by James Q
Saturday, Nov 27, 2021Penn Quakers vs Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction Spread and Trends to Watch - 11/28/2021
Game Time: 4:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 28th, 2021
Venue: Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, Arkansas
Where to Watch: SEC Network (owned by ESPN)
Opening NCAAB Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings Sportsbook: Spread: N/A
Caesars: Spread: Arkansas -19
PointsBet: Spread: Arkansas -19.5
Season Record
Penn: 0-0 conf, 3-5 overall (Ivy League)
Arkansas: 0-0 conf, 5-0 overall (SEC)
A matchup of disparate opponents. Penn is the obvious underdog. We only have two questions… Can Penn cover the spread? And will it go Over or Under the total points?
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Penn Quakers vs Arkansas Razorbacks Preview and Analysis
RECENT FORM
Pennsylvania is 3-5 on the season and 3-5 ATS. They have logged 5 Overs and 3 Unders. They are 1-3 in road games so far this season. They lost their last game to Towson 76-61. The game hit the Over which was set at 133.5… it was their second Over in a row.
The Arkansas odds are good in this one. Arkansas is 5-0 on the season and 3-2 ATS. They are a perfect 3-0 in home games. They opened the season by not covering a -19 spread against Mercer, they followed that up by not covering a -20.5 spread against Gardner-Webb. Since, the spreads have come down and they have covered the last three in a row. In their last game the Razorbacks covered a -5 spread against Cincinnati with a 73-67 win. They are on a two-game Under streak.
OFFENSIVE ANALYSIS
Penn on offense is 218th in college basketball in ppg with 70.6 per, 203rd in college basketball in AST/TO ratio with a 0.9
The Arkansas Offense is performing well. They are 66th in PTS with 79.6 per game. They are 31st in assist-to turnover ratio with 1.5. The glaring weakness for the Razorbacks is shooting, they are clearly more of a cutting to the basket, grinding the paint and rim team. They are 212th in college basketball in FG% 43.4…. 240th in 3PT% 31.5. They fare much better at the free throw line where they are 86th with a solid 74.2%
DEFENSIVE ANALYSIS
Penn on defense is 259th in college basketball in rebounds per game with 31.3 per and 168th in blocks per game with 3.4 per. They rank 305th in defending points by giving up 76.9 per game.
Arkansas is 174th in defending points, by allowing 68.2 per game. They are dreadful at defending the 3-pointer… They rank 302nd as they watch the opposition shoot 37.2% against them.
Penn Quakers vs Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction
Our prediction for Sunday, November 28th, is… Arkansas 83 - Penn 59
Arkansas will handle Penn in this contest easily, but they won’t cover a -19. They haven’t covered the other two times the spread has been -19 to -20. Penn looks like they could take Gardner-Webb in a head to head matchup and Mercer.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
There have been no past matchups of this series going all the way back to 1997 ( I imagine much longer than that as well)
Penn is 11-8 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons.
Penn is 9-5 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
Ark is 31-21 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Ark is 23-14 ATS in all home games over the last 3 seasons.
Starting Lineups
Penn: PG Jordan Dingle, SG Jelani Williams, SF Jonah Charles, PF Max Martz, C Max Lorca-Lloyd
Arkansas: PG J.D. Notae, SG Davonte Davis, SF Au’Diese Toney, PF Jaylin Williams, C Connor Vanover
Statistical Leaders
Penn
Points: Jordan Dingle 19.6
Rebounds: Nick Spinoso 4.9
Assists: Jordan Dingle 3.2
Steals: Jelani Williams 1.2
Blocks: Max Lorca-Lloyd 1.5
Arkansas
Points JD Notae 17.8
Rebounds: Jaylin Williams 8.2
Assists: Jaylin Williams 4.4
Steals: JD Notae 3.2
Blocks: Connor Vanover 1.5
Coaches
Penn: Steve Donahue. Coach Donahue has had the head coaching job at Penn since 2015-16. His Penn record is 83-64. Prior to this gig he did 4 seasons at Boston College and prior to that he did a decade head coaching at Cornell.
Arkansas: Eric Musselman. Coach Musselman is the son of former NBA head coach Bill Musselman. Eric Musselman has had some great gigs along the way to head coach of men’s basketball at Arkansas, he’s been the head coach of the Sacramento Kings in the NBA and the Golden State Warriors in the NBA.
James Q
About the Author:
James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.
