by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Nov 24, 2021
Game time: 9:30 a.m. ET
Venue: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Oregon -6.5
BetMGM: Oregon -7
Caesars: Oregon -7
Season record
Oregon State: 7-4 (5-3 Pac-12)
No. 11 Oregon: 9-2 (6-2 Pac-12)
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Oregon State - Oregon preview and analysis
Last week
Oregon State: won 24-10 vs. Arizona State
Oregon: lost 38-7 at No. 19 Utah
It's been a long time since this rivalry had some significant meaning.
The Oregon Ducks and Oregon State Beavers will meet with the winner determining who wins the Pac-12 North and gets a spot in the conference title game.
It's simple for Oregon: Win, and the Ducks are in with a rematch against the Utah Utes on the horizon. For the Beavers, they need a win and the Washington Huskies need to pull off the upset over the Washington State Cougars in the Apple Cup in order to hold the three-team tiebreaker.
What a wild turn of events the last week has provided in the state of Oregon.
The Ducks had their five-game winning streak end in emphatic fashion against the Utes, but that loss did more than just put their conference title game hopes in flames. Oregon dropped eight spots in the latest College Football Playoff ranking and are now well out of favor for a spot in the final four.
Oregon lost 38-7 to the surging Utes, who won seven of eight in conference play to cement their spot in the title game. If Oregon wants a chance at revenge, it needs to have a better effort from quarterback Anthony Brown (17 of 35, 231 yards, 1 TD).
Everybody's upset and disappointed like we should be," Ducks coach Mario Cristobal said. "It should burn. It should hurt a ton. These guys are competitors and it's hard because we've taken a lot of pride in being resilient and being able to bounce back from adversity."
The Ducks' offense has been hit-or-miss over the past month and last week reached its impasse. Oregon had 294 yards of total offense, and Utah's defense neutralized Brown while taking out the Oregon running game. Byron Cardwell had only 35 yards on seven carries, while Travis Dye was limited to six carries for 29 yards.
"It hurts because there were a lot of expectations," Brown said. "The potential was there, and we didn't maximize. We didn't grab the opportunity that was right in front of us."
But there's reason to believe Oregon will bounce back. The Ducks have won 19 straight at Autzen Stadium and 15 straight conference wins at home. That stadium is as dangerous a place to play as any in the country. Hence why the Ducks are laying a touchdown in this matchup, but the line has fluctuated a half point over the past few days.
But the Beavers still have life despite a horrendous November. Oregon State lost road games to conference basement dwellars California and Colorado before bouncing back to win home games against Stanford and Arizona State.
Oregon State has only one road conference win under its belt. a 45-27 win against USC that ended Clay Helton's run as head coach.
But they've taken care of business at home. Oregon State defeated the Arizona State Sun Devils 24-10 last week behind 150 yards on the ground from B.J. Baylor and 57 yards and a touchdown from Jack Colletto.
Prediction
Oregon State won last year's game in a high-scoring barnburner, one of six overs out of the last 10 (6-3-1). This comes down to the quarterbacks and who you trust in a big-time game. It stays close throughout with Oregon State pressuring the upset, but the Ducks eventually get the win and move on to Allegiant Stadium. Oregon by 3
Betting trends
Oregon State is 9-2 ATS off an under.
Oregon State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven when allowing 100 rushing yards or less the last game.
Oregon is 19-36 ATS in its last 55 after a road loss.
Statistical leaders
Oregon State:
Passing: Chance Nolan -- 2,106 yards, 17 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: B.J. Baylor -- 1,200 yards, 12 TD
Receiving: Trevon Bradford -- 527 yards, 4 TD
Oregon:
Passing: Anthony Brown -- 2,261 yards, 13 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Travis Dye -- 937 yards, 12 TD
Receiving: Devon Williams -- 430 yards, 3 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
