by Hollywood Sports
Tuesday, Jun 30, 2026The finals of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League season featured a rematch of one of the semifinal matches last year.
Arsenal reached the finals of the European championship with their 2-1 aggregate score victory against Atletico Madrid in the semifinals in early May. Paris Saint-Germain advanced to the finals of the Champions League knockout stage with their 6-5 aggregate victory against Bayern Munich in their semifinal matchup that concluded in early May. The match took place on a neutral pitch at Puskas Arena in Budapest, Hungary.
The results in the semifinals of the Champions League last season were instructive regarding how this rematch would play out. After winning the first leg by a 1-0 score, Les Parisiens took a commanding 3-0 lead in the aggregate at the 72nd-minute mark of the second leg before the Gunners had to change tactics and get very aggressive, which helped them score one goal before losing the aggregate score by a 3-1 margin. After only four combined goals were scored in those 180 combined minutes, another lower-scoring contest between these two sides was expected.
If Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta was already expected to embrace conservative and defensive tactics against PSG, then he most certainly would employ that strategy, given his tactical concerns at right back in his defensive line. Jurrien Timber had been out since March with a serious groin injury. Backup right back Ben White was injured. Arteta recently tried moving jack-of-all-trades midfielder Declan Rice to right back in a match against West Ham United, but it did not work. That left Arteta with two less-than-ideal options at right back. The good news was that Timber has been training and is able to take the pitch in this critical match. But, shaking off the proverbial rust and questions regarding his endurance remain. His other option was Cristian Mosquera, who had been his starter down the stretch this season — but he was very inexperienced for a big stage like this. In practice, Arteta was going to have to use both players with the prospect of an additional 30 minutes of extra time being played if this match is still tied after 90 minutes of regulation time (plus stoppage time).
Right back is the glaring weakness of this Gunners squad on the second-to-last day in May — and that was a frightening prospect against Les Parisiens, who enjoy a speedy and explosive offensive attack. Led by their front three of Ousmane Dembele, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Desire Doue, PSG led all Champions League participants with 44 goals in the competition — and 23 of those goals came in their eight knockout stage matches. They had scored multiple goals in seven of their last eight matches in the Champions League. Dembele was the reigning Ballon d’Or winner after leading Les Bleus to Ligue 1 and the Champions League title last year. Kvaratskhelia might be even better after scoring 10 goals and adding six assists in the Champions League this season — those 16 goal involvements were the most in the competition. Doué is a rising superstar — just wait for when he teams with Kylian Mbappe for the French national team at the World Cup in two weeks.
Arsenal’s bread-and-butter is to play rock-solid defense, limit mistakes, and execute at an elite level on set pieces. They only allowed six goals in their 14 matches in the Champions League — and their nine clean sheets were second most in the history of this competition to the 10 clean sheets registered by Real Madrid in the 2015-16 season. In their 38 matches in the English Premier League this season, the 27 goals they conceded were the fewest of all 20 sides. In their last seven matches across all competitions, they had only conceded twice, and they registered five clean sheets. But before their 2-1 win against Crystal Palace, with both managers using rotated starting lineups in a match that had no bearing, Arsenal played three straight matches where they won by 1-0 scores. They had scored no more than one goal in 11 of their last 13 matches. Arteta’s vision is to win this match by a 1-0 score — and a nil-nil draw after regulation time would be fine (when the books settle over/under wagers).
Don’t underestimate PSG’s defensive prowess. Fullbacks Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes are two of the best defensive players in the world. Center back Willian Pacho was outstanding in limiting Bayern Munich to just one goal in the second leg of their semifinal match in Germany on May 6th. Some observers may have looked at PSG’s 5-4 win at home in the first leg against the Bavarians and concluded that manager Luis Enrique’s side was looking for shootouts. But that match was simply an exquisite display of offensive efficiency from both sides (and Bayern Munich emphasized their offensive tactics). In a match when the books installed the over/under at 3.5, there were only 3.06 combined expected Goals (xG) scored despite the nine combined actual goals. Subtly, Enrique had been preparing his team for a rock fight this month. They had not scored more than two goals in five straight matches across all competitions. In their last four matches across all competitions, they had surrendered only three goals — and they had registered two clean sheets. Arsenal is at their most dangerous when counter-attacking — and Enrique would be well aware of that and not have his side take too many risks. PSG would likely control ball possession in this match. Staying patient and being clinical is a good formula for success against a Gunners side that is not a dynamic goal-scoring squad.
It was far from an ideal start for those of us holding (expensive) Under tickets when Kai Havertz scored the opening goal for Arsenal in the sixth minute of the match. On the other hand, the early lead may have cemented Arteta’s commitment to cautious and defensive tactics. But in the second half, Dembele was awarded a penalty kick, which he converted to even the score at 1-1. The match was scoreless the rest of the way, so the penalty kick shootout settled things. With Under tickets now cashing, PSG won the shootout by a 4-3 margin to become repeat winners of the UEFA Champions League.
The deeper metrics validate the lower-scoring match. PSG controlled possession and took 21 shots, but only four of those shots were on target. They generated 1.72 expected Goals, which was certainly flirting with two goals in regulation time. But Arsenal’s conservative tactics resulted in just 0.5 expected Goals from a mere seven shots, with Havertz’s shot being the only one on target.
