Penn State Nittany Lions vs Iowa Hawkeyes Picks Spread and Trends to Watch - 10/10/2021

by James Q

Penn State Nittany Lions vs Iowa Hawkeyes Picks Spread and Trends to Watch - 10/10/2021

Game Time:  1:00 PM ET, Saturday, October 9th, 2021
Venue:  Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa
Where to Watch: Fox

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Spread: Iowa -2.5; Over/Under:  40.5 points
Circa:  Spread: Iowa -2.5; Over/Under:  41.5 points
VegasInsider:  Spread:  Iowa -2; Over/Under: 41.5 points

Season Record

Penn State:  5-0 (Big Ten)
Iowa:  5-0 (Big Ten West)

There are big games because of rivalry.  There are big games because of regional proximity.  In college football rarely do we get big games because they are flat-out big games!!  Number 3 Iowa will take on number 4 Penn State!  Both of these coaches are looking to take their team to the college football playoff and potentially the National Championship game!  The dreams are big.  The USC job may be in the balance. Immortality may be in the balance.  This is a matchup that will defy college football picks across Sportsbooks everywhere and cause gamblers to actually watch and root for their favorite.
Burns' college football plays are 6-2/75% this month. Going back further finds Ben at 29-16 his L45 college football plays. His Conf. GAME OF THE YEAR selections are 100% PERFECT this season and the SBC version goes Friday. If you liked last Friday's LAUGHER on Iowa 'over' the total, you're going to LOVE this play. Don't wait! Get Ben’s pick!!. It's available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.


Penn State vs Iowa Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
Penn State is rolling. The Penn State players are coming through big in big moments.  They opened in game 1 with a big win over Wisconsin 16-10. Game 2 was an easy win against Ball State 44-13.  Game 3 was a win over Auburn, a great measuring stick since they are ranked #18, 28-20.  Game 4 was a coast against Villanova 38-17.  Game 5 was advertised as a tough opponent against Indiana, it turned into a blowout 24-0.  Penn State games have become a rubber stamp of success.
Iowa is also rolling.  In fact some would argue Iowa already had their statement game of the season when they beat Iowa State in the rival game that for the first time featured top ten teams against each other.  In game 1 Iowa beat Indiana 34-6 (the same margin Penn State beat them with). In game 2 Iowa beat Iowa state 27-17. Many high-fives were had, a trophy resembling farm equipment or corn was exchanged, children were conceived, a good time was had by all.  Game 3 was an easy win over Kent State 30-7.  Game 4 was an easy win over Colorado State 24-14. Game 5 was a blow-out against Maryland 51-14.  Iowa is in unchartered territory 5-0 and having already beaten Iowa State is not the common season.

Offensive Analysis

Penn State is ranked 52nd in the FBS in offense.  They have scored 18 touchdowns on 418.6 yards per game.  They also are 46th in penalties per game. Their weakness would be first downs where they slip tied for 57th with a respectable 105.  Of course, the amount of first downs you have may well be tied to the amount of first downs you need.  Sean Clifford is the QB completing 67.3% of his passes with 11 TDs, 3 Interceptions, and has been sacked 7 times.  Moving forward they will have to shore up the O-line.  Rb Noah Cain leads a rushing attack that also involves RB Keyvone Lee, and the QB himself Sean Clifford.  WR Jahan Dotson has 35 catches averaging 12.7 yards per, Wr Parker Washington is close behind with 25 catches but a 13.2 yards per catch number, WR KaAndre Lambert-Smith is behind that with only 13 catches, but averaging 17.2 yards per… the big wallop is Tight end Theo Johnston with only 5 catches… averaging 22.2 yards per.  This is a team that can run and pass the ball.

Iowa is ranked 118th in offense.  They are a ground and pound and let the defense worry squad.  They have scored 17 touchdowns on 320 yards per game. QB Spencer Petra is still under 100 yards passing after 5 games.  He is 85-137 with 62% completion rate, 7 TD, 1 INT, and has been sacked 11 times. RB Tyler Goodson does the rushing with a small assist from RB Ivory Kelly-Martin.  TE Sam LaPorta has 22 catches to lead the team in yardage, WRs Tyler Goodson and Nico Ragaini lead a squad that has completed passes to 14 different receivers.

Defensive Analysis

Penn State is 33rd in defense having given up 6 TDs total on 314.2 yards per game.  They have bruising linebackers as Pennsylvania is known to produce… they have tough pass coverage… they need more sacks!  In the area of sacks they drop to tied for 103rd with an average of 1.60 per game.  A 5-0 team in the NCAA with serious aspirations will need a better pass rush to keep moving forward.

Iowa ranks 7th in team defense.  They have given up 7 touchdowns on 271.4 yards per game.  The Hawkeyes’ defense is clearly where their bread is buttered.  Iowa players play their position and back their brothers. In head to head matchups against a strong ground game the Iowa defense can win anywhere.  However in pass defense per contest Iowa drops to 27th, still great but indicating of a weakness.

Lions vs Hawkeyes Prediction

Our prediction for Saturday, October 10th is… Penn State 31 - Iowa 27

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NCAAF Betting Trends

Penn State is 4-1 ATs this season.
Penn State is 7-3 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons.
Penn State is 8-3 ATS off a win against a conference rival, last 3 seasons.
Iowa is 4-1 ATs this season.
Iowa is 8-4 AT^s off a win against a conference rival, last 3 seasons.


Key Injuries

Penn State:  DE Hakeem Beamon (undisclosed) Questionable * CB Keaton Ellis (undisclosed) questionable  * OL Sal Wormley (undisclosed) Questionable

Iowa:  DL Logan Jones (knee) Questionable  *  DL Ethan Hurkett (leg) Out indefinitely

Players to Watch

This is a watch the defense game.  The defense that buckles instead of bending is the team that loses.  I think Iowa will not be able to keep up with Penn State’s passing attack combined with Penn State’s O-line giving Sean Clifford time to operate.

Starting Lineups

Penn State:  QB Sean Clifford, RB Noah Cain, TE Brenton Strange, WR Jahan Dotson, WR Parker Washington, WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith, LT Rasheed Walker, LG Eric Wilson, C Mike Miranda, RG Juice Scruggs, RT Caedan Wallace
Iowa: QB Spencer Petras, RB Tyler Goodson, TE Sam LaPorta, Wr Tyrone Tracy, WR Nico Ragaini, LT Mason Richman, LG Kyler Schott, C Tyler Linderbaum, RG Connor Colby, RT Nick DeJong, FB Monte Pottebaum

Statistical Leaders

Penn State
Passing: Sean Clifford 1,336 yards
Rushing: Noah Cain 187 yards
Receiving: Jahan Dotson  446 yards
Tackles:  Brandon Smith  32
Interceptions:  Ji’Ayir Brown 3

Passing: Spencer Petras 943 yards
Rushing: Tyler Goodson  430 yards
Receiving: Sam LaPorta 262 yards
Tackles:  Jack Campbell  46
Interceptions:  Riley Moss 3



Weather Forecast

Mostly Cloudy.  84* Humidity 57%.  Wind 14 mph.

James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

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