by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Tuesday, Nov 23, 2021
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, November 27, 2021
Venue: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: PSU +1, MSU -1; Over/Under: 51.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: PSU +1, MSU -1; Over/Under: 51.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: PSU +1.5, MSU -1.5; Over/Under: 51.5 points
Season Record
Penn State Nittany Lions: 7-4 (4th place, Big Ten East)
Michigan State Spartans: 9-2 (3rd place, Big Ten East)
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Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan State Spartans Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Penn State Nittany Lions: won at home on Nov. 20 against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights 28-0.
Michigan State Spartans: lost on the road on Nov. 20 against the Ohio State Buckeyes 56-7.
Penn State Nittany Lions Analysis
PSU is coming into this game with a 7-4 record overall and they are 2-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 9th conference matchup of the year and they are currently 4-4 in their conference games this season. They have won 2 of their last 3 games and are coming into this one off of another win in their last game. Sean Clifford threw 2/8 passes for 23 yards before leaving the game with an injury. Christian Veilleux replaced him and played great completing 15/24 passes for 235 yards and 3 touchdowns. Keyvone Lee led the team in rushing with 41 yards and 1 touchdown on 13 carries. Parker Washington led the receivers with 72 yards and 1 touchdown on 6 receptions while Malick Meiga had 67 yards and 1 touchdown on 1 reception. Jahan Dotson caught the other touchdown pass in that one. Ji'Ayir Brown led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. Coziah Izzard and Arnold Ebiketie both recorded the only sacks in that game with 1 each while Jonathan Sutherland came up with the only interception for them in that one. They have scored 288 points in their 11 games this season averaging 26.2 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 171 points against them allowing 15.6 PPG. Their offense is averaging 381.4 YPG while their defense is allowing 334.2 YPG.
Michigan State Spartans Analysis
MSU is coming into this game with a 9-2 record overall and they are 5-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be the 9th conference matchup on their schedule this year and they are currently 6-2 in their conference games this season. They have lost 2 of their last 3 games and are coming into this one off of a loss in their last game. Payton Thorne was alright but could have done much better as he completed 14/36 passes for 158 yards and 1 touchdown. Elijah Collins led the team in rushing with 29 yards on 3 carries while Jordon Simmons led the team in carries with 7 for 23 yards. Tre Mosley led the receivers with 46 yards on 1 reception while Connor Heyward led the team in receptions with 4 for 20 yards. Keon Coleman caught the only touchdown pass in that game for them. Darius Snow led the defense in that game with 13 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones. Drew Beesly and Maverick Hansen both recorded the only sacks in that game for them with 1 each while no one on the defense came up with any interceptions in that one. They have scored 353 points in their 11 games this season averaging 32.1 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 281 points against them allowing 25.6 PPG. Their offense is averaging 430.2 YPG while their defense is allowing 463.2 YPG.
Penn State vs Michigan State Prediction
MSU is coming into this game as a 1 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. MSU has had a great season but it was just derailed in their last game with a loss to Ohio State which pretty much sealed their fate for the season. Penn State already had their fate sealed a few games ago when their losses started to pile up in the final stretch of the regular season. Both teams have really good defenses but the edge goes to MSU as theirs is just better and their offense also moves the ball better than Penn State's offense does. PSU is also a little banged up at the quarterback position and really has not much left to play for in this last game of the regular season here on the road. The best bet to place in this game is on MSU to cover the spread here as they are the better team and will be looking to bounce back after getting wrecked by OSU in their last game.
Penn State Michigan State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 27, 2021 (3:30 pm ET start time) is MSU 28 PSU 21.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Penn State Nittany Lions: 183-172 ATS in all games. 53-40 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 142-127 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest. 122-104 ATS after playing a conference game.
Michigan State Spartans: 30-33 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. 172-183 ATS in all games. 89-99 ATS in home games. 120-123 ATS against conference opponents. 115-126 ATS after playing a conference game.
Key Injuries
Penn State Nittany Lions: T. Roberson (QB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. P. Mustipher (DT) out for season - Knee injury. S. Wormley (OL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed injury. H. Beamon (DT) out for season - Undisclosed injury.
Michigan State Spartans: M. Carrick (G) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. I. Stewart (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. J. Nailor (WR) Ques Sat - Hand injury.
Notable Quotes
"We faced as much adversity in this game as I've been around." - James Franklin on his team’s win against Rutgers in their last game.
"We got blasted. We were not able to eliminate the explosive plays on defense and were not able to execute on offense." - Mel Tucker on his team’s loss against OSU in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Penn State Nittany Lions
WR Dotson, Jahan
WR Lambert-Smith, KeAndre
WR Parker Washington
TE Strange, Brenton
QB Clifford, Sean
RB Noah Cain
Michigan State Spartans
WR Reed, Jayden
WR Nailor, Jalen
WR Mosley, Tre
TE Heyward, Connor
QB Thorne, Payton
RB Walker III, Kenneth
Statistical Leaders
Penn State Nittany Lions
Passing: S. Clifford (2599)
Rushing: K. Lee (416)
Receiving: J. Dotson (1045)
Touchdowns: J. Dotson (10)
Michigan State Spartans
Passing: P. Thorne (2618)
Rushing: K. Walker III (1508)
Receiving: J. Reed (857)
Touchdowns: K. Walker III (17)
Coaches:
Penn State Nittany Lions: James Franklin (8th season)
Michigan State Spartans: Mel Tucker (2nd season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
