by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Oct 10, 2022
Time: Noon ET
Venue: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Where to watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Michigan -7
FanDuel: Michigan -6.5
BetMGM: Michigan -7.5
Caesars: Michigan -7
Season record
No. 10 Penn State: 5-0 (2-0 Big Ten)
No. 5 Michigan: 6-0 (3-0 Big Ten)
We're about to hit the fun part of college football season where games start getting a little tighter, performances start to become a little more noteworthy, and times at the books are fun for all. You don't believe me? Look at our own Kyle Hunter posting a 25-7-0 run over the last month in college football. That's even with all of the upsets and everything in between. Week 7 is upon us and we're near the point where college football is every day. You want to get back into the swing of things with this? Make sure to follow our Best Bets page and see what our champion handicappers are up to at bigal.com. Who knows? With a little bit of faith in us, you can be like Kyle, or even have as good a run as Sean Murphy at 32-16-1 over the last 30 days. The choices are yours!
Penn State - Michigan preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Penn State: won 17-7 vs. Northwestern
Michigan: won 31-10 at Indiana
If you had this penciled in for your Big Ten Game of the Week, you picked correctly. Because there aren’t that many teams that could potentially take down the Michigan Wolverines and live to tell the tale. There’s Ohio State, but that’s not until the end of the year. So, the next in line and possibly the best chance to do it would be the Penn State Nittany Lions in a battle of top-10 teams in the Big Ten.
If you had this penciled in for your Big Ten Game of the Week, you picked correctly. Because there aren’t that many teams that could potentially take down the Michigan Wolverines and live to tell the tale. There’s Ohio State, but that’s not until the end of the year. So, the next in line and possibly the best chance to do it would be the Penn State Nittany Lions in a battle of top-10 teams in the Big Ten.
It almost feels apropos that this is happening as a day game, when it’d be best suited for a primetime affair. Then again, Alabama and Tennessee aren’t primetime either so really we picked one hell of a week for top-10 matchups to happen before the sun sets. Everyone go crazy.
But seriously, this is going to be a fun game between Penn State and Michigan, and this might be the first time in the James Franklin era – for as long as it’s gone on – that a game means this much this early on. Penn State is undefeated and has a chance to really show for the first time that this team is a legit contender for the conference title. Penn State is coming off a 17-7 win over Northwestern in what was an absurd downpour in Happy Valley. The stats even reflected it.
Sean Clifford threw for just 140 yards and a touchdown along with an interception, but Nick Singleton carried the load himself with 87 yards on 21 carries and a touchdown. The Penn State defense did its part by holding Northwestern to just 241 yards, which was great considering Penn State turned it over five times.
"It was a grimy game," Penn State defensive tackle PJ Mustipher said. "We executed our defense, made the plays we were supposed to and that's about it."
Just so everyone’s aware: Ann Arbor is expected to be 52 degrees and mostly cloudy, so have at that with what you will.
But if Penn State wants to prove it can be with the top dogs of the conference, it needs to be ready for games like Michigan, like Ohio State, like other top-25 Big Ten clubs. This is Penn State’s first real challenge this season. The win at Auburn? Impressive. The win at Purdue? Also impressive. But Michigan is another animal.
The Wolverines are coming off a 31-10 win at Indiana, sweeping the road trip between Hoosierville and Cornland, aka Iowa. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy had the best game of his Michigan career to this point, throwing for 304 yards and three touchdowns, while Blake Corum ran for 124 yards and a touchdown in one of Michigan’s most balanced efforts, especially in the second half. The game was tied at halftime before Michigan took over with all of McCarthy’s touchdown passes coming in the second half. Ronnie Bell led the Wolverines with 121 yards on 11 receptions.
“It was good to see the young quarterback come of age today,” Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh said. “Tough game, tight game, couldn't lean on the ground game today and he did it.”
History is not kind to Penn State in this one. The Nittany Lions have lost six of their last eight straight up when listed as underdogs, and are just 6-5 straight up in their last 11 road games including the two they’ve won this year. Is Penn State ready for big time?
Prediction
My heart says yes, but my brain says no. Michigan is too good on both sides of the ball and the crowd noise may play a factor here. Michigan hasn’t gotten a season-defining win either, and this seems like the perfect time to do it. Michigan by 10
Betting trends
Penn State is 3-5 ATS in its last eight as an underdog.
Penn State is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 road games.
The under is 44-25 since 1992 after a game where Penn State commits three or more turnovers.
The under is 10-3 in Michigan's last 13 home games.
Michigan is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 as a home favorite.
Statistical leaders
Penn State:
Passing: Sean Clifford -- 1,030 yards, 9 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Nick Singleton -- 463 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Parker Washington -- 285 yards
Michigan:
Passing: J.J. McCarthy -- 1,152 yards, 9 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Blake Corum -- 735 yards, 11 TD
Receiving: Ronnie Bell -- 390 yards, 1 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Penn State Nittany Lions - Michigan Wolverines prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
