by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Dec 28, 2023
Game Time: 2:00 pm ET, Friday, December 29, 2023
Venue: Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: OR State +6.5, Notre Dame -6.5; Over/Under: 41.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: OR State +6, Notre Dame -6; Over/Under: 41.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: OR State +6.5, Notre Dame -6.5; Over/Under: 41.5 points
Season Record
Oregon State Beavers: 8-4 (5-4) (4th place, Pac-12)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 9-3 (0-0) (FBS Independent)
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Oregon State Beavers: lost their last game on the road against the Oregon Ducks 31-7.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: won their last game on the road against the Stanford Cardinal 56-23.
Oregon State Beavers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Preview and Analysis
Oregon State is entering this game with an 8-4 record overall and they have a 5-4 record in their conference games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 3-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against Oregon 31-7. DJ Uiagalelei was the starting QB and he completed 19/35 passes for 220 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Damien Martinez led the team in rushing yards with 38. Anthony Gould led the receivers with 85 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Easton Mascarenas led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack in that one. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Notre Dame is entering this game with a 9-3 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 3-2 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Stanford 56-23. Sam Hartman was the starting QB and he completed 8/14 passes for 140 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Audric Estime led the team in rushing yards with 238 and 4 TDs. Jordan Faison led the receivers with 66 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. Cam Hart led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Javontae Jean-Baptiste led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Jack Kiser came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Oregon State vs Notre Dame Prediction
The current betting odds have Notre Dame listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this Sun Bowl game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Notre Dame has looked really good in their games this season with their 9-3 record overall and most of their losses were against some of the best teams in the country. They didn't quite have the season they were hoping for as they missed out on the college football playoffs but they don't play in a conference either so they will treat this bowl game very seriously. Meanwhile, Oregon State has also looked great this season with their 8-4 record overall but they were also hoping to go to the Pac-12 Championship which is something that they fell short of. They are also in a difficult situation now with their head coach leaving for another school and their starting QB entering the transfer portal along with a few other key players. Oregon State has also been left for dead in the Pac-12 with Washington State but the two are going to remain in the conference so next season will be more like a rebuilding year and it will be really tough to extract a lot of good talent. Oregon State has no motivation to win this game while Notre Dame also has key players entering the transfer portal but they are also in a much better position with their depth and have the talent to win this game convincingly still. The best way to place a bet here is on Notre Dame to cover the spread in this game.
Oregon State Notre Dame Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, December 29, 2023 (2:00 pm ET start time) is Notre Dame 31 Oregon State 14.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Oregon State Beavers: 9-15 ATS in a bowl game. 4-7 ATS after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. 23-15 OVER in all games. 8-3 OVER as a favorite. 14-6 OVER off 1 or more straight overs. 7-1 OVER after a cover as a double digit favorite.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 24-14 ATS in all games. 10-1 ATS when the total is 42 or less. 17-7 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. 12-4 OVER off 1 or more consecutive unders. 19-9 OVER off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more. 15-7 OVER after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers.
Key Injuries
Oregon State Beavers: D. Martinez (RB) Doub Fri - Suspension. T. Reddicks (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. M. Tongue (LB) out for season - Leg.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: K. Smith (WR) Prob Fri - Shoulder. C. Salerno (P) Prob Fri - Leg. D. Colzie (WR) Prob Fri - Knee. S. Hartman (QB) Out Fri - Personal. M. Evans (TE) out for season - Knee. K. Bauman (TE) out for season - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“Hats off to our team man, we battled all the way through. It's tough. At the end of the day man we love this game of football, this is the stuff that's tough, losses like this.” - DJ Uiagalelei after their loss against Oregon in their last game of the college football regular season.
“What a tough, physical, special football player. Obviously he’ll have a decision to make after the season on what he’s going to do. He is a special talent that has given Notre Dame everything he’s had for the past three seasons.” - Marcus Freeman after his team’s win against Stanford in their last game of the college football regular season.
Starting Lineups
Oregon State Beavers
WR Valsin III, Jimmy
WR Bolden, Silas
WR Irish, Jesiah
TE Terry II, Jermaine
QB Gulbranson, Ben
RB Fenwick, Deshaun
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
WR Greathouse, Jaden
WR Thomas, Jayden
WR Faison, Jordan
TE Raridon, Eli
QB Angeli, Steve
RB Love, Jeremiyah
Statistical Leaders
Oregon State Beavers
Passing: D. Uiagalelei (2638)
Rushing: D. Martinez (1185)
Receiving: A. Gould (718)
Touchdowns: D. Martinez (9)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Passing: S. Hartman (2689)
Rushing: A. Estime (1341)
Receiving: C. Tyree (484)
Touchdowns: A. Estime (18)
Coaches:
Oregon State Beavers: Kefense Hynson (Interim)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Marcus Freeman (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
