by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Oct 24, 2022
Time: Noon ET
Venue: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA
Where to watch: FS1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Oklahoma -1.5
FanDuel: Oklahoma -1.5
BetMGM: Oklahoma -1.5
Caesars: Oklahoma -1.5
Season record
Oklahoma: 4-3 (1-3 Big 12)
Iowa State: 3-4 (0-4 Big 12)
We’re quickly approaching the fun time of the year where conference title games are made and upsets are the norm in college football. After minimal change in the top-25 polls this week, what in the world can we expect this time around? One thing you can be sure of is Kyle Hunter and his 22-9-0 mark in college football over the last month. Sean Murphy has also seen a profitable month at 28-15-0 over the last 30 days. What does the world have in store this time around with what should be another exciting week of college football? Follow our best bets page and make sure to be in tune with what our champion handicappers have to say this week!
Oklahoma - Iowa State preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Oklahoma: won 52-42 vs. No. 19 Kansas
Iowa State: lost 24-21 at No. 22 Texas
The Oklahoma Sooners are not back yet, and that will be proven on Saturday. The Sooners ended their three-game losing streak on Saturday with a 52-42 loss to the banged-up No. 19 Kansas Jayhawks a week ago in what should be viewed as a frowned-upon moment for this program. Hooray, the Sooners won a game, but they did it against a backup quarterback and still gave up 42 points to said backup quarterback. So if we’re going off moral victories, there are none to be had here. I will say that after scoring 58 points combined in those three losses, to put up 52 against Kansas was a godsend for the Sooners. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel had his best performance of the season by throwing for 403 yards and two touchdowns, as Oklahoma racked up 701 total yards of offense in a dominant, balanced outing. Eric Gray ran for 176 yards and two touchdowns, and Jovante Barnes also ran for two touchdowns but had just 69 nice yards rushing. Top receiver Marvin Mims caught nine passes for 106 yards, while Brayden Willis also crossed the century mark with 102 yards and a touchdown. But we need to focus on the important things here: Oklahoma gave up 42 points despite putting up 700 yards of total offense. Who cares if it was the 18th straight time Oklahoma beat Kansas? It felt like a huge L like most of their games this season.
The Oklahoma Sooners are not back yet, and that will be proven on Saturday. The Sooners ended their three-game losing streak on Saturday with a 52-42 loss to the banged-up No. 19 Kansas Jayhawks a week ago in what should be viewed as a frowned-upon moment for this program. Hooray, the Sooners won a game, but they did it against a backup quarterback and still gave up 42 points to said backup quarterback. So if we’re going off moral victories, there are none to be had here. I will say that after scoring 58 points combined in those three losses, to put up 52 against Kansas was a godsend for the Sooners. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel had his best performance of the season by throwing for 403 yards and two touchdowns, as Oklahoma racked up 701 total yards of offense in a dominant, balanced outing. Eric Gray ran for 176 yards and two touchdowns, and Jovante Barnes also ran for two touchdowns but had just 69 nice yards rushing. Top receiver Marvin Mims caught nine passes for 106 yards, while Brayden Willis also crossed the century mark with 102 yards and a touchdown. But we need to focus on the important things here: Oklahoma gave up 42 points despite putting up 700 yards of total offense. Who cares if it was the 18th straight time Oklahoma beat Kansas? It felt like a huge L like most of their games this season.
"I love seeing our guys in victory formation there at the end," Oklahoma coach BrentVenables said. "It was a good, hard fought win, dragging ourselves off the mat and getting back on the saddle."
The Iowa State Cyclones aren’t freefalling like the Sooners, but are coming into this one losers of four straight games, all by one score, and all four to teams who have been ranked at one point in time. Iowa State is coming off a bye week in which it had time to reflect following a 24-21 loss to No. 22 Texas on Oct. 15. It was a 21-17 lead for Iowa State with 11 minutes to go in the fourth quarter, but Texas eventually found its way back to lead and put a stingy defense across from an offense that was absolutely shook from the get-go. Hunter Dekkers actually had a good game, as the Iowa State quarterback threw for 329 yards and two touchdowns while also running for 30 yards and another score, as well. The problem with that last statement is Iowa State’s leading rusher was, in fact, Dekkers. Deon Silas ran for 25 yards on 10 carries, and Iowa State as a whole ran for 74 yards on 28 carries. Xavier Hutchinson caught 10 passes for 154 yards continuing to be the stud receiver he is, and Jaylin Noel hauled in 94 yards and both of Dekkers’ touchdown passes.
"I'm so proud of him," coach Matt Campbell said of his quarterback. "It's hard to battle through the growth process when the ball is in your hands every play."
Prediction
The Cyclones are the 104th best scoring offense in the country. And yet somehow, I feel like they can dominate Oklahoma from a standpoint of making more big plays. Again, to win just by 10 points after putting up 700 total yards is not a recipe for success and I find it hard to believe that Oklahoma has learned anything after barely beating a backup quarterback. Iowa State by 3
Betting trends
Oklahoma is 16-13 ATS in its last 29 games overall.
Oklahoma is 4-5 ATS in its last nine road games.
Iowa State is 11-11 ATS against conference opponents the last three years.
Iowa State is 18-36 ATS since 1992 after gaining 125 rushing yards or less in two straight games.
Statistical leaders
Oklahoma:
Passing: Dillon Gabriel -- 1,618 yards, 13 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Eric Gray -- 695 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Marvin Mims -- 542 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Two tied -- 4 INT
Iowa State:
Passing: Hunter Dekkers -- 1,843 yards, 13 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Jirehl Brock -- 398 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Xavier Hutchinson -- 758 yards, 5 TD
Defense: Will McDonald -- 3.5 sacks
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Oklahoma Sooners - Iowa State Cyclones prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
