Oregon Ducks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 01/01/2026

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Thursday, January 1, 2026

Venue:  Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Oregon -2.5, Texas Tech +2.5; Over/Under:  52.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Oregon -2, Texas Tech +2; Over/Under:  52.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Oregon -1.5, Texas Tech +1.5; Over/Under:  52.5 points

Oregon Ducks:  12-1 (8-1) (3rd place, Big Ten)

Texas Tech Red Raiders:  12-1 (8-1) (1st place, Big 12)

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Oregon Ducks:  won their last game at home against the James Madison Dukes 51-34.

Texas Tech Red Raiders:  won their last game at a neutral site against the BYU Cougars 34-7.

Oregon is entering this game with a 12-1 record overall and they have an 8-1 record in their conference games too. They are 7-1 in their home games, 5-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, and they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against James Madison 51-34. Dante Moore was the starting QB and he completed 19/27 passes for 313 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Jordon Davison led the team in rushing yards with 90. Malik Benson led the receivers with 119 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 1 TD. Aaron Flowers led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Ashton Porter led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Texas Tech is entering this game with a 12-1 record overall and they have an 8-1 record in their conference games too. They are 7-0 in their home games, 4-1 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against BYU 34-7. Behren Morton was the starting QB and he completed 20/33 passes for 215 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. J'Koby Williams led the team in rushing yards with 80. Reggie Virgil led the receivers with 86 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Jacob Rodriguez led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 9 assisted tackles while David Bailey and Anthony Holmes Jr. each led the defense in sacks with 1. Ben Roberts came away with the only 2 interceptions for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Oregon listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Oregon has looked great in their games this season with their 12-1 record overall and their 8-1 conference record which had them right near the top of the Big Ten. They haven't played in any neutral site games this season so this will be their first, playing in the Orange Bowl for the 2nd round of the CFP. Meanwhile, Texas Tech has looked great in their games this season with their 12-1 record overall and their 8-1 conference record which had them right at the top of the Big 12. They haven't played in any neutral site games this season either. Oregon is off a 51-34 win over James Madison in the last round and even though their defense gave up 34 points, a lot of that came in garbage time as they had a huge lead to start. Their only loss this season was at home against Indiana who is now the number 1 team in the nation. Texas Tech is off a 34-7 win over BYU in the Big 12 Championship and they have been rolling over teams all season, but they did play in a weaker conference than the Big Ten. That is going to hurt them in this game along with the bye they got for being a top 4 team as they have not played a game in weeks. They could have some rust to start this game, and that will be a big issue against Oregon who was humming a week ago. Oregon has been one of the best programs over the last few years under Dan Lanning, and they are not going to be stopped by a newcomer in Texas Tech. The best way to place a bet here is on Oregon to cover the spread in this game. 

Oregon Texas Tech Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Thursday, January 1, 2026 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Oregon 34 Texas Tech 24.

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Oregon Ducks: 26-14 ATS in all lined games. 24-13 ATS as a favorite. 9-4 ATS off a home win by 17 points or more. 11-6 ATS vs. good offensive  teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 14-8 UNDER after a win by 17 or more points. 22-15 UNDER as a favorite.

Texas Tech Red Raiders: 2-6 ATS against Big 10 conference opponents. 1-5 ATS in major bowl games (played in January). 3-6 ATS as a neutral field underdog of 7 points or less. 8-3 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 4-1 UNDER vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.

Oregon Ducks:  G. Wilson (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Riggs (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Davis (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Lowe (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Stewart (WR) Questionable - Knee. T. McNutt (CB) Questionable - Leg. K. Kasper (WR) Out - Undisclosed. M. Hughes (RB) Out - Redshirt. B. Boulton (OG) Out - Undisclosed.

Texas Tech Red Raiders:  M. Horn (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. West (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. W. Hammond (QB) Out - Knee. S. Gill-Howard (DL) Out - Leg. D. Singleton (DL) Out - Undisclosed. Q. Joyner (RB) Out - Knee. M. Dingle Jr. (S) Out - Leg.

"I thought we played a really good first half in some ways, gave up a couple explosive plays. Defensively in the second half, I don't think we played at all close to our standard. Credit to JMU for figuring some stuff out at halftime, and not credit to us for not being able to sustain and play the way we need to be able to play down the stretch.” - Dan Lanning after his team’s win against JMU in the 1st round of the CFP.

"This has been the goal of this program the entire season – to win the Big 12 title and play in the College Football Playoff. To be able to achieve that goal and play in such as prestigious event like the Orange Bowl is an added chapter to the story this team continues to write. We're thankful to get a first-round bye to be able rest our team and get ready for either a very talented Oregon or James Madison team." - Joey McGuire on his team playing Oregon in the Orange Bowl.

WR Moore, Dakorien

WR Benson, Malik

WR Bryant Jr., Gary

TE Sadiq, Kenyon

QB Moore, Dante

RB Whittington, Noah

WR Virgil, Reggie

WR Douglas, Caleb

WR Eakin, Coy

TE Carter Jr., Terrance

QB Morton, Behren

RB Dickey, Cameron

Passing: Dante Moore (3,046)

Rushing: Noah Whittington (798)

Receiving: Malik Benson (645)

Touchdowns: Jordon Davison (13)

Passing: Behren Morton (2,643)

Rushing: Cameron Dickey (1,095)

Receiving: Caleb Douglas (846)

Touchdowns: Cameron Dickey (16)

Coaches:

Oregon Ducks: Dan Lanning (4th season)

Texas Tech Red Raiders: Joey McGuire (4th season)