by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Feb 17, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: John J. Lee Amphitheater, New Haven, CT
Where to watch: ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
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BetMGM: Check back later
Caesars: Check back later
Season record
Penn: 11-12 (8-2 Ivy League)
Yale: 14-9 (8-1 Ivy League)
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Penn - Yale preview and analysis
Recent form
Penn: won five straight
Yale: won six straight
Penn analysis
Who says Ivy League basketball is boring? We have been blessed to have crazy talent within these two teams alone. And we should all be fans of a team called the Quakers.
Because shoutout to Quaker Oats. And shoutout to Jordan Dingle for looking like the Player of the Year of the Ivy League at this rate. The Quakers, one of the top two teams in the Ivy, come in having won five straight games and have won 8 of 10 conference games to this rate.
Penn is coming off an 82-74 win at home against Harvard to complete the season sweep against the Crimson. That guy, Dingle? Yeah, he was on fire yet again. Dingle finished with 33 points on 12 of 17 shooting, and Clark Slajchert had 15 points off the bench in 26 minutes.
It's a one-man show with Penn, and you can understand why. Dingle, who went 8 of 10 from 3-point range, is a walking flamethrower that's ready to warm up your oatmeal. The sophomore guard had 31 points and six rebounds in the first matchup against Yale back on Jan. 22, showing that he's going to carry this team to whatever the rest of the way tells us.
In order for Penn to make the tournament, it's going to have to require such an incredible run of epic proportions the likes of which we haven't seen, but it would be the complete norm in the Ivy League to see a guy like Dingle erupt with the way he's carrying the scoring load.
Yale analysis
The top team in the Ivy League has been on fire as of late and it's hard to think somebody can knock the Yale Bulldogs off the perch right now, especially when they're throwing up 84 points like they did against the Columbia Lions the other day.
Yale shot 63 percent from the floor led by Matt Knowling with 19 points on 9 of 12 shooting, and Azar Swain continuing his strong season with 17 points on 7 of 13 shooting. All but three players scored in that 25-point win for the Bulldogs.
If you look at the landscape of the Ivy League, it's a three-team race between Yale, Pennsylvania and Princeton. They're all separated by one game in the standings and it looks like a race that's going to come down to the wire. And yet somehow, Yale tends to be the one that has this energy around them that they'll eventually come out on top with this.
The Bulldogs have a balanced lineup with the ability to score 1-5. That's why they're considered the favorites to win this conference, no matter how many strong teams reside.
Prediction
As far as the spread goes, what a time for this one. Yale has been great, but are just 1-5 against the spread in its last six home games. It goes beyond that. Yale has gone 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 following an ATS win, which doesn't bode well. But what I think gives Yale the edge in the win and cover is the fact tht the spread is just 4.5. If it were anything larger, I'd tend to lean more toward accepting that Yale is 2-8 in its last 10 against the spread as a home favorite. I'd also ignore the fact that Pennsylvania has covered its last five and is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. I would overlook that because I like the first-place team right now in this stretch. However, that's not the case. Penn not only has the best player in this matchup, but perhaps the best scorer when in need of a bucket. Give me the road team and the top scorer in the Ivy League. Penn by 8
Betting trends
Penn is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 against conference opponents.
Penn is 15-4 ATS following three straight conerence games.
Projected starting lineup
Penn:
PG: Jordan Dingle
SG: Jelani Williams
SF: Jonah Charles
PF: Max Martz
C: Michael Moshkovitz
Yale:
PG: Azar Swain
SG: Bez Mbeng
SF: Matt Knowling
PF: Jalen Gabbidon
C: Isaiah Kelly
Statistical leaders
Penn:
Points: Jordan Dingle -- 20.1
Rebounds: Max Martz -- 5.0
Assists: Michael Moshkovitz -- 2.7
Yale:
Points: Azar Swain -- 19.1
Rebounds: Azar Swain -- 4.3
Assists: Azar Swain -- 1.8
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
