by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Nov 05, 2021
Game time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Folsom Field, Boulder, CO
Where to watch: Pac-12 Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Oregon State -11.5
BetMGM: Oregon State -11.5
Caesars: Oregon State -11.5
Season record
Oregon State: 5-3 (3-2 Pac-12)
Colorado: 2-6 (1-4 Pac-12)
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Oregon State - Colorado game preview and analysis
Last week
Oregon State: lost 39-25 at Cal
Colorado: lost 52-29 at Oregon
The Oregon State Beavers will try to win their sixth game of the season and clinch bowl eligibility when they face the Colorado Buffaloes on Saturday in Boulder.
The Beavers have dropped two of three coming into this week, losing by two touchdowns to the California Golden Bears last week, but can get that eluded sixth win this weekend against a Colorado team that continues to defy low expectations every week.
Oregon State’s loss to Cal wasn’t an ideal scenario coming off an 8-point upset win at home against the surging Utah Utes the week prior. The Cal offense had one of its best games of the season with 517 total yards, 262 through the air with three touchdowns from Chase Garbers, for what seemed like a comfortable win for the Bears.
Chance Nolan was solid in every department from the turnovers. He threw for 243 yards and two touchdowns for the Beavers, but the two interceptions proved costly. Oregon State was held to just 377 total yards and turned it over three times while being outgained by just under eight minutes in time of possession.
But at least the Beavers find themselves going against a Colorado team that has dropped four of five by scoring 59 points combined in those losses; they put up 34 in the win three weeks ago against winless Arizona, which tells you a lot.
Colorado is coming off a 23-point loss to Oregon that saw Ducks quarterback Anthony Brown put on a show for 307 yards and three touchdowns. CU quarterback Brendon Lewis also had a strong passing display with 224 yards and three touchdowns, but the difference was getting help in the run game. Colorado got only about 120 yards from the ground while Oregon had 568 total yards outside of Brown’s historic day.
The last time Colorado and Oregon State met up, it did not go well for the home team. The Buffs led 31-3 at halftime, then lost 41-34 in overtime. There’s a growing sense within this author that Colorado will not have such a lead big enough to squander it this week.
Prediction
Colorado has covered five of its last eight games as a home dog, but Oregon State is on a run of 13-6-1 ATS in conference games as of late. This matchup is important for Oregon State’s hopes of keeping pace in the Pac-12 North with the Civil War on the horizon. This has the makings of Oregon State winning by a couple touchdowns. Oregon State by 17
Betting trends
Oregon State is 5-1 in its last six ATS after a stretch of losing two of three.
Oregon State is 9-2 ATS the last three seasons following a straight up loss.
Colorado is 6-12 straight up as an underdog in its last 18, and 45-138 dating back to 1992.
Statistical leaders
Oregon State:
Passing: Chance Nolan -- 1,504 yards, 13 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: B.J. Baylor -- 872 yards, 10 TD
Receiving: Trevon Bradford -- 402 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Avery Roberts -- 90 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT
Colorado:
Passing: Brendon Lewis -- 1,016 yards, 7 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Jarek Broussard -- 359 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Brenden Rice -- 280 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Nate Landman -- 63 tackles
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
