Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Odds, Picks and Preview -- 10/16/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue:  Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Where to watch: ESPN+

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Maple Leafs -220, Senators +180
BetMGM: Maple Leafs -238, Senators +190
Caesars: Maple Leafs -230, Senators +190

Season record
Senators: 1-0-0, 2 points
Maple Leafs: 1-1-0, 2 points

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Senators - Maple Leafs preview and analysis

Recent form
Senators: won 3-2 vs. Maple Leafs on Thursday
Maple Leafs: won 2-1 vs. Canadiens on Wednesday; played Ottawa in back-to-back

We are not in the part of the world yet where the Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs face any other teams but those in Canada.

Case in point: The two will conclude their home-and-home Saturday in the artist formerly known as the Air Canada Centre with the Senators looking to complete the rare sweep of Toronto.

The Leafs have played a good amount of hockey to start the season, but the excitement factor hasn’t quite been there primarily due to Auston Matthews missing the start of the season. The reigning Rocket Richard winner is set to miss this game, but is expected to make his season debut Monday at home against the New York Rangers.

But it’s going to be an adjustment for Toronto as the season goes on, as was the case of Thursday’s game. The Leafs lost 3-2 after falling behind three goals in the first period. Chris Tierney opened the scoring, but Tyler Ennis (power play) and Alex Formenton scored 1:01 apart to end the period.

Toronto was coming off a 2-1 win Wednesday against the Montreal Canadiens in its season opener.

The Leafs peppered Anton Forsberg with 48 shots. Normally the backup to Matt Murray (illness), the Sens got a stellar 46-save performance from Forsberg at Canadian Tire Centre. Think about the fact that it took two power-play goals in the third period from Jason Spezza and William Nylander to finally break through Forsberg.

Murray was placed on injured reserve on Friday due to a non-COVID related illness, and Forsberg will get the start at puck drop.

It’s October, but look for the Senators to be a team to watch as far as young talent goes. Now with Brady Tkachuk locked up for the next seven years, let’s see if Ottawa keeps the core together beyond this year. They are a team, as Eugene Melnyk would say.

Look for Jack Campbell to get the start for Toronto after getting the night off Thursday.


Now that it’s Campbell’s net and it being in Toronto, expect this version of the Battle of Ontario to finish differently from Thursday. The Leafs will bounce back and show the young Senators that there’s still time to grow. Leafs win 3-1

Betting trends

Ottawa is 10-21 in the last three seasons off a home win.

Toronto is 41-26 the last three seasons after playing a road game.

Projected lines


Tim Stutzle -- Josh Norris -- Drake Batherson

Nick Paul -- Shane Pinto -- Connor Brown

Alex Formenton -- Chris Tierney -- Tyler Ennis

Zach Sanford -- Logan Shaw -- Parker Kelly

Thomas Chabot -- Artem Zub

Victor Mete -- Nikita Zaitsev

Nick Holden -- Josh Brown

Anton Forsberg

Filip Gustavsson

Injuries: Colin White (shoulder), Matt Murray (illness)

Maple Leafs:

Nick Ritchie -- John Tavares -- Mitch Marner

Michael Bunting -- Alexander Kerfoot -- William Nylander

Pierre Engvall -- David Kampf -- Ondrej Kase

Mike Amadio -- Jason Spezza -- Wayne Simmonds

Morgan Rielly -- T.J. Brodie

Jake Muzzin -- Justin Holl

Rasmus Sandin -- Travis Dermott

Jack Campbell

Petr Mrazek

Injuries: Auston Matthews (wrist), Ilya Mikheyev (hand)

Statistical leaders

Points: Tyler Ennis -- 2
Goals: Three tied -- 1
Assists: Three tied -- 1
TOI: Thomas Chabot -- 26:24
Goalie: Anton Forsberg -- 1-0-0, 2.00 GAA, .958 save percentage

Maple Leafs:
Points: William Nylander -- 3
Goals: William Nylander -- 2
Assists: Morgan Rielly -- 2
TOI: Morgan Rielly -- 23:11
Goalie: Jack Campbell -- 1-0-0, 0.76 GAA, .976 save percentage

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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