by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Dec 01, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Where to watch: MSG, TSN5, RDS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Rangers -175, Senators +150
FanDuel: Rangers -178, Senators +146
BetMGM: Rangers -175, Senators +145
Caesars: Rangers -178, Senators +150
Season record
Senators: 8-13-1
Rangers: 11-9-4
Two months into the NHL season, and man, what action we’ve had. So much parity, so many good teams through the first 10-plus games, you have every right to be excited! It’s still a three-team race between Vegas, Boston and New Jersey. But this is a good time to be playing these hockey games, as well. Look no further than our own Doc's Sports on a 14-7-0 run over the first 30 days of the NHL season. There's also ASA, Inc. posting a 12-5-1 mark through the first month. You know you can trust our champion handicappers to get you across the finish line with your NHL bets. Check out our Best Bets page at bigal.com to see what we're throwing down!
Senators - Rangers preview, prediction and analysis
Recent results
The Rangers won 3-1 in the first meeting of a home-and-home on Wednesday.
Preview
Senators analysis
Remember when the Ottawa Senators had the right thing going with all of the moves they made in the offseason? That certainly hasn’t translated to the ice to this point. Now 4-5-1 in their last 10, the Senators are plummeting toward the bottom of the standings and are only one point clear of the Columbus Blue Jackets. The good news: Ottawa invested in goal scoring in the offseason, primarily with Alex DeBrincat. They’re averaging 3.05 goals per game, which isn’t the best but it’s far and away better than what it used to be. The bad news? Ottawa has given up 3.36 goals per game and that hasn’t translated to wins. Cam Talbot has been great since getting into the lineup, but you can see why Ottawa is in the market for a defenseman.
Brady Tkachuk is having a great year at 23 years old. The captain has 25 points in 23 games with a team-leading 16 assists. Right behind him is Tim Stutzle at 22 points in 22 games for the 21-year-old. They have young talent, and it absolutely shows. Shane Pinto, for example, scored his ninth goal of the year. That’s good. The bad? It was Ottawa’s only goal in the 3-1 loss to the Rangers. The fact they couldn’t score on Jaroslav Halak after the awful season he had speaks volumes as to where Ottawa is right now, and the seat continues to get hotter for coach D.J. Smith.
"Give the Rangers credit, they're a good hockey team too," Talbot said. "They were just able to find ways with some of those point shots to squeeze them through on redirects. Other than that, I thought it was a pretty even game."
Rangers analysis
It’s been a fall-from-grace situation for the Rangers to this point. Just 26 points on the year, out of the gates slowly, there’s just no grace period for New York to rebound and get something going the other way. Then again, it is custom of Gerard Gallant-coached teams to have a great first year under him and then things go haywire quickly.
The usual suspects are having great years, however. Mika Zibanejad has a team-high 11 goals in 24 games. Adam Fox is making a strong, early case for another Norris Trophy with 25 points in 24 games. Artemi Panarin is also on a roll with 25 points in 24 games, making another MVP case.
The biggest problem has been in goal, and it has nothing to do with Igor Shesterkin’s totality. The Rangers just haven’t gotten what they need from Jaroslav Halak with one win in a handful of starts. He just won his first game last time out against the Senators, now just 1-5-1 on the year. He hasn’t been able to save many shots and it’s put a huge load on Shesterkin, the reigning Vezina Trophy winner.
"It's great for our team, but it's also great for him to get that first win after playing the way he played," Gallant said. "He was outstanding. He made some key saves at key times for us and gave us a chance to win tonight."
That needs to continue for the Rangers to be considered a contender going forward. Shesterkin will do his best, but if the team has to rally for numerous goals and playing shoddy defense in front of the backup, Shesterkin just needs one bad game to flip on someone.
Prediction
If they couldn’t score on Halak, they’re not scoring on Shesterkin. Rangers win 4-1
Betting trends
Senators are 20-22 on the road when the total is 6 or more the last 2 seasons.
Senators are 5-1 after 6 straight unders the last 3 seasons.
Rangers are 17-3 at home after a win by 2 goals or more the last 2 seasons.
Projected lines
Senators:
Brady Tkachuk -- Tim Stutzle -- Claude Giroux
Alex DeBrincat -- Shane Pinto -- Drake Batherson
Tyler Motte -- Derick Brassard -- Mathieu Joseph
Parker Kelly -- Mark Kastelic -- Austin Watson
Thomas Chabot -- Artem Zub
Jake Sanderson -- Travis Hamonic
Erik Brannstrom -- Nick Holden
Cam Talbot
Rangers:
Chris Kreider -- Mika Zibanejad -- Jimmy Vesey
Artemi Panarin -- Filip Chytil -- Kaapo Kakko
Alexis Lafreniere -- Vincent Trocheck -- Vitali Kravtsov
Sammy Blais -- Barclay Goodrow -- Julien Gauthier
Ryan Lindgren -- Adam Fox
K'Andre Miller -- Braden Schneider
Zac Jones -- Jacob Trouba
Jaroslav Halak
Igor Shesterkin
Statistical leaders
Senators:
Points: Brady Tkachuk – 25
Goals: Three tied – 9
Assists: Brady Tkachuk – 16
Goalie: Cam Talbot – 3-6-0, 2.57 GAA, .918 SV%
Rangers:
Points: Three tied – 25
Goals: Two tied – 11
Assists: Two tied – 19
Goalie: Igor Shesterkin – 10-4-3, 2.58 GAA, .913 SV%
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
