Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/29/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Venue:  Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Senators +142, Leafs -170; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Senators +140, Leafs -165; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Senators +140, Leafs -165; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Ottawa Senators:  45-30-7 (4th place, Atlantic Division)

Toronto Maple Leafs:  52-26-4 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

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Ottawa Senators:  5-2-3 last 10

Toronto Maple Leafs:  8-1-1 last 10

The Senators are entering the playoffs with 97 points, a 45-30-7 record overall, and they were 18-19-4 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last game, winning that one at home 4-3 in overtime. Jake Sanderson, David Perron, Shane Pinto, and Tim Stützle each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Jake Sanderson, Adam Gaudette, Brady Tkachuk, and Artem Zub each led the team in assists with 1 while David Perron led the team in shots on net in that game with 4. Linus Ullmark was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 34 shots with 31 saves and a .912 save percentage. Their offense has scored 243 goals this season averaging 3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 234 goals against them allowing 2.9 goals per game.

The Maple Leafs are entering the playoffs with 108 points, a 52-26-4 record overall, and they were 27-13-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Ottawa Senators in their last game, losing that one on the road 4-3 in OT. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Matthew Knies, and John Tavares each scored 1 goal for them in that one. William Nylander led the team in assists with 2 while William Nylander led the team in shots on net in that game with 6. Anthony Stolarz was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 4 goals on 21 shots with 17 saves and a .809 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 268 goals this season averaging 3.3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 231 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Maple Leafs listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 5 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Maple Leafs and the 1st Wild Card seeded Senators from the Atlantic Division for the 1st round of the NHL playoffs. The Maple Leafs are leading this series 3-1 after the Senators won game 4 at home. The Senators made it a 3-1 series with a 4-3 win in OT over the Maple Leafs in the 4th game, but that was a really tough game for them to win at home and all they really did was avoid getting swept. The last 3 games in this series have all gone to overtime, but the Maple Leafs won 2 of those games and they just continue to find ways to win. Even in the last game, the Senators couldn't hold onto a lead for long when they would get one. All the Senators have done with that win is extend a series that is already over. Very few teams have come back from a 3-0 series deficit in NHL history and the Maple Leafs are just going to go back home and end this series in game 5. The home games in this series were very important for the Senators since they looked a lot better on home ice all year and were terrible on the road with their 18-19-4 road record. The Maple Leafs have looked great on home ice all year and they are going to bring their best effort to end this series as quickly as possible. The Maple Leafs also have the playoff experience to draw on and know how to close out a series while the Senators don't have that kind of experience on their side. The best way to place a bet here is on the Maple Leafs to win this game. 

Senators Maple Leafs Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Tuesday, April 29, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Leafs 4 Senators 1.

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Ottawa Senators: 24-21 (+8.9 units) on the moneyline as a road underdog of +100 to +150. 20-6 (+15.8 units) on the moneyline off a home win against a division rival. 70-52 (+14.7 units) on the moneyline after playing a home game. 27-13 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

Toronto Maple Leafs: 122-80 (-23.4 units) on the moneyline as a favorite. 79-53 (-9.7 units) on the moneyline in home games. 59-48 (-16.3 units) on the moneyline revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite. 9-5 UNDER in a home game where the total is 5.5.

Ottawa Senators:  H. Hodgson (RW) Day To Day - Lower-body. 

Toronto Maple Leafs:  J. Hakanpaa (D) Out - Knee.

“I don’t know if it was a boost, but relief. Anytime a team like Toronto gets a four-minute power play, you know you’re in one, especially with how good their power play is. A lot of credit to our penalty kill tonight. They really got the job done. Gutsy effort.” - Travis Green after his team’s win against the Maple Leafs in game 4 of this series on Saturday.

“He was solid. That last goal, he can’t see anything there. I mean, there were a lot of people in front of him on that shot. He made a lot of good saves for us. I thought he was comfortable, played well. I’m not concerned about Stolarz.” - Craig Berube after his team’s loss against the Senators in game 4 of this series on Saturday.

LW Brady Tkachuk

C Tim Stutzle

RW Claude Giroux

LD Jake Sanderson

RD Artyom Zub

G Linus Ullmark

LW Matthew Knies

C Auston Matthews

RW Mitchell Marner

LD Jake McCabe

RD Christopher Tanev

G Anthony Stolarz

Points: T. Stutzle (79)

Goals: B. Tkachuk (29)

Assists: T. Stutzle (55)

GAA: L. Ullmark (2.72)

Points: M. Marner (102)

Goals: W. Nylander (45)

Assists: M. Marner (75)

GAA: A. Stolarz (2.14)

Coaches:

Ottawa Senators: Travis Green (1st season)

Toronto Maple Leafs: Craig Berube (1st season)