Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 02/05/2026

Game Time: 6:30 pm ET, Thursday, February 5, 2026

Venue:  Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI 

Where to Watch:  Fox Sports 1

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  PSU +25.5, Michigan -25.5; Over/Under:  164.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  PSU +25.5, Michigan -25.5; Over/Under:  164.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  PSU +25.5, Michigan -25.5; Over/Under:  164.5 points

Penn State Nittany Lions:  10-12 (1-10) (17th place, Big Ten)

Michigan Wolverines:  20-1 (10-1) (1st place, Big Ten)

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Penn State Nittany Lions:  1-4  last 5

Michigan Wolverines:  5-0  last 5

Penn State is entering this game with a 10-12 record overall, a 1-10 record in conference games, and they are 1-5 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Minnesota Golden Gophers in their last game. Freddie Dilione V led the team in points in that game with 25 while Josh Reed was next on the team with 18. Kayden Mingo led the team in assists with 4 in that game while Freddie Dilione V and Kayden Mingo each led the team in rebounds with 5. They were 50% from the field, 38.9% from 3-point range, and 88.9% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 76.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 78.4 PPG against them. Penn State has an ATS record of 9-13 this season and their O/U record is 13-9.

Michigan is entering this game with a 20-1 record overall, a 10-1 conference record, and they are 10-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Michigan State Spartans in their last game. Yaxel Lendeborg led the team in points in that game with 26 while Elliot Cadeau was next on the team with 17. Elliot Cadeau led the team in assists with 6 in that game while Yaxel Lendeborg led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 44.1% from the field, 38.1% from 3-point range, and 88.5% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 90.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 68.9 PPG against them. Michigan has an ATS record of 10-11 this season and their O/U record is 8-13.

The current betting odds have Michigan listed as a 25.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Michigan has looked great in their games this season with their 20-1 record overall and their 10-1 conference record which has them right at the top of the Big Ten. They have looked great on their home court too with their 10-1 home record this season. Meanwhile, Penn State has looked terrible in their games this season with their 10-12 record overall and their 1-10 conference record which has them right near the bottom of the Big Ten. They have been a terrible road team too with their 1-5 road record this year. Penn State is off a win over Minnesota in their last one, but that was their first conference win of the season. They have been one of the worst teams in the Big Ten all year and they have been getting blown out in a lot of their games lately too. That win isn't going to change much for them either, especially now that they are going on the road against the best team in the conference. Michigan's only loss this season was on their own court against Wisconsin in a game that Wisconsin got hot shooting and outplayed Michigan. Michigan hasn't really been outplayed in any other games this season though. They have been rolling again with 6 wins in a row now and a majority of those wins have been by double digits too. They are also off a win over Michigan State in their last one, so that big win will give them some momentum here. Penn State doesn't have the talent to compete with Michigan in this road game, so look for Michigan to continue rolling against one of the worst teams in the conference. The best way to place a bet here is on Michigan to cover the spread in this game. 

Penn State Michigan Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Thursday, February 5, 2026 (6:30 pm ET start time) is Michigan 88 Penn State 57.

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Penn State Nittany Lions: 28-16 ATS as an underdog. 8-2 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent. 10-3 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%). 27-18 OVER as an underdog. 10-3 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%).

Michigan Wolverines: 4-11 ATS when the total is 160 to 169.5. 3-9 ATS off a road win against a conference rival. 19-34 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game. 16-10 OVER after playing a road game. 5-1 OVER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game.

Penn State Nittany Lions:  E. Rice (G) Questionable - Head. I. Juric (F) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Ciani (F) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Mirtic (F) Questionable - Leg. R. Grodin (G) Out - Redshirt.

Michigan Wolverines:  W. Grady (G-F) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Liburd (G-F) Out - Redshirt.

"It's relief, without a doubt. January wasn't a lot of fun around here. We had stretches of good basketball against good teams, but not big enough, not experienced enough, not good enough to win.” - Mike Rhoades after his team’s win against Minnesota in their last game. 

“I know people outside of our tribe will call our guys these derogatory names, (like) mercenaries and whatnot. We have a group of guys that like playing with each other. They appreciate Michigan, and when you see how connected they are, I don’t know how you would classify them as guys playing just for money.” - Dusty May after his team’s win against MSU in their last game. 

I. Juric 

K. Mingo 

J. Reed 

D. Stewart 

M. Tunca

N. Burnett 

E. Cadeau 

M. Johnson 

Y. Lendeborg 

A. Mara

PPG: Kayden Mingo (14.1)

APG: Kayden Mingo (4.7)

Reb/G: Ivan Juric (5.1)

PPG: Yaxel Lendeborg (14.7)

APG: Elliot Cadeau (5.3)

Reb/G: Morez Johnson Jr. (7.2)

Coaches:

Penn State Nittany Lions: Mike Rhoades (3rd season)

Michigan Wolverines: Dusty May (2nd season)