Oklahoma Sooners vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Prediction & Game Preview -- 11/27/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Game time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
Where to watch: ABC

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Oklahoma State -4
BetMGM: Oklahoma State -4
Caesars: Oklahoma State -4

Season record
No. 10 Oklahoma: 10-1 (7-1 Big 12)
No. 7 Oklahoma State: 10-1 (7-1 Big 12)

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Oklahoma - Oklahoma State preview and analysis


Last week
Oklahoma: won 28-21 vs. Iowa State
Oklahoma State: won 23-0 at Texas Tech

There's a chance we get The Bedlam Series for two straight weeks. That all depends on if the Oklahoma Sooners, for one week, show they're not a fluke.

The Sooners will head to Stillwater for a top-10 showdown against the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who have already clinched a spot in the Big 12 championship game.

In reality, the Cowboys don't have much to play for outside of longshot College Football Playoff odds unless something goes wrong. Oklahoma State, by way of its win over the Baylor Bears back on Oct. 2, hold the tiebreaker, win or lose. If the Cowboys lose on Saturday, the rematch is set for the conference title matchup in AT&T Stadium.

If the Sooners lose and Baylor wins, it'll be a rematch of Baylor and OSU with a New Year's Six bowl spot up for grabs (or maybe an outside shot at the playoff. Who knows with this committee?)

Both clubs enter this week on different trajectories. The Pokes have won four straight since losing to the Iowa State Cyclones over a month ago, and all of those victories have come in dominant fashion (sure, the opponent helps in this situation). Oklahoma State has outscored its last four opponents 165-23 and has scored over 50 on two different occasions.

The Cowboys didn't need 50 against the Texas Tech Red Raiders last week but the Oklahoma State defense did pitch a shutout 23-0 in Lubbock, the first time the Raiders were shutout since 1997 (302 straight games). Oklahoma State, during this dominant run, has only given up one touchdown.

"I don't know what to say, what else to say about the defense," coach Mike Gundy said. "I'm just kind of running out of things to say about them on Saturdays. Hopefully, they can just stay the course."

Spencer Sanders had an inefficient day throwing the ball (19 of 37) but threw for 239 yards and a touchdown. But the day was about the defense holding Texas Tech to just 108 total yards and 10 first downs, while the Cowboys held the ball for almost 37 minutes.

While there has been much talk here over the last couple of months about how horrible Oklahoma has been and how they've skirted by in the top-10, rebounding from that loss against Baylor was well done.

Still not good enough.

The Sooners won 28-21 over Iowa State behind their own defense, but barely. Oklahoma was outgained 361-305 but still forced three turnovers while having the ball for almost 17 fewer minutes.  No matter if it's Caleb Williams or Spencer Rattler, there's no consistency in the offense for a Sooners program that has prided on quarterbacks like Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield.

History is on OU's side. The Sooners are 17-2 when they and Oklahoma State are ranked in the AP Top 25 and both meetings when they were in the top 10. The last time this happened, Oklahoma won 58-23 in 2015.

But history has a weird way of being funny.

Prediction


Oklahoma has gone 4-2 against the spread after starting 1-3, and the Sooners have covered five of the last six meetings. But you stick to something for so long you have to see it through. The Cowboys' defense, in front of the home crowd with a potential playoff spot on the horizon, will live up to the challenge and end the long nightmare that is the Sooners. Oklahoma State by 14

Betting trends


Oklahoma is 1-5 ATS off a win at home.

Oklahoma State is 14-9 ATS in its past 23 after a conference game.

Oklahoma State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine off a win by 10 or more on a conference opponent.

Statistical leaders


Oklahoma:
Passing: Spencer Rattler -- 1,483 yards, 11 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Kennedy Brooks -- 972 yards, 10 TD
Receiving: Marvin Mims -- 644 yards, 4 TD

Oklahoma State:
Passing: Spencer Sanders -- 1,997 yards, 15 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Jaylen Warren -- 1,078 yards, 10 TD
Receiving: Tay Martin -- 765 yards, 6 TD

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Oklahoma - Oklahoma State prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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