Best of luck — Frank.
Arsenal reached the finals of the European championship with their 2-1 aggregate score victory against Atletico Madrid in the semifinals in early May. Paris Saint-Germain advanced to the finals of the Champions League knockout stage with their 6-5 aggregate victory against Bayern Munich in their semifinal matchup that concluded in early May. The match took place on a neutral pitch at Puskas Arena in Budapest, Hungary.
The results in the semifinals of the Champions League last season were instructive regarding how this rematch would play out. After winning the first leg by a 1-0 score, Les Parisiens took a commanding 3-0 lead in the aggregate at the 72nd-minute mark of the second leg before the Gunners had to change tactics and get very aggressive, which helped them score one goal before losing the aggregate score by a 3-1 margin. After only four combined goals were scored in those 180 combined minutes, another lower-scoring contest between these two sides was expected.
If Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta was already expected to embrace conservative and defensive tactics against PSG, then he most certainly would employ that strategy, given his tactical concerns at right back in his defensive line. Jurrien Timber had been out since March with a serious groin injury. Backup right back Ben White was injured. Arteta recently tried moving jack-of-all-trades midfielder Declan Rice to right back in a match against West Ham United, but it did not work. That left Arteta with two less-than-ideal options at right back. The good news was that Timber has been training and is able to take the pitch in this critical match. But, shaking off the proverbial rust and questions regarding his endurance remain. His other option was Cristian Mosquera, who had been his starter down the stretch this season — but he was very inexperienced for a big stage like this. In practice, Arteta was going to have to use both players with the prospect of an additional 30 minutes of extra time being played if this match is still tied after 90 minutes of regulation time (plus stoppage time).
Right back is the glaring weakness of this Gunners squad on the second-to-last day in May — and that was a frightening prospect against Les Parisiens, who enjoy a speedy and explosive offensive attack. Led by their front three of Ousmane Dembele, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Desire Doue, PSG led all Champions League participants with 44 goals in the competition — and 23 of those goals came in their eight knockout stage matches. They had scored multiple goals in seven of their last eight matches in the Champions League. Dembele was the reigning Ballon d’Or winner after leading Les Bleus to Ligue 1 and the Champions League title last year. Kvaratskhelia might be even better after scoring 10 goals and adding six assists in the Champions League this season — those 16 goal involvements were the most in the competition. Doué is a rising superstar — just wait for when he teams with Kylian Mbappe for the French national team at the World Cup in two weeks.
Arsenal’s bread-and-butter is to play rock-solid defense, limit mistakes, and execute at an elite level on set pieces. They only allowed six goals in their 14 matches in the Champions League — and their nine clean sheets were second most in the history of this competition to the 10 clean sheets registered by Real Madrid in the 2015-16 season. In their 38 matches in the English Premier League this season, the 27 goals they conceded were the fewest of all 20 sides. In their last seven matches across all competitions, they had only conceded twice, and they registered five clean sheets. But before their 2-1 win against Crystal Palace, with both managers using rotated starting lineups in a match that had no bearing, Arsenal played three straight matches where they won by 1-0 scores. They had scored no more than one goal in 11 of their last 13 matches. Arteta’s vision is to win this match by a 1-0 score — and a nil-nil draw after regulation time would be fine (when the books settle over/under wagers).
Don’t underestimate PSG’s defensive prowess. Fullbacks Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes are two of the best defensive players in the world. Center back Willian Pacho was outstanding in limiting Bayern Munich to just one goal in the second leg of their semifinal match in Germany on May 6th. Some observers may have looked at PSG’s 5-4 win at home in the first leg against the Bavarians and concluded that manager Luis Enrique’s side was looking for shootouts. But that match was simply an exquisite display of offensive efficiency from both sides (and Bayern Munich emphasized their offensive tactics). In a match when the books installed the over/under at 3.5, there were only 3.06 combined expected Goals (xG) scored despite the nine combined actual goals. Subtly, Enrique had been preparing his team for a rock fight this month. They had not scored more than two goals in five straight matches across all competitions. In their last four matches across all competitions, they had surrendered only three goals — and they had registered two clean sheets. Arsenal is at their most dangerous when counter-attacking — and Enrique would be well aware of that and not have his side take too many risks. PSG would likely control ball possession in this match. Staying patient and being clinical is a good formula for success against a Gunners side that is not a dynamic goal-scoring squad.
It was far from an ideal start for those of us holding (expensive) Under tickets when Kai Havertz scored the opening goal for Arsenal in the sixth minute of the match. On the other hand, the early lead may have cemented Arteta’s commitment to cautious and defensive tactics. But in the second half, Dembele was awarded a penalty kick, which he converted to even the score at 1-1. The match was scoreless the rest of the way, so the penalty kick shootout settled things. With Under tickets now cashing, PSG won the shootout by a 4-3 margin to become repeat winners of the UEFA Champions League.
The deeper metrics validate the lower-scoring match. PSG controlled possession and took 21 shots, but only four of those shots were on target. They generated 1.72 expected Goals, which was certainly flirting with two goals in regulation time. But Arsenal’s conservative tactics resulted in just 0.5 expected Goals from a mere seven shots, with Havertz’s shot being the only one on target.
Best of luck — Frank.
