Pepperdine Waves vs Saint Mary's Gaels Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 02/15/2024

Game Time: 11:00 pm ET, Thursday, February 15, 2024

Venue:  University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA 

Where to Watch:  CBS Sports

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Pepperdine +19.5, Saint Mary’s -19.5; Over/Under:  132.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Pepperdine +19.5, Saint Mary’s -19.5; Over/Under:  132.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Pepperdine +19.5, Saint Mary’s -19.5; Over/Under:  132.5 points

Pepperdine Waves:  10-16 (3-8) (7th place, WCC)

Saint Mary's Gaels:  20-6 (11-0) (1st place, WCC)

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Pepperdine Waves:  1-4  last 5

Saint Mary's Gaels:  5-0  last 5

Pepperdine is entering this game with a 10-16 record overall, a 3-8 record in conference games, and they are 2-6 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Loyola Marymount Lions in their last game. Michael Ajayi led the team in points per game in that game with 17 while Houston Mallette was next on the team with 13. Malik Moore led the team in assists with 4 in that game while Michael Ajayi led the team in rebounds with 13. They were 44.4% from the field, 27.8% from 3-point range, and 78.6% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 72.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 74 PPG against them. Pepperdine has an ATS record of 10-14 this season and their O/U record is 11-12-1.

Saint Mary’s is entering this game with a 20-6 record overall, an 11-0 conference record, and they are 11-3 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Portland Pilots in their last game. Aidan Mahaney led the team in points in that game with 19 while Augustas Marčiulionis was next on the team with 14. Augustas Marčiulionis led the team in assists with 8 in that game while Alex Ducas led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 40.6% from the field, 40% from 3-point range, and 76.9% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 73.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 57.7 PPG against them. Saint Mary’s has an ATS record of 13-12 this season and their O/U record is 12-13.

The current betting odds have Saint Mary's listed as a 19.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Saint Mary's has looked really good in their games this season with their 20-6 record overall which has them ranked inside the top 25 teams in the country. They have looked great in the WCC this year as they have retaken the conference from Gonzaga and are leading the way right now with their 11-0 conference record. They have also looked great in their home games with their 11-3 home record. Meanwhile, Pepperdine has looked terrible in their games this season with their 10-16 record overall and their 3-8 conference record which has them right near the bottom of the WCC. They have also looked terrible in their road games with their 2-6 road record and they have been in a huge slump lately with only 1 win in their last 5 games. Saint Mary's struggled more in their non-conference games this season, but they have been excelling since entering conference play and have been rolling over teams in their games lately with a lot of blowout wins too. Saint Mary's is looking to win this conference again for the first time in years and they aren't going to waste this opportunity on their home court to beat up on one of the worst teams in the conference. The best way to place a bet here is on Saint Mary's to cover the spread in this game. 

Pepperdine Saint Mary's Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Thursday, February 15, 2024 (11:00 pm ET start time) is Saint Mary’s 92 Pepperdine 67.

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Pepperdine Waves: 3-10 ATS as an underdog. 10-23 ATS in road games. 16-29 ATS against conference opponents. 8-15 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins. 20-10 OVER as a road underdog or pick. 28-16 OVER against conference opponents. 6-1 OVER after a game committing 8 or less turnovers.

Saint Mary's Gaels: 26-16 ATS as a home favorite or pick. 7-1 ATS after 2 straight games committing 8 or less turnovers. 11-5 ATS off a road win against a conference rival. 5-1 OVER after allowing 65 points or less in 3 straight games. 6-3 OVER after a blowout win by 20 points or more. 16-9 OVER after a game committing 8 or less turnovers.

Pepperdine Waves:  B. Coulibaly (F) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed.

Saint Mary's Gaels:  None.

“Pepperdine was my first head coaching job, and I remember us not doing well our first year. When we took over there had been a couple of losing seasons before that, and in our first year we also had a losing season. Then in our second year, I think we were the second-most improved team in the country. To see the kids on that team experience a little more success was something that was really exciting.” - Lorenzo Romar on being the coach of Pepperdine basketball.

“They’ve seen what it looks like to play in the NCAA tournament two years in a row, win a game. All that stuff, I can’t explain how valuable that is for a coach. These guys have done what it takes and seen what it looks like when you get there.” - Randy Bennett on his team and the NCAA Tournament.

M. Ajayi 

E. Anderson 

S. Gassama 

H. Mallette 

M. Moore

A. Ducas 

J. Jefferson 

A. Mahaney 

A. Marciulionis 

M. Saxen

PPG: M. Ajayi (17.2)

APG: E. Anderson (3.3)

Reb/G: M. Ajayi (9.5)

PPG: A. Mahaney (14)

APG: A. Marciulionis (4.7)

Reb/G: M. Saxen (7.5)

Coaches:

Pepperdine Waves: Lorenzo Romar (6th season)

Saint Mary's Gaels: Randy Bennett (23rd season)