Oklahoma Sooners vs. Kansas State Wildcats Picks and Game Preview -- 10/02/2021

by Big Al Staff

Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET, October 2, 2021
Venue: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS
Where to watch: FOX

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Oklahoma -11; O/U 52.5; Oklahoma -450, Kansas State +340
BetMGM: Oklahoma -10.5; O/U 52.5; Oklahoma -417, Kansas State +325
Caesars: Oklahoma -10.5; O/U 52.5; Oklahoma -430, Kansas State +330

Season record
No. 6 Oklahoma: 4-0 (1-0 Big 12)
Kansas State: 3-1 (0-1 Big 12)

Ben Burns had a solid 3-2-1 week in what was an eventful and upset-filled weekend of college football. Ben is back for his Thursday thoughts on Virginia and Miami, but don’t make a move on it until you check in with him. Catch Ben’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.

Oklahoma - Kansas State preview and analysis


Recent form
Oklahoma: won 16-13 vs. West Virginia on Sept. 25
Kansas State: lost 31-20 at Oklahoma State on Sept. 25

So this is the week where we finally give up on the Oklahoma Sooners, right?

As in this is the week where the Sooners finally lose and everything crashes down in Norman. This is it, right?

*checks odds*

TEN-POINT FAVORITES? IN THIS ECONOMY?

I have yet to figure out why the Sooners are where they are. Not a single game has gone right for them. Not even that 76-0 win over Western Carolina should count because that's their only ego boost to this point.

And while we called the West Virginia Mountaineers with the points last week, I was more sad that the game did not end in a WVU upset. Oklahoma's time is coming, and we're sticking against the grain.

The Kansas State Wildcats are next up in a home game against the No. 6-ranked Sooners and God help us all if something doesn’t go to script on Saturday.

Kansas State comes into this week after its first loss of the season to the Oklahoma State Cowboys, but it was a well-played battle in Stillwater nonetheless. But if you're like many in America that are wanting the Sooners to falter, this may be the chance.

The Wildcats have pulled off the upset over Oklahoma the past two years. Both of those games saw K-State as three-touchdown underdogs. If there's ever been a time for a three-peat, it might be this week with a struggling Oklahoma team that is somehow in the top-10.

Yet despite looking like an underwhelming quarterback right now, Spencer Rattler leads the Big 12 with 254.3 YPG, as well as completions and completion percentage. Yet by the skin of their teeth, the Sooners are on a 12-game winning streak entering this week. Head coach Lincoln Riley is 15-2 in road games since becoming OU coach, and the Sooners have won 26 of their last 28 overall.

And yet here I am still thinking the Sooners should lose this game.

The Wildcats are a run-first team that has been able to put plenty of yards on the board through the ground, led by Deuce Vaughn averaging just under 100 yards per game. Kansas State's run defense has also been very good, keeping teams to 75.2 per game which is the 11th best in the country. I'm still a firm believer that if teams get Rattler is forced to win the game with his arm that the luck will run out eventually. This seems like the perfect case.

If quarterback Skylar Thompson is out for the third straight game due to injury, Will Howard or Jaren Lewis will start.

Prediction


We're riding this horse until we can't anymore. Kansas State is pulling off this upset. Oklahoma seriously needs to fail at some point. You're likely going to take Oklahoma because of this, and I don't blame you. Just realize, the day that it does finally happen, you'll know who put it in your heads. Kansas State by 6

Betting trends


Oklahoma is 1-3 against the spread as a favorite this season.

Kansas State is 5-2 ATS as a home dog and 8-10 straight up as an underdog.

Players to watch


Oklahoma: The Sooners have gotten a good balance from their running game between Kennedy Brooks and Eric Gray. Brooks, in particular, has three touchdowns on 5.8 yards per carry.

Kansas State: Khalid Duke is the Wildcats’ top pass rusher with two sacks this season.

Statistical leaders


Oklahoma:
Passing: Spencer Rattler -- 1,017 yards, 8 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Kennedy Brooks -- 227 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Marvin Mims -- 193 yards
Defense: Perrion Winfrey -- 3.5 sacks

Kansas State:
Passing: Will Howard -- 249 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Deuce Vaughn -- 393 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Phillip Brooks -- 170 yards
Defense: Cody Fletcher -- 26 tackles, 1 sack

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Oklahoma - Kansas State prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NCAA projections and previews.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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