Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/20/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Sunday, April 20, 2025

Venue:  Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Senators +136, Leafs -162; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Senators +130, Leafs -155; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Senators +135, Leafs -160; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Ottawa Senators:  45-30-7 (4th place, Atlantic Division)

Toronto Maple Leafs:  52-26-4 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

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Ottawa Senators:  6-2-2 last 10

Toronto Maple Leafs:  9-1-0 last 10

The Senators are entering the playoffs with 97 points, a 45-30-7 record overall, and they were 18-19-4 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Carolina Hurricanes in their last game, winning that one at home 7-5. Drake Batherson and Adam Gaudette each led the team in goals scored with 2 while Dylan Cozens, Tim Stützle, and Shane Pinto each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Dylan Cozens, Tim Stützle, and Jake Sanderson each led the team in assists with 2 while Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle, and Fabian Zetterlund each led the team in shots on net in that game with 4. Linus Ullmark was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 5 goals on 33 shots with 28 saves and a .848 save percentage. Their offense has scored 243 goals this season averaging 3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 234 goals against them allowing 2.9 goals per game.

The Maple Leafs are entering the playoffs with 108 points, a 52-26-4 record overall, and they were 27-13-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Detroit Red Wings in their last game, winning that one at home 4-3 in overtime. Scott Laughton, Auston Matthews, Philippe Myers, and Christopher Tanev each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Matthew Knies and Mitchell Marner each led the team in assists with 2 while Steven Lorentz led the team in shots on net in that game with 4. Joseph Woll was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 34 shots with 31 saves and a .912 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 268 goals this season averaging 3.3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 231 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Maple Leafs listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 1 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Maple Leafs and the 1st Wild Card seeded Senators from the Atlantic Division for the 1st round of the NHL playoffs. The Maple Leafs have looked great in their games this season with a record that has them at the top of their division in the East with the 2nd best record in the conference. They have also looked great on home ice this year which will be big for them since they will have home advantage for most of the playoffs if they can go deep. Meanwhile, the Senators have looked good in their games this season with a record that got them the 1st Wild Card spot, but they have enough points where they would be the 2nd place team in the Metro Division. They haven't been a good road team though with a losing road record this year. This is going to be a really tough series for both teams with it being the battle of Ontario, and the Senators have had a lot of success against the Maple Leafs this season. The Senators won all 3 of their games against the Maple Leafs this season, but that is only going to fuel the Maple Leafs more in this game. The Maple Leafs are going to bring their best effort to set the tone in this series and they have been the hotter team to end the regular season. The Maple Leafs haven't had a ton of playoff success in recent years, but they still have a lot more experience to draw on than this Senators team does. The best way to place a bet here is on the Maple Leafs to win this game. 

Senators Maple Leafs Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Sunday, April 20, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Leafs 4 Senators 2.

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Ottawa Senators: 24-19 (+10.9 units) on the moneyline as a road underdog of +100 to +150. 42-27 (+13.8 units) on the moneyline off a home win. 76-57 (+9.7 units) on the moneyline against poor defensive teams - 29 shots on goal or more, convert 17% pp or more. 25-11 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

Toronto Maple Leafs: 155-107 (-10.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 120-80 (-25.4 units) on the moneyline as a favorite. 58-48 (-17.3 units) on the moneyline revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite. 8-4 UNDER in a home game where where the total is 5.5.

Ottawa Senators:  H. Hodgson (RW) Day To Day - Lower-body. 

Toronto Maple Leafs:  O. Ekman-Larsson (D) Day To Day - Upper-body. D. Kampf (C) Day To Day - Upper Body. J. McCabe (D) Day To Day - Upper-body. M. Pacioretty (LW) Out - Undisclosed. J. Hakanpaa (D) Out - Knee.

“I’m really happy with the way our group has played (this season). You come into a new job, you’re not quite sure, you don’t know the players, and from Day 1, I’ve said, like, they’ve been very coachable and they’ve got a burning desire to win, and they’ve done nothing but show that.” - Travis Green after his team’s win against the Hurricanes in their regular season finale. 

“I thought our first period was fine considering the game and the situation. The second period got a little loose and sloppy, but I thought our guys brought it back to earth in the third and played the right way, a little more direct. We were fortunate to get that tying goal. I was happy for Tanev, and we ended up winning in OT. Considering the situation, guys did what they had to do.” - Craig Berube after his team’s win against the Red Wings in their regular season finale. 

LW Brady Tkachuk

C Tim Stutzle

RW Claude Giroux

LD Jake Sanderson

RD Nick Jensen

G Linus Ullmark

LW Matthew Knies

C Auston Matthews

RW Mitchell Marner

LD Morgan Rielly

RD Philippe Myers

G Anthony Stolarz

Points: T. Stutzle (79)

Goals: B. Tkachuk (29)

Assists: T. Stutzle (55)

GAA: L. Ullmark (2.72)

Points: M. Marner (102)

Goals: W. Nylander (45)

Assists: M. Marner (75)

GAA: A. Stolarz (2.14)

Coaches:

Ottawa Senators: Travis Green (1st season)

Toronto Maple Leafs: Craig Berube (1st season)