by Chuck Sommers
Saturday, Nov 12, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
Where to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, NHL Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Senators -125, Flyers +105
FanDuel: Senators -128, Flyers +106
BetMGM: Senators -120, Flyers +100
Caesars: Senators -130, Flyers +110
Season record
Senators: 4-8-1 (9 points)
Flyers: 7-4-2 (16 points)
What an electric start to the NHL season. So much parity, so many good teams through the first 10-plus games, you have every right to be excited! Of course the Vegas Golden Knights and Boston Bruins are heading the fun charge here as the top two teams in the league, because of course they are. But never count out the Avalanche, you know they're always going to be hanging around and will be eating worlds once they get everyone healthy. But this is a good time to be playing these hockey games, as well. Look no further than our own Vegas Writer off to a 14-11-0 start over the first 30 days of the NHL season. There's also ASA, Inc. posting a 10-5-1 mark through the first month. You know you can trust our champion handicappers to get you across the finish line with your NHL bets. Check out our Best Bets page at bigal.com to see what we're throwing down!
Senators - Flyers preview, prediction and analysis
Recent results
Senators: lost seven straight (0-6-1); lost 4-3 (OT) at Devils on Thursday
Flyers: lost 5-2 at Blue Jackets on Thursday
The prodigal son returns to Philadelphia where he played 1,000 games and captained the Flyers to near glory. Claude Giroux will play his first game against the Flyers on Saturday when the Ottawa Senators visit Wells Fargo Center for an afternoon matinee.
The prodigal son returns to Philadelphia where he played 1,000 games and captained the Flyers to near glory. Claude Giroux will play his first game against the Flyers on Saturday when the Ottawa Senators visit Wells Fargo Center for an afternoon matinee.
This is the second time in the last week that the Senators and Flyers are facing off. The surprising Flyers won that game 2-1 in Ottawa and Philadelphia followed that up with a 5-1 win at home against the St. Louis Blues … only to lose 5-2 in Columbus in John Tortorella’s return to Ohio.
Apparently this angered Tortorella so much that he didn’t speak to the media after the game and led to assistant coach Brad Shaw having to talk to reporters. Shaw had no idea what happened to Tortorella. Might have just had to go to the bathroom, or something, after watching Carter Hart get blitzed by the Blue Jackets.
"I thought our checking was pretty good," Shaw said. "We mismanaged the pucks a few times and they took advantage."
Bravo, Brad. You might be cut out for this job yet.
But seriously, it’s crazy to see the Flyers play this well and still hang around in early November. Sure, this still might not last and this group is still not good enough to win deep into the season, but the Flyers are at least keeping things interesting while the Eagles are undefeated and the Phillies are reeling after losing the World Series. I promise, somehow, those are related.
But all eyes will be on Giroux, the former Philly captain who has found himself right at home with his hometown Senators. Sure, Ottawa is 4-8-1 and is coming off a 4-3 overtime loss to the New Jersey Devils on Thursday, but the Senators are hanging around with that young talent and star power. Giroux is having one of the better starts to his career so far with 12 points in 13 games, including 7 goals. If he keeps up this point-per-game pace, Giroux might eventually hit 1,000 points. Giroux will carry a 7-game point streak (5 goals, 3 assists) into Philly, where this seems like the ultimate win for them. But with the Sens coming off that heartbreaking loss to the red-hot Devils, this seems like a good night for Cam Talbot or Anton Forsberg to make something happen.
"I think we earned that one, but they found a way," Ottawa forward Shane Pinto said, who scored two goals in that loss. "It was a very cool moment, a cool atmosphere, but I wish we could have won."
Prediction
Narrative is the greatest thing in the world. Giroux scoring at least a point in his return to Philly would be the greatest story ever told in a Flyers game. Let it be, narrative. Make it happen. Senators win 4-3
Betting trends
Senators are 1-16 the last three years in November.
Senators are 8-17 the last three years off two straight overs.
Senators are 0-8 the last three years after two straight games where both teams scored 3 goals or more.
Flyers are 29-55 the last three years following a division game.
Flyers are 25-46 the last three years after allowing 4 goals or more the last game.
Projected lines
Senators:
Brady Tkachuk -- Tim Stutzle -- Claude Giroux
Alex DeBrincat -- Derick Brassard -- Drake Batherson
Tyler Motte -- Shane Pinto -- Mathieu Joseph
Parker Kelly -- Mark Kastelic -- Austin Watson
Thomas Chabot -- Jacob Bernard-Docker
Jake Sanderson -- Travis Hamonic
Erik Brannstrom -- Nick Holden
Cam Talbot
Brady Tkachuk -- Tim Stutzle -- Claude Giroux
Alex DeBrincat -- Derick Brassard -- Drake Batherson
Tyler Motte -- Shane Pinto -- Mathieu Joseph
Parker Kelly -- Mark Kastelic -- Austin Watson
Thomas Chabot -- Jacob Bernard-Docker
Jake Sanderson -- Travis Hamonic
Erik Brannstrom -- Nick Holden
Cam Talbot
Flyers:
Owen Tippett -- Kevin Hayes -- Travis Konecny
Joel Farabee -- Scott Laughton -- Wade Allison
Lukas Sedlak -- Noah Cates -- Zack MacEwen
Nicolas Deslauriers -- Morgan Frost -- Tanner Laczynski
Ivan Provorov -- Tony DeAngelo
Travis Sanheim -- Justin Braun
Nick Seeler -- Rasmus Ristolainen
Carter Hart
Owen Tippett -- Kevin Hayes -- Travis Konecny
Joel Farabee -- Scott Laughton -- Wade Allison
Lukas Sedlak -- Noah Cates -- Zack MacEwen
Nicolas Deslauriers -- Morgan Frost -- Tanner Laczynski
Ivan Provorov -- Tony DeAngelo
Travis Sanheim -- Justin Braun
Nick Seeler -- Rasmus Ristolainen
Carter Hart
Statistical leaders
Senators:
Points: Brady Tkachuk -- 16
Goals: Shane Pinto -- 8
Assists: Brady Tkachuk -- 10
Goalie: Anton Forsberg -- 3-6-1, 3.60 GAA, .899 SV%
Flyers:
Points: Travis Konecny -- 15
Goals: Travis Konecny -- 5
Assists: Travis Konecny -- 10
Goalie: Carter Hart -- 6-1-2, 2.09 GAA, .941 SV%
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
