Ole Miss Rebels vs. Kentucky Wildcats Prediction & Game Preview - 3/1/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Tuesday, Mar 01, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY
Where to watch: ESPN

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Kentucky -16.5
BetMGM: Kentucky -16.5
Caesars: Kentucky -17

Season record
Ole Miss: 13-16 (4-12 SEC)
No. 7 Kentucky: 23-6 (12-4 SEC)

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Ole Miss - Kentucky preview and analysis


Ole Miss analysis


The Ole Miss Rebels I've currently hit a rough patch. Then again, their rough patch has really been all season so it's not like anything has been missing from these events.

The Rebels lost again Saturday 76-66 to Texas A&M to fall to 4-12 in conference play this season, which is about as bad as one could imagine. I know I mentioned the other day about Marshall Henderson and how much of a pain he was, but man, this team might be a bigger eyesore than that guy. By the way, update on Henderson: He is an assistant coach at Independence Community College in Texas, which is absolutely hilarious.

Back to the team at hand, though, because by god we need to actually discuss how bad this team was. They shot 40 percent from the floor and only turned the ball over 12 times, but it was the fact Ole Miss fell behind 46-23 at halftime that makes us wonder why things are the way they are. Matthew Murrell led the way with 20 points on 6 of 10 shooting, but good luck trying to find help elsewhere on this roster.

Only one player, Tye Fagan, scored in double figures with 10 points on 4 of 7 shooting off the bench in 30 minutes of play. The other starters combined to shoot 7 of 22 because only one other player made more than one actual shot. I know they’re not the Georgia Bulldogs, but for the love of god I don’t think anyone wants to see this team play, either. It’s just bad all around and they should go be coached by Marshall Henderson because I want more chaos in the SEC.

At least Ole Miss beat Georgia by 17 points last week to ensure they are not the basement residers of this conference. Thank you for playing our game.

Kentucky analysis


After seeing all of that above, there is only so much punishment that I would actually put on the rebels heading into this game against the Kentucky Wildcats. Because I know for a fact that if Kentucky actually put in an ounce of effort in this game after the crazy hoopla that's been going on for the last few weeks, the rebels might get run out of the building. And may never play basketball again. Because their souls have been shattered by the uncertainty of what is to come by the future.

I mean what more is to say about Kentucky? They're clearly going to be one of the favorites in the conference tournament in a couple of weeks, they're likely going to be one of the favorites to win the whole thing at the end of March. It's just inevitable at this point. It feels like Thanos. It's inevitable.

Although has anyone else ever thought of John Calipari just wearing the Infinity gauntlet and saying he is inevitable because it just seems like that is the case? I would actually pay to see that. That'd be funny.

Nevertheless we actually need to talk about this basketball game. Because it is more than likely possible that the Wildcats are not going to be happy coming into this game. After losing 75- 73 on Saturday at Arkansas, Kentucky has lost two games out of four and apparently has taken its foot off the gas toward the end of the season. This is totally acceptable because we're not playing for a good conference standing seating whatever. We're talking about getting into the NCAA tournament and letting the chips fall where they may.

Oscar Tshiebwe did his thing yet again with 30 points and 18 rebounds. Yes, 18 rebounds for the guy who apparently has magnets for a basketball on his hands because all he does is just grab rebounds and shatter everyone's souls on the glass. TyTy Washington had 10 points on 3 of 12 shooting, and Sahvir Wheeler finished with 14 points.

I will never be one to count out what Kentucky can do when completely pissed off. And I don't think anyone else should either this might be a complete decimation at the hands of Big Blue.

Prediction


This should be domination at the hands of Kentucky. I don't see any way possible that the rebels even last remotely close in this game. If there's any real chance in the world that Kentucky loses his game, it's in some alternate universe where Kentucky is actually 2-30. Kentucky is a 17 point favorite for a reason, and while this should be just a simple easy victory, I am more so wondering if it's going to be over by halftime and that's the real bet here. Would Kentucky cover by 25 by halftime? That might be something I'd be willing to explore because there is a chance that they just take their foot off the gas toward the end of the game, but in the first half they can just run all over them. Ultimately I think Kentucky wins by like 20 points but take the first half two if you feel rebellious or something. Kentucky by 20

Betting trends


Ole Miss is 10-1 ATS as a road dog of 12.5 points or more.

The under is 305-276 when Kentucky is a favorite.

The under is 10-3 when Kentucky goes over the previous game.

Projected starting lineup


Ole Miss:
PG: Tye Fagan
SG: Austin Crowley
SF: Matthew Murrell
PF: Jaemyn Brakefield
C: Nysier Brooks

Kentucky:
PG: Sahvir Wheeler
SG: TyTy Washington Jr.
SF: Kellan Grady
PF: Keion Brooks Jr.
C: Oscar Tshiebwe

Statistical leaders


Ole Miss:
Points: Matthew Murrell -- 11.4
Rebounds: Nysier Brooks -- 7.7
Assists: Austin Crowley -- 2.4

Kentucky:
Points: Oscar Tshiebwe -- 16.9
Rebounds: Oscar Tshiebwe -- 15.3
Assists: Sahvir Wheeler -- 7.0

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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