet it was still another solid week. He has made 11 starts and has missed only two cuts which were back-to-back in Texas leading up to The Masters which he was trying to qualify for so he was pressing. In his other nine starts, he has seven top 20s including four top tens, three of which have come in his last three starts after the runner-up at the Truist Championship. He is No. 33 in the cumulative rankings as he has been in the plus in 10 of 11 starts in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Off The Tee. If he can find his way around the green, he is a live option this week.
Results through The Masters (9 Tournaments):
Win: -19,000.00
Top Five: -2,975.00
Top Ten: +1,975.00
