by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Nov 21, 2023
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Friday, November 24, 2023
Venue: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Where to Watch: NBC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: PSU -20.5, MSU +20.5; Over/Under: 43 points
Bet365: Point Spread: PSU -21, MSU +21; Over/Under: 42.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: PSU -20.5, MSU +20.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Season Record
Penn State Nittany Lions: 9-2 (6-2) (3rd place, Big Ten East)
Michigan State Spartans: 4-7 (2-6) (6th place, Big Ten East)
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Penn State Nittany Lions: won their last game at home against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights 27-6.
Michigan State Spartans: won their last game on the road against the Indiana Hoosiers 24-21.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan State Spartans Preview and Analysis
Penn State is entering this game with a 9-2 record overall and they have a 6-2 record in their conference games too. They are 6-1 in their home games, 3-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Rutgers 27-6. Drew Allar was the starting QB and he completed 6/13 passes for 79 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Beau Pribula led the team in rushing yards with 71 and 1 TD. Tyler Warren led the receivers with 32 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Kobe King led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Ta'Mere Robinson and Johnny Dixon each led the defense in sacks with 1. Kevin Winston Jr. came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Michigan State is entering this game with a 4-7 record overall and they have a 2-6 record in their conference games too. They are 3-3 in their home games, 1-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Indiana 24-21. Katin Houser was the starting QB and he completed 26/41 passes for 245 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Nathan Carter led the team in rushing yards with 42. Maliq Carr led the receivers with 100 receiving yards on 9 receptions and 2 TDs. Malik Spencer led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Jordan Hall and Simeon Barrow each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Penn State vs Michigan State Prediction
The current betting odds have Penn State listed as a 20.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Penn State has looked great in their games this season with their 9-2 record overall and their 6-2 conference record. Their only 2 losses this year were against Michigan and Ohio State who are both ranked higher than PSU. Penn State has done a really good job beating up on the bad teams in their conference this season and they are getting another one here with Michigan State. Michigan State has been terrible all season with their 4-7 record overall and their 2-6 conference record. They had to fire their head coach midway through the season due to some off-field issues and they have been in a spiral ever since. They can't even become bowl eligible with 7 losses already and they can't spoil Penn State's season either since it already has been so Michigan State really has nothing left to play for in this game. Penn State doesn't have much to play for either but they do have a much better team that will be looking to finish the season strong and show how good they are since their 2 losses were against teams ranked higher. The best way to place a bet here is on Penn State to cover the spread in this game.
Penn State Michigan State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, November 24, 2023 (7:30 pm ET start time) is PSU 41 MSU 10.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Penn State Nittany Lions: 24-12 ATS in all games. 21-6 ATS as a favorite. 16-9 ATS against conference opponents. 14-6 ATS after playing a game at home. 8-0 OVER off a home win against a conference rival. 11-5 OVER off a home win. 8-4 OVER after 5 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
Michigan State Spartans: 18-32 ATS after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game. 3-7 ATS on a neutral field where the total is between 42.5 and 49. 12-6 OVER as a neutral field underdog. 6-0 OVER off 2 or more consecutive unders. 7-2 OVER off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less.
Key Injuries
Penn State Nittany Lions: T. Holzworth (RB) Ques Fri - Undisclosed. F. Oluleye (WR) Ques Fri - Undisclosed. A. Rappleyea (TE) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. J. Estrella (WR) Ques Fri - Undisclosed. M. Stahl (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. H. Wallace III (WR) Out indefinitely - Arm. J. Mahlert (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. D. Kency (RB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. M. Robinson (DE) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. J. Green (S) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. I. Harvie (OL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. K. Kiesewetter (QB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. T. Johnson (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. A. Ford Jr. (DT) out for season - Undisclosed.
Michigan State Spartans: J. Glover (WR) Doub Fri - Foot. T. Mosley (WR) Doub Fri - Undisclosed. N. Carter (RB) Prob Fri - Undisclosed. N. Kim (QB) Ques Fri - Undisclosed. D. Tatum (DB) Ques Fri - Undisclosed. N. Samac (C) Ques Fri - Leg. M. Hansen (DL) Ques Fri - Undisclosed. B. Parachek (TE) Ques Fri - Undisclosed. D. Snow (LB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. J. Berger (RB) out for season - Undisclosed. J. Martinez (RB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. C. Dellinger (OL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. J. Barbarin (RB) out for season - Undisclosed. S. Ramil (OL) out for season - Knee. G. Broscious (OL) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Windmon (LB) out for season - Pectoral. Q. Carter (LB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. S. Melvin (DB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. M. Gaoteote (LB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. A. VanSumeren (DL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. A. Smith (DB) out for season - Undisclosed. T. Hopper (TE) Out indefinitely - Leg.
Notable Quotes
“I think we did a really good job having a plan and our backs ran extremely hard.” - James Franklin after his team’s win against Rutgers in their last game.
“Maliq is a baller, we all know that here. He’s a really good football player. Just ask him, he’ll tell you.” - Harlon Bennett after his team’s win against Indiana in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Penn State Nittany Lions
WR Cephas, Dante
WR Lambert-Smith, KeAndre
WR Saunders, Kaden
TE Johnson, Theo
TE Warren, Tyler
QB Allar, Drew
RB Singleton, Nicholas
Michigan State Spartans
WR Foster Jr., Montorie
WR Brown, Alante
WR Henry, Tyrell
TE Morris, Evan
QB Houser, Katin
RB Carter, Nathan
Statistical Leaders
Penn State Nittany Lions
Passing: D. Allar (2044)
Rushing: K. Allen (714)
Receiving: K. Lambert-Smith (651)
Touchdowns: N. Singleton (8)
Michigan State Spartans
Passing: N. Kim (1090)
Rushing: N. Carter (753)
Receiving: M. Foster Jr. (540)
Touchdowns: N. Carter (4)
Coaches:
Penn State Nittany Lions: James Franklin (10th season)
Michigan State Spartans: Harlon Barnett (Interim)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
