Game Time: 8:00 PM ET, Saturday, March 5th, 2022 

Venue:  FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tennessee

Where to Watch:  NBA League Pass

DraftKings:  Spread:  NL

Fanduel:  Spread:  NL

Vegas Insider:  Spread: Memphis -15.5

Magic: 15-48, 15th place Eastern Conference

Grizzlies: 43-21, 3rd place Western Conference

A non-conference matchup between the Worst of the East, if not the league, and one of the best of the West.  Orlando can’t keep a secret very well…. They have built their roster to lose.  The entire job of the front office over the last 2 seasons was to build an entire roster of very young NBA projects.  They are loaded with high NBA draft picks of their own… high draft picks of other teams… and high draft picks that bombed out and are being given a second or third chance here.  A team like that is bound to spend way more time developing players than winning games.  That is exactly the point.  The front office DOES NOT WANT wins.  Orlando’s front office wants the top pick in this NBA draft and a clearer picture of which of these young players they will keep. PF Wendell Carter Jr and PF Jonathan Issac both were taken in the top 8 picks of their respective drafts and the team will have to decide who is the future.  SG Jalen Suggs, SG R.J. Hampton are both young first round picks playing alongside veteran SG Gary Harris… they can’t all stay.  PG Cole Anthony was the 15th pick in 2020 and he is competing for his starting job against PG Markelle Fultz the former #1 overall pick of the draft that may be good if he ever gets healthy… It is dizzying!  They have built a roster without clear NBA starters… or any NBA role players to make up the bench… It’s all development and losing… which leads to the only topic of discussion in the Orlando front office that ever comes up: “Have you seen the recent NBA mock drafts?... what do you think?”  The Magic aren’t a team I would ever put money on unless they get a golden point spread… one so large that even the Three Stooges could cover it.  The Grizzlies are a team that I would put money on.  They go on long win streaks and they score a healthy amount.  They are led by the sudden arrival of PG Ja Morant to the MVP and “face of the league” conversations… Ja is great and his recent 54 point game caused me to get on the Grizzlies bandwagon big time.  Then last night the Boston Celtics picked the Grizzlies apart.  It is important to remember that the Grizzlies are Finals contenders… but also a decidedly young team with a young leader.  The Grizzlies can get caught in the moment by better teamwork… which is exactly what the Celtics did to them at TD Garden. Now the Orlando Magic are not in any way playing in the same league as the Celtics and the Grizzlies won’t falter to them under any circumstances.  The only question is what is the best betting opportunity.

The Orlando Magic have won 3 of their last 10 games.  A surprisingly good week for the Magic… it helps that the three wins were to the Portland Trail Blazers, the Houston Rockets, and the Indiana Pacers… those were all fair matches against rudderless franchises.  The Magic are extra bad because while they lose A LOT they also don’t cover the spread much.  During the ten games they went 3-7 ATS… and each ATS win was an actual win against a bad team.  Meaning that when they play quality teams they not only lose, they lose big.  The Magic also have an unusually large injury list.  It’s as if the front office is actively holding guys back for any reason to help the losing and protect trade assets… oh!  That is what it is.  In their last game the Magic took the Indiana Pacers to overtime… then promptly lost by 8 points!  Losing against a 2 point spread to a bad team.  The spread against the Grizzlies will be much bigger… but how much bigger is all you have to ask yourself.  The Magic players will try.  PF Wendell Carter Jr has improved over his 10 ppg of his rookie season by 4 points… SF and rookie Franz Wagner is netting 15.7 ppg and 4.6 rpg… He’s no Josh Giddey but he will be an NBA player. And finally at long last SG Jalen Suggs is coming alive… even though he should be somewhere where he would have a shot at playing point guard… his 6’4 size leaves him vulnerable to bigger SG’s and he is missing valuable development time at the position he should be at to begin with.

The Memphis Grizzlies have won 8 of their last ten games. They have a real shot to take the Western Conference if the Suns suffer while CP3 is and Devin Brooks are out and the Warriors keep losing while PF Draymond Green is out.  The Grizzlies went 7-3 ATS during that stretch. 6’11 PF Jaren Jackson Jr is who he is.  In season 5 Jaren is 16.5 ppg, 6 rpg, 2.2 blks, 1 ast.  He does a little of a lot and scores some.  The team is hoping for more points, but Jaren’s defense is worth letting Ja have all the points.   Plus Desmond Bane is the surprise winner of SG Dillon Brooks getting injured every season.  Desmond is pulling down 17.5 ppg, after being drafted 30th by Boston in the 2020 draft… it’s quite the arrival!  It also signals that Dillon Brooks should pack his bags… when Dillon does finally come back he is best used as trade bait with a pick attached.  The starting job belongs to Desmond.  

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Orlando is 15-48 on the season, but 28-35 ATS.  They have logged 33 Overs, 29 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 8-26 in road games.

Memphis is 43-21 on the season, but 42-22 ATS.  They have notched 34 Overs, 29 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 21-10 in home games.

The Orlando Magic are 28th in scoring with 104 ppg, 24th in rebounds with 43.6 per game, and 27th in AST/TO ratio with 1.6. On defense they rank 21st while allowing 112 ppg to opponents.

The Memphis Grizzlies are 3rd in scoring with 113.8 ppg, 1st in rebounds with 49.2 per game, and 5th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9. They rank 15th on defense while allowing 109.2 ppg to opponents.

Our prediction for Saturday, March 5th is….  Grizzlies 128 - Magic 103

The Grizzlies will blow out the Magic as they have done against every bad team they have faced, after a loss, all year.  Bet the Grizzlies… This is the only time I would say to ignore the double digit spread. Although a 15.5 point spread is very silly?... Safe bet is to skip the bet if you don't want to lay that many points.  

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Memphis is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Memphis is 49-28 ATS after a non-conference game the last 3 seasons.
Orlando has 20 Overs and 7 Unders against a southwest division opponent the last 3 seasons.

Magic: PF Wendell Carter Jr (ill) Quest ** PF Jonathan Isaac (knee) Out indefinitely ** PG Markelle Fultz (knee) Out ** C Bol Bol (foot) Out ** Mo Wagner (ribs) Out 

Grizzlies: SG Dillon Brooks (ankle) Out 

Magic: SF Franz Wagner, PF Chuma Okeke, C Mo Bamba, SG Jalen Suggs, PG Cole Anthony

Grizzlies: SF Ziaira William, PF Jaren Jackson Jr, C Steven Adams, PG Ja Morant, SG Desmond Bane

Magic

Points: Cole Anthony 17.4

Assists: 5.8

Rebounds: Wendell Carter Jr 10.4

Steals: Chuma Okeke 1.5

Blocks: Mo Bamba 1.8

Grizzlies

Points: Ja Morant 27.8

Assists: Ja Morant 6.6

Rebounds: Steven Adams 9.9

Steals: De’Anthony 1.6

Blocks: Jaren Jackson Jr 2.2

Magic: Jamahl Mosley

Grizzlies: Taylor Jenkins